2025-2026 ENSO

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh i see interesting thank you

[GaWx]

 The July 30 mb QBO was released today at -19.99 (nothing surprising).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The July 30 mb QBO was released today at -19.99 (nothing surprising).

The extreme QBO fluctuations over recent years is very interesting. It will be interesting to see what ENSO does over the next few years. 

-QBO if it holds for the cold season has a warm Stratosphere correlation at about 0.3. That doesn't automatically mean cold though, as the composite of warm Stratosphere Winters is actually +temp anomaly for the Northeast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

RONI should be pretty comfortable La Nina though? Like a -0.8 to -0.9 peak. That's similar to a 1950 year having ONI of -0.8/9. RONI has led for H5 correlations over ONI the last 3 Winters, at least. 

I understand all of that, but just saying....that rule is geared toward technical La Niña seasons. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The extreme QBO fluctuations over recent years is very interesting. It will be interesting to see what ENSO does over the next few years. 

-QBO if it holds for the cold season has a warm Stratosphere correlation at about 0.3. That doesn't automatically mean cold though, as the composite of warm Stratosphere Winters is actually +temp anomaly for the Northeast. 

What isn't in modern times???

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What isn't in modern times???

My date of birth. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My goodness that cycle lasted for 30 years?? So "decadal" isn't so much a literal decade but just however many decades it lasts? 

(I'm sure you would've loved it back then...lol Although the 60s were snowy for the east)

Last 4 or 5 days the daily PDO rose from -3.5 to -2.73 on the World Climate Service site, so it's too early to get too concerned for this winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What isn't in modern times???

It's just a little surprising overall.. there is a +15 to +45 day lag (at different times of the year) for -NAO, which typically delivers cold to the eastern US, but the surrounding times are apparently warm. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The big story this warm season (May-July) has been the +AO

analogs

I've been saying how cold H5 in the Summer isn't actually that bad, as the following Winters seem to have some good arctic air present. The roll forward of those top 20 analogs, which is big time ++AO, is not actually a warm look.. neutral to slightly below US Temps for Dec-March

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand all of that, but just saying....that rule is geared toward technical La Niña seasons. 

Yeah but if we are equal to a Weak La Nina in the 50s-70s, why not say La Nina? The relative index is relevant for Hadley Cell interactions, as the flux occurs more around the global temperature than with it imo

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah but if we are equal to a Weak La Nina in the 50s-70s, why not say La Nina? The relative index is relevant for Hadley Cell interactions, as the flux occurs more around the global temperature than with it imo

I am considering it a weak La Niña. If you follow my blog that would be clear....just like I considered last year borderline moderate. All I am saying is that the ONI is one factor that should weigh in to how heavily you factor that indicator. I'm not using the CPC definition of a La Niña to forecast a big winter or anything....but I think it would give me pause in using that rule as my primary rationale for going with another death-star of a season.

I think seasonal forecasters in general (not directed at you) need to be mindful of being a bit more nuanced and less rigid in their forecasting conceptualizations.

[snowman19]

I am considering it a weak La Niña. If you follow my blog that would be clear....just like I considered last year borderline moderate. All I am saying is that the ONI is one factor that should weigh in to how heavily you factor that indicator. I'm not using the CPC definition of a La Niña to forecast a big winter or anything....but I think it would give me pause in using that rule as my primary rationale for going with another death-star of a season.
I think seasonal forecasters in general (not directed at you) need to be mindful of being a bit more nuanced and less rigid in their forecasting conceptualizations.

I think 2 things are blatantly obvious at this point…1) We are going to have a -ENSO winter, very likely weak La Niña regardless of what the “official” ONI number says 2) We are going to have a solidly (very possibly strong) -PDO winter….

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think 2 things are blatantly obvious at this point…1) We are going to have a -ENSO winter, very likely weak La Niña regardless of what the “official” ONI number says 2) We are going to have a solidly (very possibly strong) -PDO winter….

Whatever we decide to call it, this June and July featured the strongest continuous 40N mid-latitude ridge from Japan across the U.S. and North Atlantic to Europe that we have seen before. It’s what’s ultimately driving these record -PDO values and record warmth around the Northeast this summer. This ridge has been much stronger than we have ever seen from past La Ninas or -PDO patterns. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Negative anomaly max is almost greater in that image! Why not say "The +AO is at least partially driving it"? The +AO that has appeared much more frequent after the major solar flares staring in May 2024. That's a big negative anomaly on your map, bluewave. Relatively though the ridge near Japan is probably 1.4x greater. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Negative anomaly max is almost greater in that image! Why not say "The +AO is at least partially driving it"? The +AO that has appeared much more frequent after the major solar flares staring in May 2024. That's a big negative anomaly on your map, bluewave. Relatively though the ridge near Japan is probably 1.4x greater. 

I wouldn’t say the +AO is driving it since the ridge in the North Pacific beneath the -EPO and ridge north of Alaska is even stronger than the one we just had under the +AO in the Northeast. We have seen the ridge in the Northeast with the record -5 AO back in February. So while the higher latitude teleconnections shift around, this mid-latitude ridge has been the one constant.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have seen the ridge in the Northeast with the record -5 AO back in February. So while the higher latitude teleconnections shift around, this mid-latitude ridge has been the one constant.

A 90N ridge will create a trough most likely around 45N. Sometimes a stronger relative trough will happen at 45-50N, and on the east or west side of that there will be mid-latitude ridging. That's what happened in February. the North Atlantic trough under a 90N ridge (Atlantic trough at 45-50N) was -300dm, and for latitude/height, a greater anomaly. 

I get that the Pacific pattern looks more independent of the +AO, but it does correlate to -PNA 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A 90N ridge will create a trough most likely around 45N. Sometimes a stronger relative trough will happen at 45-50N, and on the east or west side of that there will be mid-latitude ridging. That's what happened in February. the North Atlantic trough under a 90N ridge (Atlantic trough at 45-50N) was -300dm, and for latitude/height, a greater anomaly. 

I get that the Pacific pattern looks more independent of the +AO, but it does correlate to -PNA 

Last February would have been a much better pattern for the area around NYC if this mid-latitude ridge from Hawaii to Bermuda wasn’t so overpowering. It muted the -EPO -WPO and Greenland block influence.

Back in February 2014 the -WPO-EPO and Greenland block was able to dominate so it was much snowier around NYC.

February 2025 had the first -5 AO and -5 SD Greenland block cutter that gave record snows to Toronto and Montreal instead of around NYC Metro.
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You can see how there was a parade of troughs though just below the Polar regions. Wavelengths tightened up and it put a ridge underneath of it, but there was some very cold air in the Midwest this last February. And Japan had a pretty cool Winter. Why do you think now we have somewhat permanent ridging in the mid-latitudes? 

You keep saying -5 AO, but it's simple wave physics: the ridge was too far north! That pattern is not a mystery to me. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You can see how there was a parade of troughs though just below the Polar regions. Wavelengths tightened up and it put a ridge underneath of it, but there was some very cold air in the Midwest this last February. And Japan had a pretty cool Winter. Why do you think now we have somewhat permanent ridging in the mid-latitudes? 

You keep saying -5 AO, but it's simple wave physics: the ridge was too far north! That pattern is not a mystery to me. 

The higher latitude ridge near Greenland was not any more further north than in the past when had KU snowstorm tracks as the comparison to 2014 snowed. But what changed is that the subtropical ridge was too far north. So the gradient got pushed to our north with the heavy snows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think 2 things are blatantly obvious at this point…1) We are going to have a -ENSO winter, very likely weak La Niña regardless of what the “official” ONI number says 2) We are going to have a solidly (very possibly strong) -PDO winter….

Agreed on both accounts. I'm simply distinguishging between an ostensible La Nina, and an actual event per CPC guidelines.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That was a ridiculous -WPO in Feb 2014.. almost +200dm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You can see how there was a parade of troughs though just below the Polar regions. Wavelengths tightened up and it put a ridge underneath of it, but there was some very cold air in the Midwest this last February. And Japan had a pretty cool Winter. Why do you think now we have somewhat permanent ridging in the mid-latitudes? 

You keep saying -5 AO, but it's simple wave physics: the ridge was too far north! That pattern is not a mystery to me. 

 

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The higher latitude ridge near Greenland was not any more further north than in the past when had KU snowstorm tracks as the comparison to 2014 snowed. But what changed is that the subtropical ridge was too far north. So the gradient got pushed to our north with the heavy snows.

The truth is its probably both, but each side struggles to acknowledge nuance, which is why we get the "new climate" and "denier" (I know Chuck isn't denying CC) dichotomy that fuels this eternal/ubiquitous debate.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

The truth its probably both, but each side struggles to acknowledge nuance, which is why we get the "new climate" and "denier" (I know Chuck isn't denying CC) dichotomy that fuels this eternal debate.

I fully understand. We all came up in the era when the higher latitude teleconnections ruled the roost and the mid-latitudes generally followed that lead. But we have been seeing more influence from these subtropical ridges over the last decade. So the nuisance you mention is recognizing the larger role for the mid-latitudes. So sometimes the ENSO and higher latitudes take more of a back seat. But everything is having some influence so we can tie together these multiple threads into one coherent pattern.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Until a October MJO wave messes up the whole system lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I fully understand. We all came up in the era when the higher latitude teleconnections ruled the roost and the mid-latitudes generally followed that lead. But we have been seeing more influence from these subtropical ridges over the last decade. So the nuisance you mention is recognizing the larger role for the mid-latitudes. So sometimes the ENSO and higher latitudes take more of a back seat. But everything is having some influence so we can tie together these multiple threads into one coherent pattern.

The nuance that I mention is recognizing that although higher latitude teleconnnections may no longer rule the roost, they are not entirely ineffective, either.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The nuance that I mention is recognizing that although higher latitude teleconnnections may no longer rule the roost, they are not entirely ineffective, either.

Never said they are ineffective. But the effective gradient does shift north from where it has been. This is why some areas over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast north of the gradient have done better in the snowfall department than the coastal plain.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I fully understand. We all came up in the era when the higher latitude teleconnections ruled the roost and the mid-latitudes generally followed that lead. But we have been seeing more influence from these subtropical ridges over the last decade. So the nuisance you mention is recognizing the larger role for the mid-latitudes. So sometimes the ENSO and higher latitudes take more of a back seat. But everything is having some influence so we can tie together these multiple threads into one coherent pattern.

We hit 80* on Jan 26, 2024, under a -350dm, +3-4 std +NAO. +NAO's were responsible for last Summer's heat too, and you can see how the ridge is under the Greenland trough this Summer as well. If the historical correlation is -0.5 for -NAO and +0.5 for +NAO, it's just recently been -0.2 for -NAO and +0.8 for +NAO.. but the overall flux pos/neg of the earth's circulation remains the same.. the changes aren't that great. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Never said they are ineffective. But the effective gradient does shift north from where it has been. This is why some areas over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast north of the gradient have done better in the snowfall department than the coastal plain.

Flip the WPO and poof.....it would head south again. I'm talking about on a seasonal level, not a two-week snippet in February.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Flip the WPO and poof.....it would head south again. I'm talking about on a seasonal level, not a two-week snippet in February.

Last February was out best -WPO in years but its influence was muted by the stronger subtropical ridge forcing the gradient too far north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Last February was out best -WPO in years but its influence was muted by the stronger subtropical ridge forcing the gradient too far north. 

It was also a decidedly +NAO.