2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, the west has gotten hotter and drier while the east has gotten wetter and warmer (warmer refers to minimums while hotter refers to maximums).

But in this context 1995 is when we switched to a +AMO

 

Many areas in the East have also seen a steady increase in 90° days over the years. In the old days it was rare for areas to reach 40 days of 90°. Now it’s occurring much more frequently.

 

 

[snowman19]

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Many areas in the East have also seen a steady increase in 90° days over the years. In the old days it was rare for areas to reach 40 days of 90°. Now it’s occurring much more frequently.

 

 

Hopefully that extends to our area, it seems to be a much stronger trend to our west.

40 90 degree days is a bit too much, but I want to see 30 90 degree days per year more regularly here. It only happened once here, in 2010.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

lmao another year where raindances thoughts from the spring about the fall is the most liked post in this thread, and it's turning out to be opposite. Not saying it's wrong or anything, I just think it's funny. Last year the most liked post was the possibility of a +PDO transition, and October ended up having the most negative reading on record. Now the most liked post is about a possible El Nino lol. raindance is usually pretty sharp with his analysis though. 

But he loves to call out the speculative posts of others from months earlier that didn't turn out to be correct...not to mention routinely make baseless claims of plagarism.

Yea, he wasn't argumentative at all. I get @so_whats_happening's frustration with the bickering, but the his raindance reference was one of the least insightful posts in the entire thread given he was one of the more incendiary posters.

I agree regarding the quality of his analysis for the most part.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we were discussing this prospect a few weeks ago when this new paper was released. The authors have been interviewed about their findings since then. The shift to persistent 500mb ridging and SST warming across the mid-latitude Pacific may be an inherent response to a warming world which the research indicated occurred in previous warming eras for the earth. If we continue to see this block of warming and 500mb ridging continuing into the 2030s, then the new model simulation that was run could be onto something. Time will tell.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072025/southwestern-drought-likely-to-continue-through-2100/

But in this case, the phenomenon can last far longer than the usual 30-year cycle of the PDO.

But if, as we hypothesize, this is a forced change in the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, this will be sustained into the future, and we need to start looking at this as a shift, instead of just the result of bad luck.”

Todd was able analyze drought conditions during the mid-Holocene period 6,000 years ago, a period in Earth’s history when the Northern Pacific warmed and the Southwestern U.S. experienced hundreds of years of drought. 

That led to a warming of the North Pacific that was similar to the PDO that drives drought in the Southwest, but in this case, the drying lasted for centuries. “As soon as we saw that, you know, we started thinking about what’s happening today,” Todd said.

Using an ensemble of historical and future climate models forecasting climate and precipitation patterns until 2100, they found the PDO-like negative phase continues through this century. But unlike the mid-Holocene period’s warming, which was brought on by vegetation change, today’s is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Certain models revealed that the change in the ocean pattern was less about vegetation absorbing solar radiation, Todd said, and more about warming in general. 

In many ways, Richter said, what people are seeing on the ground is outpacing science.

 

 

 

Completely agree with your bolded take.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is why I have been saying my thoughts about a cold-neutral may turn out to be wrong and we actually do see an official La Niña. Also, if you look at that subsurface signature, it’s definitely not arguing for an east-based event. Not saying it can’t change by the end of fall but that does not look like an east-based subsurface right now, (Nino 1+2 has been skewed warm for months) which may not really matter all that much if this -ENSO event stays weak…..

It certainly doesn't argue for a Modoki. I agree that it isn't east-based in the sense that it matches up with the most extreme members of that grouping, but region 1.2 is so small that it doesn't weight the index much. When considering the subsurface cold pool is not below region 4 and is under region 3, the EMI would be biased slightly east, as the JAMSTEC data forecasts. I do agree that it isn't a huge deal since it will be so weak.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Summers at PHL since 2010:

Colder than the 1981-2010 average: 2014, 2023 (although this one ends above average if we use JAS instead of JJA)

Warmer than the 1981-2010 average, but colder than the 1991-2020 average: 2013, 2017

Warmer than the 1991-2020 average: all other years (2010-2012, 2015, 2016, 2018-2022, 2024)

Looking ahead, it looks like 2018 (which is only 0.2 degrees above the 1991-2020 average) will fall below the 2001-2030 average. Along with years like 2001, 2006, and 2008, which were at the time Top 10 warmest summers on record.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@snowman19 The fact that region 1.2 is so small skews the EMI away from heavily east based events....if you look at this graphic I made of EMI rankings since 1980, the only event in positive territory is 1985, but weakly positive (east-based) events are still considered east-based. The Jamstec ensemble mean forecast is most similar to 1995, 2017 and 2021.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully that extends to our area, it seems to be a much stronger trend to our west.

40 90 degree days is a bit too much, but I want to see 30 90 degree days per year more regularly here. It only happened once here, in 2010.

You WANT more 90s? Glutton for punishment 

Here the dustbowl saw a massive increase from previous decades then calmed down some in the 1960s.

Avg annual days of 90+ at Detroit (1870s and 2020s not full decade).

1870s- 4
1880s- 5
1890s- 9
1900s- 6
1910s- 11
1920s- 9
1930s- 19
1940s- 16
1950s- 15
1960s- 11
1970s- 12
1980s- 13
1990s- 12
2000s- 10
2010s- 16
2020s- 12

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You WANT more 90s? Glutton for punishment 

Here the dustbowl saw a massive increase from previous decades then calmed down some in the 1960s.

Avg annual days of 90+ at Detroit (1870s and 2020s not full decade).

1870s- 4
1880s- 5
1890s- 9
1900s- 6
1910s- 11
1920s- 9
1930s- 19
1940s- 16
1950s- 15
1960s- 11
1970s- 12
1980s- 13
1990s- 12
2000s- 10
2010s- 16
2020s- 12

I noticed the 1940s and 1950s were pretty high around your area too.  Then a second spike in the 2010s.

I think the increased dew points means fewer 90 degree days in the new era.

I don't have NYC numbers for 90 degree days offhand, but I do know that the 40s and 50s were peak 90/100 day weather here, with a nod to 1966 being the hottest year in the 60s.  Then we had another peak in the 1990s.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Summers at PHL since 2010:

Colder than the 1981-2010 average: 2014, 2023 (although this one ends above average if we use JAS instead of JJA)

Warmer than the 1981-2010 average, but colder than the 1991-2020 average: 2013, 2017

Warmer than the 1991-2020 average: all other years (2010-2012, 2015, 2016, 2018-2022, 2024)

Looking ahead, it looks like 2018 (which is only 0.2 degrees above the 1991-2020 average) will fall below the 2001-2030 average. Along with years like 2001, 2006, and 2008, which were at the time Top 10 warmest summers on record.

 

1983 and 1991 and 1993 and 1999 and 2002 and  2010 were extremely hot for you guys too

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1983 and 1991 and 1993 and 1999 and 2002 and  2010 were extremely hot for you guys too

 

Believe it or not, 1983 is already below average (compared to 1981-2010 and 1991-2020). 1999 is slightly above average on 1991-2020 (it will be close on whether it stays above 2001-2030).

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I noticed the 1940s and 1950s were pretty high around your area too.  Then a second spike in the 2010s.

I think the increased dew points means fewer 90 degree days in the new era.

I don't have NYC numbers for 90 degree days offhand, but I do know that the 40s and 50s were peak 90/100 day weather here, with a nod to 1966 being the hottest year in the 60s.  Then we had another peak in the 1990s.

 

 

Yes. Ive been saying that for years. Laughing when I see some article predicting a magical increase from an average of 12-13 days per year to like 40 in a decade or two. Been seeing that garbage since the 1990s. Its not happening with increasing dewpoints. We had a spike in the 2010s after a dip in the 2000s. Just two years ago, 2023 became the first year since 1915 to not have a temp hotter than 90F.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Believe it or not, 1983 is already below average (compared to 1981-2010 and 1991-2020). 1999 is slightly above average on 1991-2020 (it will be close on whether it stays above 2001-2030).

Just going by number of 90 degree days, 1983 had our record prior to 2010.  JFK did this amazing thing in 1983, 100 degrees in both July and August and then we hit 99 on 9/11/83 with 7 90 degree days just in September, 37 for the season.

1983 was hot June, July, August and September.

I don't go by average temperatures, NWS ranks summer heat by number of 90 degree days.  We can extend that to very hot summers by ranking them by 95 degree days or even 100 degree days.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes. Ive been saying that for years. Laughing when I see some article predicting a magical increase from an average of 12-13 days per year to like 40 in a decade or two. Been seeing that garbage since the 1990s. Its not happening with increasing dewpoints. I havent run the numbers of 95+ but those are probably even lower. 

our record for 90 and 95 and 100 degree days is now 2010, but before that it was 1983 and before that 1966 and before that 1949, 1953, 1955 hold those records.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

our record for 90 and 95 and 100 degree days is now 2010, but before that it was 1983 and before that 1966 and before that 1949, 1953, 1955 hold those records.

 

Our avg # of 95F+ days per decade

1870s- 1
1880s- 1
1890s- 2
1900s- 0
1910s- 2           
1920s- 1             
1930s- 6          
1940s- 4           
1950s- 4           
1960s- 1           
1970s- 2          
1980s- 2  
1990s- 2    
2000s- 1                 
2010s- 3
2020s- 1

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Our avg # of 95F+ days per decade

1870s- 1
1880s- 1
1890s- 2
1900s- 0
1910s- 2           
1920s- 1             
1930s- 6          
1940s- 4           
1950s- 4           
1960s- 1           
1970s- 2          
1980s- 2  
1990s- 2    
2000s- 1                 
2010s- 3
2020s- 1

I guess you rarely hit 100, was the last time in the 1950s?

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

our record for 90 and 95 and 100 degree days is now 2010, but before that it was 1983 and before that 1966 and before that 1949, 1953, 1955 hold those records.

 

NYC average 90F+ per decade. They too saw a big jump in the 1930s, but not as extreme as Detroit or other areas of the midwest, closer to the effects of the dustbowl.

1870s- 10
1880s- 8
1890s- 15
1900s- 10
1910s- 12
1920s- 13
1930s- 19
1940s- 20
1950s- 18
1960s- 18
1970s- 17
1980s- 20
1990s- 20
2000s- 12
2010s- 19
2020s- 17
 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

NYC average 90F+ per decade. They too saw a big jump in the 1930s, but not as extreme as Detroit or other areas of the midwest, closer to the effects of the dustbowl.

1870s- 10
1880s- 8
1890s- 15
1900s- 10
1910s- 12
1920s- 13
1930s- 19
1940s- 20
1950s- 18
1960s- 18
1970s- 17
1980s- 20
1990s- 20
2000s- 12
2010s- 19
2020s- 17
 

wow that is big but looks like they leveled off after the 1940s and even dipped for a bit in the 2000s and then went back up to 1930s-1940s levels during the 2010s.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

NYC average 90F+ per decade. They too saw a big jump in the 1930s, but not as extreme as Detroit or other areas of the midwest, closer to the effects of the dustbowl.

1870s- 10
1880s- 8
1890s- 15
1900s- 10
1910s- 12
1920s- 13
1930s- 19
1940s- 20
1950s- 18
1960s- 18
1970s- 17
1980s- 20
1990s- 20
2000s- 12
2010s- 19
2020s- 17
 

1890s were really hot too, there was a historic 10 day heatwave in 1896 that killed 1,500 people in NYC.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I guess you rarely hit 100, was the last time in the 1950s?

Yes rarely, although it was WAY more common 1930-1955.

All occurrances of 100F+ on record:

1878- 1
1887- 1
1911- 1
1918- 2
1930- 1
1931- 1
1933- 1
1934- 2
1936- 8
1939- 1
1941- 1
1946- 1
1952- 1
1953- 2
1955- 2
1977- 2
1988- 5
1995- 1
2011- 1
2012- 3
 

So since records began in 1874, it has hit 100F+ a total of 38 times. 21 of those 38 came in a 26 year span 1930-1955, with the remaining 17 spread out among the other 124 years of record.

Another way to look at it...in 150 years of record...11 years between 1930-1955 saw temps of 100F+. The entire remaining 124 years of record only saw such temps in a total of 9 years.

The heat of that era - and heat deaths - were a major news story. Several of the dustbowl winters were putrid as well, but by far the heatwaves were the biggest impact.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1890s were really hot too, there was a historic 10 day heatwave in 1896 that killed 1,500 people in NYC.

Wow thats really bad.

The July 8-14, 1936 heatwave, which locally featured 7 straight days of 100F+ and a state record of 112F in northern lower MI...killed 285 in Detroit, 579 in Michigan, and over 3800 in the U.S.

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1890s were really hot too, there was a historic 10 day heatwave in 1896 that killed 1,500 people in NYC.

It was extra bad in NYC but it was bad in many places. Here are some headlines from the Detroit Free Press Aug 9-12, 1896

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-5c now showing up in the TAO/Triton subsurface. That is "Moderate-Nina like".