2025-2026 ENSO

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why is the western pacific running the show and why isn't the eastern pacific warming as quickly?

Heat drives the weather, oceans store enormous amounts of heat and the western Pacific is currently where that stored heat is greatest in our largest ocean basin, so it drives the weather patterns. We may be in a long term -PDO cycle but I’m pretty confident CC is driving it to some degree. Someone who studies this more closely can definitely elaborate more. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Heat drives the weather, oceans store enormous amounts of heat and the western Pacific is currently where that stored heat is greatest in our largest ocean basin, so it drives the weather patterns. We may be in a long term -PDO cycle but I’m pretty confident CC is driving it to some degree. Someone who studies this more closely can definitely elaborate more. 

Maybe the heat from the continents is heating the western basins more quickly? The same thing seems to be happening in the Western Atlantic.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

anyone getting close to 130 degrees out there lol?

I think they are going to get well into the 120s in some places in the Middle East. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think they are going to get well into the 120s in some places in the Middle East. 

The usual hot suspect is Ahwaz in Iran.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The usual hot suspect is Ahwaz in Iran.

Starts in 3-4 days, and models keep Iran area very above average through 384hr

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Starts in 3-4 days, and models keep Iran area very above average through 384hr

I'm trying to think of the other places that are extremely hot.  Kuwait of course, and Turbat and Sibi and Mohenjo Daro in Pakistan have all been 128 or higher.

130 seems to be a barrier that no one has ever been able to exceed outside of very short heat bursts (like the one in Kopperl Texas in 1960 that caused a temperature of 140 degrees with burnt crops, burnt trees and even burned doors.)

[LibertyBell]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopperl,_Texas

 

Shortly after midnight on June 15, 1960, a very rare meteorological phenomenon, a heat burst, struck the community when a dying thunderstorm collapsed over Kopperl. The storm had rained itself out, and with little to no precipitation to cool the resulting downdrafts, superheated air descended upon the community in the form of extremely hot wind gusts up to 75 mph (121 km/h). The temperature increased rapidly, reportedly peaking near 140 °F (60 °C),^[3] 20° above the official all-time high for the state of Texas and exceeding the highest official temperature recorded on Earth. The storm, known as "Satan's Storm" by locals, soon became part of local folklore.^[4][5][6]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm trying to think of the other places that are extremely hot.  Kuwait of course, and Turbat and Sibi and Mohenjo Daro in Pakistan have all been 128 or higher.

130 seems to be a barrier that no one has ever been able to exceed outside of very short heat bursts (like the one in Kopperl Texas in 1960 that caused a temperature of 140 degrees with burnt crops, burnt trees and even burned doors.)

It's probably going to break records into the 120s in quite a few places. I wonder if people will post Twitter links here when it happens. I've been following models for a very long time, and I've never seen such a strong, elongated, persistent ridge this close to warm season on that side of the globe..

[snowman19]

I am not at all implying 2014 is a good Pacific match....all I am saying is that I don't think it will be a bad arctic analog...that said, I won't be suprised if get a decent look around AK next season, just not to the extent of 2014.

If we see a cold-ENSO (cold-neutral/weak La Niña), along with the almost certain -QBO, I’m not so sure we see the strong poleward ridging that we did last winter in the PAC. The +QBO/cold-ENSO we had last winter supported the poleward ridging we saw. -QBO/cold-ENSO favors a flatter, equatorial PAC ridge.

As far as the arctic and Atlantic, I would agree with you. The solar/geomag states, QBO evolution and the North Atlantic SSTA profile, at this very early stage obviously, would seemingly not be very supportive of big high latitude blocking in those domains

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we see a cold-ENSO (cold-neutral/weak La Niña), along with the almost certain -QBO, I’m not so sure we see the strong poleward ridging that we did last winter in the PAC. The +QBO/cold-ENSO we had last winter supported the poleward ridging we saw. -QBO/cold-ENSO favors a flatter, equatorial PAC ridge.

As far as the arctic and Atlantic, I would agree with you. The solar/geomag states, QBO evolution and the North Atlantic SSTA profile, at this very early stage obviously, would seemingly not be very supportive of big high latitude blocking in those domains

I don't know where you get this from....

[snowman19]

I don't know where you get this from....

HM, in the extensive blog he wrote up right after the 11-12 winter titled “GLAAMOUROUS”. Also, Eric Webb actually touched on this association a few times last fall and cited a bunch of studies on it

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

HM, in the extensive blog he wrote up right after the 11-12 winter titled “GLAAMOUROUS”. Also, Eric Webb actually touched on this association a few times last fall and cited a bunch of studies on it

Well, 2011-2012 was a Modoki La Nina and I'm willing to bet that much of the balance of that data set was, as well.

I'll sell that...that isn't to say that I am necessarily sold on poleward ridging or a good winter...I just don't buy the QBO connection. I buy the weaker/easterly La Nina poleward ridging data.....2000-2001, 2005-2006 and 2017-2018 are three relatively recent -QBO negative ENSO seasons that featured plenty of poleward Aleutian ridging.

[snowman19]

Well, 2011-2012 was a Modoki La Nina and I'm willing to bet that much of the balance of that data set was, as well. I'll sell that-

Unfortunately I can’t find HM’s blog anymore but here is Eric Webb:

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unfortunately I can’t find HM’s blog anymore but here is Eric Webb:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yea, its not that I didn't believe you...I'm just not sure I buy it as being a huge factor, which isn't to say it has zero creedence...its just that its something I feel is easily overrided by other factors. But again...will I be shocked if this season has a flat Aleutian ridge? No, at least not at this early juncture.

[40/70 Benchmark]

He was definitely wrong about the -WPO (as was I)...that part didn't work out. It was all EPO..I expected the opposite, too, incidentally.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Add 2021-2022 to the list of -ENSO/-QBO...forgot that one. That Aleutian ridge looks about as flat as Pablo Sabdoval's waistline after the Sox signed him in 2012.

[bluewave]

The -WPO blocking in the Bering Sea during February was overpowered by the very fast Pacific Jet and strong Southeast Ridge. 
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The -WPO blocking in the Bering Sea during February was overpowered by the very fast Pacific Jet and strong Southeast Ridge. 
 

 

 

I'm speaking of the season in the aggregate...it was decidedly +WPO.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm speaking of the season in the aggregate...it was decidedly +WPO.

The constant jet extensions led to wild fluctuations in the WPO,EPO, PNA, AO, and maybe even the NAO. This would have been a great winter before the big warming jump in 15-16. We need a significant relaxation of this jet in coming winters for at least a small rebound off the record low snowfall and cuttter regime of the last 7 years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The WPO and PNA were actually pretty consistently positive, and the EPO negative last season. I am not necessarily disagreeing with you in general, just speaking of last year. The AO/NAO were variable, agreed.

Thing was that the PNA was consistently focused along and just off of the west coast last year, which is has never and will never be favorable for major east coast snow events.

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The WPO and PNA were actually pretty consistently positive, and the EPO negative last season. I am not necessarily disagreeing with you in general, just speaking of last year. The AO/NAO were variable, agreed.

Thing was that the PNA was consistently focused along and just off of the west coast last year, which is has never and will never be favorable for major east coast snow events.

The EPO was only consistently negative in January. As the big swings in December and February  lead to more neutral those months. Unfortunately, the big snowstorm in January got suppressed down to the Gulf Coast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPO was only consistently negative in January. As the big swings in December and January lead to more neutral those months. Unfortunately, the big snowstorm in January got suppressed down to the Gulf Coast. 

Yea, that was an instance of the PNA ridge beging just off of the west coast. I'm sure that the active jet didn't help matters, but the positioning of the PNA ridges was consistently an issue.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that was an instance of the PNA ridge beging just off of the west coast. I'm sure that the active jet didn't help matters, but the positioning of the PNA ridges was consistently an issue.

The +PNA ridge worked out for us in January 2022 in that position just off the West Coast in conjunction with the solid MJO 8.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The +PNA ridge worked out for us in January 2022 in that position just off the West Coast in conjunction with the solid MJO 8.

 

First of all, that is a monthly mean composite, but the ridge was actually a bit more favorably positioned during the timeframe that the blizzard took place.

 

Secondly, the better positioning of the ridge in conjunction with the strongly negative WPO that was in place that month (and season) made that pattern more conducive than this past January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Believe it or not, sometimes the big storm doesn't work out and the reason why isn't directly attributable to climate change.

Even in those two monthly composites, its easy to see that the January 2022 pattern was much more suportive relative to January 2025, when the lowest heights were right over the NE. The vortex was a little further NW, over SE Canada in 2022, which was less supressive. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First of all, that is a monthly mean composite, but the ridge was actually a bit more favorably positioned during the timeframe that the blizzard took place.

 

Secondly, the better positioning of the ridge in conjunction with the strongly negative WPO that was in place that month (and season) made that pattern more conducive than this past January.

That ridge position in the means off the West Coast in January 2025 was able to build into the Rockies later in the month like you pointed out in 2022. But the Pacific Jet carving out a deeper Baja trough than we saw in 2022 was acting as a kicker. So the trough near the Northeast was a little too far east for a repeat of the late January 2022 blizzard. Too many competing marine heatwaves driving the pattern this past January to allow the pristine MJO 8 forcing pattern that we got back in 2022.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That ridge position in the means off the West Coast in January 2025 was able to build into the Rockies later in the month like you pointed out in 2022. But the Pacific Jet carving out a deeper Baja trough than we saw in 2022 was acting as a kicker. So the trough near the Northeast was a little too far east for a repeat of the late January 2022 blizzard. Too many competing marine heatwaves driving the pattern this past January to allow the pristine MJO 8 forcing pattern that we got back in 2022.

 

It was off the west coast when the storm took place, which is all that matters. Yes, the jet was a factor, but so isn't the poor positioning of the ridge. I don't know why you inexoprably seek agreement on a 100% CC attribution for everything.

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was off the west coast when the storm took place, which is all that matters. Yes, the jet was a factor, but so isn't the poor positioning of the ridge. I don't know why you inexoprably seek agreement on a 100% CC attribution for everything.

Without CC all ridges were perfect and we never missed storms.  Obviously joking, but that is the way it reads all the time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Without CC all ridges were perfect and we never missed storms.  Obviously joking, but that is the way it reads all the time.

At the end of the day, the snow drought is a product of CC enhancing what already would have been a very hostile multidecadal base state. I don't know what is unreasonable about that...jesus, CC is so politicized that its now just like actual politics in that everyone is so polarized that its the few moderates that bare the brunt of the cross fire.

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At the end of the day, the snow drought is a product of CC enhancing what already would have been a very hostile multidecadal base state. I don't know what is unreasonable about that...jesus, CC is so politicized that its just like actual politics now that everyone is so polarized that its the few moderates that bare the brunt of the cross fire.

We went through a great stretch that most living in our area never experienced and might never again. Some said that was the new norm too.