2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Can you do Solar min out to +24 months?

Solar Min is included in the maps. It's Max minus Min 

If the Solar is 500 (Min) and Max is 1500 (Max) and the average is 1000, Min is [-500] and Max is [+500]

The map is default positive phase, with both included, so for the Min, just flip the correlation coefficient around (+0.3 over Greenland vs -0.3). But it's also part of the same map. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

To bluewave's point, here is the following Winter +1 year after a +PNA December

December +12 months

January +13 months

February +14 months

Somewhat of a signal there for warmer than average temps in the eastern 1/2. I didn't sort it out by negative ENSO, but the general gives you a lot more data points. It's on ok signal (ENSO usually changes state the year after a relative PNA Winter, which I will say again is interesting. It's counter-intuitive)

 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Solar Min is included in the maps. It's Max minus Min 

If the Solar is 500 (Min) and Max is 1500 (Max) and the average is 1000, Min is [-500] and Max is [+500]

The map is default positive phase, with both included, so for the Min, just flip the correlation coefficient around (+0.3 over Greenland vs -0.3). But it's also part of the same map. 

Thanks.
1) So, for the 6 years, is this correct going from the most -NAO to the most +NAO?

min+2

min +1

min

max

max +1

max +2

 

2) It’s too bad we can’t see the other 5 years of the 11 year average cycle. But with cycles’ length differing cycle to cycle as opposed to always being 11 yrs, perhaps it would be less useful to go out 3-5 years from max.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks.
1) So, for the 6 years, is this correct going from the most -NAO to the most +NAO?

min+2

min +1

min

max

max +1

max +2

 

2) It’s too bad we can’t see the other 5 years of the 11 year average cycle. But with cycles’ length differing cycle to cycle as opposed to always being 11 yrs, perhaps it would be less useful to go out 3-5 years from max.

I think you get it. If Min = -NAO = +2. If Max = +NAO = +2.  If Min = +NAO = -2, If Max =+NAO = +2, so the 2nd set would be "0", and the first set "+4". 

It's too bad it doesn't go out further. I've tried several times, hoping they would update. It's a 73-year base period, so there is not that much data cut off going out +3-4 years. To do the full 11 years, it would have to be manual, but you can see what NAO state is favored 1-2 years before a Solar Max/Min event at least (weaker overall correlation)

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think you get it. If Min = -NAO = +2. If Max = +NAO = +2.  If Min = +NAO = -2, If Max =+NAO = +2, so the 2nd set would be "0", and the first set "+4". 

It's too bad it doesn't go out further. I've tried several times, hoping they would update. It's a 62-year base period, so there is not that much data cut off going out +3-4 years. To do the full 11 years, it would have to be manual, but you can see what NAO state is favor 1-2 years before a Solar Max/Min event at least (weaker overall correlation)

 You lost me with the bolded.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 You lost me with the bolded.

You can do "lags" and "leads"

A lead is the index comes first.. +1-24 months

A lag is the 500mb composite comes before the index.. -1-24 months

So -24 months is 2 years before a Solar Max

There is actually a -NAO signal at -24 months

-12 months before.. transitioning to Neutral

So since Solar cycles are almost perfectly cyclical, there is actually a +correlation all the way until 1 year before the next Solar peak (Min or Max)! 

So if the average cycle is 11 years, that's a 0 to +9 year NAO correlation composite

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You can do "lags" and "leads"

A lead is the index comes first.. +1-24 months

A lag is the 500mb composite comes before the index.. -1-24 months

So -24 months is 2 years before a Solar Max

There is actually a -NAO signal at -24 months

-12 months before.. transitioning to Neutral

So since Solar cycles are almost perfectly cyclical, there is actually a +correlation all the way until 1 year before the next Solar peak (Min or Max)! 

So if the average cycle is 11 years, that's a 0 to +9 year NAO correlation composite

Chuck,

 If you’d look real closely at the cycles, you’d actually see that the average length from min to max is significantly shorter than that for max to min:

Cycle: Min to Max (years)/Max to Min (years)

1: 6/5

2: 3/6

3: 3/6

4: 3/11

5: 6/6

6: 6/7

7: 7/3

8: 4/6

9: 5/8

10: 4/7

11: 3/8

12: 5/6

13: 4/8

14: 4/8

15: 4/6

16: 5/5

17: 4/7

18: 3/7

19: 3/7

20: 4/8

21: 3/7

22: 3/7

23: 4/8

24: 6/5

(25: likely 5/?)

Avg of 1-24: 4.3/6.8

% of cycles with shorter rise than fall: 79%
% with opposite only 13%

——————

Aside:

-% with 11 year cycle only 25% though 11 is the average; 29% had 10 year (the mode)

-Range 9-14

-Next min very likely within 2030-32.

 

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_y_tot_V2.0.txt

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Very interesting. I think we need to separate the top half and bottom half for "max" and "min". Within that, we assign a +0-9 year lead for best predicted NAO state. For example: If year 2000-2009 is Solar Min with 2004 Solar Min peak (not really data, I am just making an example), we are saying +0-9 years makes 2004-2013 the highest probability for -NAO. I think 2024 was the peak for this Solar Max (correct me if I'm wrong), so we're saying the tendency is for 2024-2033 to be highest likelihood for +NAO, since the next 4-5 years will be declining, but still in the top half, most likely. It is only 1 year before the next Solar Cycle peaks (so coming Solar Min peak) before the NAO tendency actually changes from previous Solar Max peak!

Edit: I see 11 years is for the whole cycle to circulate, not to go from one to the other.. so it's just a +NAO tendency until 1 year before coming Solar Min peak, which your research is saying 6-7 years after Solar Max peak, so 2030-2031.. +NAO tendency until ~2029-2030