2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that next winter will be warmer than this last one was from Philly to Boston. Every La Nina with such a strong +PNA in December had winters around it which were warmer. But since the snowfall was so low anyway, there is a chance that one larger snowstorm if it should occur could rival or exceed last winter from Philly to Boston. I will update again after we see what clues we get in October. 

I don't really see the significance of that...February 2000 had a very strong +PNA like this one (calculation), so why don't we consider the winter following that? Only Bluewave could reframe a shift towards +PNA after the most prominent several year stretch of RNA on record as a negative for winter.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh...depends on perspective. I'd rake 2000-2001 over 2002-2003, and I think many in the mid atl would take 2009-2010.

There are three criteria I use to rate A+ winters (this is going to be very unscientific lol)

1. Holiday Snow (2002-03 had that and on Christmas Day to boot!)

2. HECS for the entire DC to Boston corridor (PD2).

3. An April snowstorm (April 2003).

Only two A+ winters for my area in my lifetime 1995-96 and 2002-03.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure...I'm speculating. I never said every season has been +NAO, but as you stated...the trend has been strongly in favor of +NAO.

and Spring has been tending to -NAO (especially April and May ugh!!)

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There are three criteria I use to rate A+ winters (this is going to be very unscientific lol)

1. Holiday Snow (2002-03 had that and on Christmas Day to boot!)

2. HECS for the entire DC to Boston corridor (PD2).

3. An April snowstorm (April 2003).

Only two A+ winters for my area in my lifetime 1995-96 and 2002-03.

It was def. a really good winter, but probably outside of my top 5...especially considering how I badly I got porked in PD II.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was def. a really good winter, but probably outside of my top 5...especially considering how I badly I got porked in PD II.

PS this is the anniversary of the famous May 9-10, 1977 snowstorm!!

https://www.newenglandstormcenter.com/post/may-shock-looking-back-on-new-england-s-epic-mother-s-day-snowstorm

 

The latest I have ever seen snow also occurred on this date -- May 9, 2020 -- a Trace of snow with a temperature of 34 in NYC but in the Poconos where I was for that storm, 4 inches with temps in the upper teens and wind chills near 0!

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was def. a really good winter, but probably outside of my top 5...especially considering how I badly I got porked in PD II.

It must have been very close, because Boston had one of their highest snowfall totals in PD2.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It must have been very close, because Boston had one of their highest snowfall totals in PD2.

I only had a 1'....stuck in subsidence.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't really see the significance of that...February 2000 had a very strong +PNA like this one (calculation), so why don't we consider the winter following that? Only Bluewave could reframe a shift towards +PNA after the most prominent several year stretch of RNA on record as a negative for winter.

We discussed this over the winter with the October to winter MJO relationship. La Niña mismatches with a strong +PNA out of the gate in December set the tone for those winters. We saw this in 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2017-2018, 2020-2021, and 2024-2025. The La Niñas or cold neutrals surrounding these were warmer.

But we missed out on the heavy snows last winter and much colder readings like we had in the past due to the much stronger Northern Stream of Pacific Jet. So the cold and snow last winter was a big underperformer in this new warmer and less snowy climate

The data I am using suggests a rebound in temperatures for next winter based on what I am currently seeing. Plus we haven’t had back to back October MJO indicators like last year. But if we see more amplitude again next October then, I could reconsider my early first guess. But it would require a first in 30 years.

The snowfall was so low from Philly to NYC last winter that it wouldn’t take much to come close or even exceed it. My final call on that will have to wait until I see the December early snowfall indicator. 

Also notice how scarce even months closer to average temperature to a little cooler than average like this past winter have become. We quickly saw a big rebound in temperatures this spring with the warm departures greatly exceeding the cold ones. This is to be expected since the geographic extent of the cold last winter was extremely limited. This is why the Northeast has seen over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 to only 1 top 10 coldest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

We discussed this over the winter with the October to winter MJO relationship. La Niña mismatches with a strong +PNA out of the gate in December set the tone for those winters. We saw this in 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2017-2018, 2020-2021, and 2024-2025. The La Niñas or cold neutrals surrounding these were warmer.

But we missed out on the heavy snows last winter and much colder readings like we had in the past due to the much stronger Northern Stream of Pacific Jet. So the cold and snow last winter was a big underperformer in this new warmer and less snowy climate

The data I am using suggests a rebound in temperatures for next winter based on what I am currently seeing. Plus we haven’t had back to back October MJO indicators like last year. But if we see more amplitude again next October then, I could reconsider my early first guess. But it would require a first in 30 years.

The snowfall was so low from Philly to NYC last winter that it wouldn’t take much to come close or even exceed it. My final call on that will have to wait until I see the December early snowfall indicator. 

Also notice how scarce even months closer to average temperature to a little cooler than average like this past winter have become. We quickly saw a big rebound in temperatures this spring with the warm departures greatly exceeding the cold ones. This is to be expected since the geographic extent of the cold last winter was extremely limited. This is why the Northeast has seen over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 to only 1 top 10 coldest. 

Okay, I didn't realize you were connecting it to the mismatch research...all you said was +PNA December. But I still don't see the significance relative to next season. I would have to say just based on sheer odds given the warming trend, you are probably right with respect to it not being a cold, but I agree that snowfall is a lot more dubious.

If we got an identical pattern next season, but flipped the WPO and NAO negative, then it would be significantly snowier. I am all for keeping an open mind in relation to the influence of CC, but not at the expense of ignoring traditional teleconnections. Many of those seasons you listed simply had better patterns. 1995 had an ideal pattern in all respects....2000-2001 had a negative NAO, in 2018 the SSW took place one month earlier, so it didn't take until March to affect the pattern and flip the polar domain more favorable, and 2020-2021 had a -NAO, even though it wasn't excessively so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think if you look back throughout history, you won't find many blockbuster seasons on the east coast with a strongly +WPO/NAO, regardless of whether or not it was prohibitively warm in the mean. I have found zero dating back to 1948 in fact, so this isn't a novel concept.

All of these rules you are treating as fact are still speculative and you are operating as if they are fact. I know you will find data to support your theories and contend that its fact, but the reality is that any inference beyond the fact that the climate is warming is still specualtive at this point. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

PS this is the anniversary of the famous May 9-10, 1977 snowstorm!!

https://www.newenglandstormcenter.com/post/may-shock-looking-back-on-new-england-s-epic-mother-s-day-snowstorm

 

The latest I have ever seen snow also occurred on this date -- May 9, 2020 -- a Trace of snow with a temperature of 34 in NYC but in the Poconos where I was for that storm, 4 inches with temps in the upper teens and wind chills near 0!

 

May 8 - 12, 2020 saw snow reported 5 straight days at Detroit (T, T, 0.5, T, T). Five consecutive days of May snow has never happened before in the entire climate record.

Today was likely the last frost of the season...with the first only 4.5-5 months away!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

May 8 - 12, 2020 saw snow reported 5 straight days at Detroit (T, T, 0.5, T, T). Five consecutive days of May snow has never happened before in the entire climate record.

Today was likely the last frost of the season...with the first only 4.5-5 months away!

I highly enjoyed this event and was in the Poconos for it and got to see snow for two days (May 9 and 10), it felt like the middle of winter.  That was on a Friday and Saturday.  An extra bonus was getting to see spring thunderstorms and hail on the following Monday.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We discussed this over the winter with the October to winter MJO relationship. La Niña mismatches with a strong +PNA out of the gate in December set the tone for those winters. We saw this in 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2017-2018, 2020-2021, and 2024-2025. The La Niñas or cold neutrals surrounding these were warmer.

But we missed out on the heavy snows last winter and much colder readings like we had in the past due to the much stronger Northern Stream of Pacific Jet. So the cold and snow last winter was a big underperformer in this new warmer and less snowy climate

The data I am using suggests a rebound in temperatures for next winter based on what I am currently seeing. Plus we haven’t had back to back October MJO indicators like last year. But if we see more amplitude again next October then, I could reconsider my early first guess. But it would require a first in 30 years.

The snowfall was so low from Philly to NYC last winter that it wouldn’t take much to come close or even exceed it. My final call on that will have to wait until I see the December early snowfall indicator. 

Also notice how scarce even months closer to average temperature to a little cooler than average like this past winter have become. We quickly saw a big rebound in temperatures this spring with the warm departures greatly exceeding the cold ones. This is to be expected since the geographic extent of the cold last winter was extremely limited. This is why the Northeast has seen over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 to only 1 top 10 coldest. 

What's your thinking on the NAO for next winter? Do you agree if we see more blockiness this summer and a -NAO rainy summer that the chances are higher that we will have a +NAO for the winter with less snowfall (under 20 inches for NYC)?

This is something I've noticed as a regular pattern for many decades.

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I highly enjoyed this event and was in the Poconos for it and got to see snow for two days (May 9 and 10), it felt like the middle of winter.  That was on a Friday and Saturday.  An extra bonus was getting to see spring thunderstorms and hail on the following Monday.

 

My birthday is May 8th so the weather can be very variable this time of year, but by a mile 2020 was my coldest birthday. I wore a turtleneck sweater that day. It flurried all day in a brisk breeze then we got to a record low of 27F the next morning, one of the coldest May temps on record.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My birthday is May 8th so the weather can be very variable this time of year, but by a mile 2020 was my coldest birthday. I wore a turtleneck sweater that day. It flurried all day in a brisk breeze then we got to a record low of 27F the next morning, one of the coldest May temps on record.

Happy belated freakday!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Happy belated freakday!

Thank you 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

My birthday is May 8th so the weather can be very variable this time of year, but by a mile 2020 was my coldest birthday. I wore a turtleneck sweater that day. It flurried all day in a brisk breeze then we got to a record low of 27F the next morning, one of the coldest May temps on record.

That was Saturday May 10th in the Poconos, snow squalls periodically throughout the day, including some heavier bursts of snow that lay down dustings and coatings.  The morning low was in the upper teens with wind chills around 0.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thank you 

Yes Happy Get Your Freak On Day-- I hope you have a full weekend of celebrating!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Much less El Nino than before.. only 13%. The SOI leads the way again.. It's been positive 8 straight months through April (last year it was Neutral leading the way for a weaker ENSO than originally thought, as per the subsurface and early surface trends). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure...I'm speculating. I never said every season has been +NAO, but as you stated...the trend has been strongly in favor of +NAO.

I'm just saying, why would a consistently identified index not change year-around if it was CC. Now, I think the long term NAO is biased a little too negative in the averages, but if it was CC, you would see it more universally heading in a direction.  It may be a little more decadally cyclical. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that next winter will be warmer than this last one was from Philly to Boston. Every La Nina with such a strong +PNA in December had winters around it which were warmer. But since the snowfall was so low anyway, there is a chance that one larger snowstorm if it should occur could rival or exceed last winter from Philly to Boston. I will update again after we see what clues we get in October. 

PNA usually doesn't carry year-to-year.. good point. In fact, it commonly reverses in the NOI area (North Pacific High), off the West coast. 

That to me says that it usually precedes changing ENSO conditions (+PNA a year before more La Nina, -PNA a year before more El Nino.. slight correlation there, but it's an interesting one)

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PNA usually doesn't carry year-to-year.. good point. In fact, it commonly reverses in the NOI area (North Pacific High), off the West coast. 

That to me says that it usually precedes changing ENSO conditions (+PNA a year before more La Nina, -PNA a year before more El Nino.. slight correlation there, but it's an interesting one)

I mean, I certainly won't be stunned if next winter is -PNA....all I mean is the days of troughs down to the baja in the seasonal mean are gone for awhile. I think last season was a sign of change....maybe it's a one step forward, two steps backward (next year), but times are changing.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm down to 48F already.. during strong +AO. This shows how shortened wavelengths in May make different things possible.. if it were January, I might still be 48F

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, I certainly won't be stunned if next winter is -PNA....all I mean is the days of troughs down to the baja in the seasonal mean are gone for awhile. I think last season was a sign of change....maybe it's a one step forward, two steps backward (next year), but times are changing.

We've only had 1 strong Aleutian High pressure pattern since November.. Jan 15 - Feb 10. LR models are showing the PNA dipping below -1 at Day 10+.. but yeah, it's been a little different for the last 6 months. 

The long range could favor a strong ridge in the Midwest and Southeast (correlation this map is opposite for negative phase) if the -PNA pans out

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm pretty pessimistic for the NAO the next few years....descending solar sucks. Only caveat being is if we hang near solar max for awhile, maybe we can stave of the dispersing of the geomagnetic particles by the solar wind, which is what porks the NAO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty pessimistic for the NAO the next few years....descending solar sucks. Only caveat being is if we hang near solar max for awhile, maybe we can stave of the dispersing of the geomagnetic particles by the solar wind, which is what porks the NAO.

Good post.. lots of data shows +years after a solar peak has the highest cold season NAO correlation

Solar Max +0 years

Solar Max +1 year

Solar Max +2 years

As you can see, the south part of the NAO measurement (central North Atlantic High pressure) increases pretty substantially +2 years time from Solar peak. The final image looks more uniform +NAO, vs just a northern latitude feature in the first image. 

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good post.. lots of data shows +years after a solar peak has the highest cold season NAO correlation

Solar Max +0 years

Solar Max +1 year

Solar Max +2 years

As you can see, the south part of the NAO measurement (central North Atlantic High pressure) increases pretty substantially +2 years time from Solar peak. The final image looks more uniform +NAO, vs just a northern latitude feature in the first image. 

Would you please do this for other years of the cycle?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Would you please do this for other years of the cycle?

It only goes out to +24 months. It would have to be manual to do +3 to +4 years. What I like about the correlation composites, is it takes both sides of the variable into account.. so those images are Solar Max minus Solar Min. Lots of data. 

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It only goes out to +24 months. It would have to be manual to do +3 to +4 years. What I like about the correlation composites, is it takes both sides of the variable into account.. so those images are Solar Max minus Solar Min. Lots of data. 

Can you do Solar min out to +24 months?