matt9697 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z NAM goes full on Miller B with bit of lp running up through the foothills of the Apps. That looks convoluted to me and seems different from what other models are showing, snow to rain to snow for Middle TN area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z NAM goes full on Miller B with bit of lp running up through the foothills of the Apps. While the other mods are not showing a full blown handoff, the drop off in QPF east of the Plateau and then a resurgence of moisture on the NC side is unfortunately signs of the worst case scenario for ETn outside of elevation. If we are still talking about this tomorrow morning, it most likely is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: That looks convoluted to me and seems different from what other models are showing, snow to rain to snow for Middle TN area A Miller B or some sort of handoff always looks convoluted until the high res mods get in range and show the details. Seen it many of times where the NAM starts a trend 4 days out that looks jacked up but then the other mods start to follow in the next runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 I don't hate my location with the midweek system. Just sucks to see another case of weakening energy ahead of the transfer. Seems like our area is ideal for losing juice. This is a primary reason why our 4-6+" last month turned into a 3-5" situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 16, 2025 Author Share Posted February 16, 2025 11 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I don't hate my location with the midweek system. Just sucks to see another case of weakening energy ahead of the transfer. Seems like our area is ideal for losing juice. This is a primary reason why our 4-6+" last month turned into a 3-5" situation. Yeah what a brutal transfer. Wish we could get back to the earlier phase solution but it is extremely unlikely at this point. almost completely blanks Western NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z NAM goes full on Miller B with bit of lp running up through the foothills of the Apps. Probably a product of it's overamping bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 In house mod from a Met in Columbia SC. This isn’t a bad look IMO… https://twitter.com/daniel_bonds/status/1891167602203845081?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 14 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah what a brutal transfer. Wish we could get back to the earlier phase solution but it is extremely unlikely at this point. almost completely blanks Western NC. Absolutely hate transfers to coast. Transfers or development on the Lee side of Apps are great however. Btw, light snow showers falling here currently. Heavy enough to white out Mountain view couple miles from here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 12z GFS is a solid 4-6" for NE TN. The NAM is not in range. It is going to be crazy jacked up which is why it has a Miller B. I think the GFS has it in its wheelhouse now. It is not budging from run to run. The Euro has tended to be a bit to weak on precip this winter. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Whatever falls will stick around for a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 For E TN, it is REALLY important to get the piece of energy which crashes into the back of this. If you cut off the accumulation maps right after the storm passes, it is missing the northwest flow event which follows immediately after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Significant upticks for NE TN on the 12z GDPS. NE TN, which has been on the short end of the stick for the past few winters, is being depicted with a solid 4-6" of snow. We take that all day long. The 12z GFS is a healthy event. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Snowing here for the past hour. Power has been out since early this morning. Roads are washed away and the NAM pulls that crap. Hopefully it's just being a screwball. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 If we get snow this week then I will be more than happy to close the book on this winter & welcome spring. Get rid of all the sickness going around. I have been sick the whole month. Ended up getting upper respiratory infection then flu then pneumonia then stomach virus. Sheesh. Crazy winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Snowing here for the past hour. Power has been out since early this morning. Roads are washed away and the NAM pulls that crap. Hopefully it's just being a screwball. Hope your power comes back on soon. Stay warm & safe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 The GFS has more snow. Given that it is February, that makes more sense. The GDPS is a really a two part event - a slider and then upslope. Both almost get the same point on Kuchera snow maps, but....you gotta include the upslope even that slams into the area on very cold winds. With ratios likely being high for the upslope event...wouldn't surprise me if the upslope produces better than the actual storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 The 6z Euro AIFS has another slider on Sunday....decently robust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 FYI…buddy of mine coming back from Nashville to Chattanooga repots moderate snow falling on Monteagle Mt. He also sent a picture that a friend sent him from Crossville of snow falling and laying on the side of the interstate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 The 12z Euro has less snow accumulation over E TN which has been a trend. Again, I think the Euro has been on the low side of modeling this winter. BTW, the WxBell clown map is in for almost the entire run while the 6 hr precip output map is lagging way behind. Again, I am riding w/ the GFS on this one. It has locked in pretty good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 TWC has temps in 50’s & 60’s starting Sunday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 The 12z GEPS has more snow than its deterministic run. With us still being 3 days out, there is room for this to get stronger - plenty of room 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, Matthew70 said: TWC has temps in 50’s & 60’s starting Sunday. Today or next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Euro is back to record breaking temps early Friday morn 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: TWC has temps in 50’s & 60’s starting Sunday. Lol. Not likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 It will help the mods when we get rid of last night’s system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Today or next week? He’s talking about the end of next weekend into the following week. 7+ days from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 16 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: If we get snow this week then I will be more than happy to close the book on this winter & welcome spring. Get rid of all the sickness going around. I have been sick the whole month. Ended up getting upper respiratory infection then flu then pneumonia then stomach virus. Sheesh. Crazy winter. I hope/pray for a full recovery and wellness brother. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 February systems are notorious (infamous?) for under modeling precip amounts. One caveat as maybe Holston mentioned overnight, we are seeing some convection along the GOA. That will cause the spigot to be shut off. I think we are seeing variations of that in modeling. IF that convection wasn't there, we could see much more snow. That might actually be a nowcast once the event starts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: He’s talking about the end of next weekend into the following week. 7+ days from now. I don't see that on any deterministic or ensembles. Maybe TWC is using an in-house model. It could happen as it is still way out there. Right now next weekend looks really cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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