2/19-2/20 Miller A Magic?

[fountainguy97]

Can we get a true Miller A pass with no warm nose?  Trends today are good! 
 

[John1122]

It's looking pretty good right now, but it's never a given here until we see the flakes falling. We are due for one that doesn't go south or north. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

rgem at the end of its run 

[PowellVolz]

Something to chew on… i know it’s been warm, however Monday-Wednesday the high/low temps in Knoxville will be around 40/25ish. This should help cool the ground temps. 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS looks good.

[Jed33]

Looks like it was a touch colder and a hair further south. 

[John1122]

Each model is basically a little colder and a little heavier on the snow output than the runs from 00z. 

[John1122]

The ICON was similar to the Euro. 

[John1122]

18z Euro was another nice hit from Kentucky down to Northern Bama. Nice EPS too. As good as the 12z. 

[John1122]

The NAM is amped (of course) and has the rain up to 40. The ICON was another good pass/run. The RGEM looks like it was going to be similar to the ICON/EURO etc.

[John1122]

The NBM for the 12z suite would see a Winter Storm Watch criteria for SW Va, SE KY and areas along the Tennessee/Kentucky/VA border, dropping down towards 40 in the Mid-State and points West.

[John1122]

GFS was fairly similar to 18z. Little heavier out west, a little lighter in the eastern valley after what looked like a promising start. Likely doing the hand-off thing Carvers talked about JB saying it does at times. 

[John1122]

Canadian crept south a bit and now has the entire state over an inch, when 12z blanked some of the southern border areas.  

[John1122]

Euro backed off with QPF, unfortunately. Still a ways to go, but hopefully not a trend. Most modeling backed off a bit tonight for Tennessee and upped totals in NC. 

[John1122]

The Euro was a double bad draw for the areas in the Central Valley of East Tennessee and NE. It shoots a big warm nose up the middle of the valley with mid to upper 30s, and it cut QPF for the same area of the warm nose. It was about .15 to .25 less qpf vs 12z.  The EPS is still a little wetter than the OP. But it's getting close to the time where the OP will likely handle things better. As I said, hopefully this is not a trend and we get a little more QPF to work with. It's pretty sad that we get 7 inches of rain in 4 days when it's warm, but can't be .5 when it's cold enough to snow.

[Uncle Nasty]

Interesting wording on the detailed forecast from Morristown. The 1st screenshot is a blanket forecast for the Morriatown coverage area, and the 2nd screenshot is Hamilton County specific . They mention possible moderate accumulation here. Hmmm. What are they seeing? Edit to add: local NBC just said a fast mover and posted graphics showing 2.3" for Chattanooga.






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[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing I noticed with the 6z RGEM was convection parallel to the Gulf Coast. 

That's a fail mode we haven't dealt with in a while, so something to watch out for. I also think there is a bit of a transfer (like y'all mentioned overnight) in those frames too from FL panhandle to GA coast.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro looks like it might have some of the parallel convection too:

[matt9697]

Where are the accumulation maps? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are most of the 6z accumulation maps:

 

 

 

 

[fountainguy97]

Yeah models trending flatter and a late phase.  Keeps us much drier. 

[jaxjagman]

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

For the long term, we shift our focus to the next system that will
likely bring some accumulating snowfall to middle TN Wednesday. The
current NBM probabilities of at least 2 inches or more of snow is
40% south of I-40, and between 60-80% north of I-40. The
probability of 4 inches or more is 50-70% north of I-40. Sampling
a few model soundings from both the NAM and the GFS, temperature
profiles are well below freezing with ample moisture in the
dendritic growth zone, so as of now, this looks to be an all snow
event. As the trough exits off to the east Thursday, bitterly cold
temperatures will settle in at the surface as high pressure
builds in from the midwest. We will remain dry through the
remainder of the forecast period, but again, it will be cold.
Current high temperature forecast has the majority of middle TN
aside from the far southern counties below freezing for 48+ hours
for Wednesday-Thursday. Some slight warming will occur Saturday
and Sunday as upper level ridging builds over the Ohio River
Valley with temperatures getting back into the 40s.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Can't believe I'm saying this, but Im actually rooting for the NBM of the models I posted above. 

[matt9697]

36 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here are most of the 6z accumulation maps:

 

 

 

 

Thank you; this should be coming into better focus the next couple of days; the mets on local TV in Nashville are including the threat of a plowable snowfall in their statements this am. 

[PowellVolz]

46 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Where are the accumulation maps? 

Apparently not in Tennessee lol

[matt9697]

30 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

For the long term, we shift our focus to the next system that will
likely bring some accumulating snowfall to middle TN Wednesday. The
current NBM probabilities of at least 2 inches or more of snow is
40% south of I-40, and between 60-80% north of I-40. The
probability of 4 inches or more is 50-70% north of I-40. Sampling
a few model soundings from both the NAM and the GFS, temperature
profiles are well below freezing with ample moisture in the
dendritic growth zone, so as of now, this looks to be an all snow
event. As the trough exits off to the east Thursday, bitterly cold
temperatures will settle in at the surface as high pressure
builds in from the midwest. We will remain dry through the
remainder of the forecast period, but again, it will be cold.
Current high temperature forecast has the majority of middle TN
aside from the far southern counties below freezing for 48+ hours
for Wednesday-Thursday. Some slight warming will occur Saturday
and Sunday as upper level ridging builds over the Ohio River
Valley with temperatures getting back into the 40s.

Not to jinx this but I think I am in a good place for this system. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think western areas probably are looking better than eastern ones. 

[John1122]

The ICON and GFS went up on totals at 6z, and because we can't have simple, nice things anymore when it comes to winter weather, the Euro went down. 

[AMZ8990]

22 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think western areas probably are looking better than eastern ones. 

“Don’t you put that on me Ricky Bobby”…

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z NAM goes full on Miller B with bit of lp running up through the foothills of the Apps.