Stx_Thunder Posted June 9 Author Share Posted June 9 Looks very convectively interesting (San Antonio - Houston region & south), Wednesday - Thursday this week. Severe risk with some DL shear still around, but looks to be more-so heavy rainfall and flooding now being June (precipitable water going above 2 in.) Both Euro & GFS trending up on totals near 10" in the state mainly just those 2 days from a fairly stout, slow moving upper trough diving unusually further south in the state. WPC is bound to issue moderate excessive rainfall risk over mid-coast region up to Houston/ETX for midweek. Euro EW rainfall and multi-model flash flood indexes are already quite high for Wed - Thurs also. The persistent exceptional (D4) drought level status over SAT area should abate with this week's convective setup. H5 heights are likely to drop below 590 and may even be next to 585 in STX. Which also translates to 500 Mb temps still closer to -10 C. Going below normal for June standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 There's a interesting outflow boundary today in Texas. Some clear skies in the outflow, with scattered storms on the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 No words to describe the horrific flooding. My thoughts for all those who have lost loved ones. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Terribly sad about the flooding. My best friends brother, Bill Huston, is one of the missing people. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 It's really just a total shame that a lot of people still don't heed flash flood warnings the way they should (like they always do with tornado warnings). Especially when in a low-lying area or near a river as both are the case with the ongoing Kerrville area flood deaths. And it's not like this has never happened before in the state in recent years. I honestly thought that after what happened in Wimberley area back in spring 2015 & 2017's Hurricane Harvey remnant Low stalled for days in SETX, people around the state would've at least learned to be a bit more mindful of what flooding and 'excessive rainfall' (per WPC) actually is. Especially anything that's tropical, as the culprit of the Kerrville area flooding was in fact just like Harvey, also a remnant Low of TS Barry that made landfall in Mex from the SW Gulf last weekend (NWS Austin/San Antonio office mentioned this in AFD earlier last week). I've been seeing the remnant Low or MCV spinning on radar around the Kerrville area over the past couple days. And saw it slowly going north out of NE Mex west of Laredo earlier last week. Even an Accuweather meteorologist pointed out twice on air that FF warnings were issued by NWS, several hours before the flood waters even escalated in the county into July 4th. So I definitely think more than 50% of whatever the death toll ultimately is in the coming days, could have easily been prevented. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Was the area that was affected by the tragic flash flood deaths an area know for such events at that magnitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 21 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: Was the area that was affected by the tragic flash flood deaths an area know for such events at that magnitude? Yes. Similar events with dozens of deaths have occurred in the region - some recently. Flash flood awareness should be higher here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Flood_Alley 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Seems DFW may have its first legit shot at seeing its first 100*F day tomorrow, per the latest NWS grids. But if it doesn't happen tomorrow, the "lack-of" streak continues for the forseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 DFW has another shot (albeit marginal) the next 2 days at 100*F. But at this point, if it doesn't happen, I'm all aboard the futility train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted Saturday at 12:17 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:17 AM DFW only topped out at 98*F yesterday and 99*F today, so the 100*F drought continues... Looks like the top 10 list for latest 1st 100*F days may be in play now (starting with 8/7). Meanwhile, 1973 and 1906 are the only years in recorded history thus far that DFW didn't see a single 100*F day. BTW, the high of 98*F yesterday is also amongst the latest in the season DFW has recorded a temp that high, with the exception of 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago 'Rest of Summer 2025 is looking good for less TX insane heat, and more convective action. - Ensembles have been pretty consistent in forecasting fleeting (rather than dominant) subtropical ridging since the season began. And I don't see any reason with forecast trends this will change much, or to disagree with CPC's month outlook for August, with equal chances on temps and precip in the state. Instead of just outright throwing in above normal probability temp shades all over the state, typically. This weekend, and possibly even later next week or into mid August is looking a bit convectively interesting with a non-tropical mid-upper level pattern developing as the flow turns North across most, if not all the central and eastern half of state due to the typical mid-upper High moving off to the west. And troughing digging further south through the Plains than usual this time of year. Which will likely push a front into the state this weekend. The AO edging into the negative phase in the coming days also supports this (as I've seen in past years). Both Euro & GFS are even starting to hone in on modest DL shear getting deeper into the state as well in more recent runs. So stronger or more clustered storms are not out of the question. Especially with a +PNA phase already in place as I've also seen over the years. Only real caveat this weekend looks to be mostly meager mid-level lapse rates around 6 (except may be 7 in NTX). Next weekend or following week is looking steeper further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago On another note, sfc dew points and humidity values were majorly below normal this time of year in the coastal bend, early evening Tuesday. Corpus dew point bottomed out at 49 F with just 20% humidity value in the early evening. Well below the normal 70+ F dew point observed throughout the entire summer (day & night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago On 7/25/2025 at 7:17 PM, Powerball said: DFW only topped out at 98*F yesterday and 99*F today, so the 100*F drought continues... Looks like the top 10 list for latest 1st 100*F days may be in play now (starting with 8/7). Meanwhile, 1973 and 1906 are the only years in recorded history thus far that DFW didn't see a single 100*F day. BTW, the high of 98*F yesterday is also amongst the latest in the season DFW has recorded a temp that high, with the exception of 2002. DFW did finally hot 100*F for the first time this season yesterday. Should log 2 more today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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