Texas 2025 Discussion/Observations

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks very convectively interesting (San Antonio - Houston region & south), Wednesday - Thursday this week. Severe risk with some DL shear still around, but looks to be more-so heavy rainfall and flooding now being June (precipitable water going above 2 in.)

Both Euro & GFS trending up on totals near 10" in the state mainly just those 2 days from a fairly stout, slow moving upper trough diving unusually further south in the state. WPC is bound to issue moderate excessive rainfall risk over mid-coast region up to Houston/ETX for midweek. Euro EW rainfall and multi-model flash flood indexes are already quite high for Wed - Thurs also.

The persistent exceptional (D4) drought level status over SAT area should abate with this week's convective setup.

H5 heights are likely to drop below 590 and may even be next to 585 in STX. Which also translates to 500 Mb temps still closer to -10 C. Going below normal for June standards.

[Chinook]

There's a interesting outflow boundary today in Texas. Some clear skies in the outflow, with scattered storms on the boundary.

 

[canderson]

No words to describe the horrific flooding. My thoughts for all those who have lost loved ones. 

[Ander]

Terribly sad about the flooding.  My best friends brother, Bill Huston, is one of the missing people.  

[Stx_Thunder]

It's just a total shame that a lot of people still don't heed flash flood warnings as they should like with tornado warnings. Especially when in a low-lying area or near a river as both are the case with the ongoing Kerrville area flood deaths.

And it's not like this has never happened before in the state in recent years. I honestly thought that after what happened in Wimberley area back in spring 2015 & 2017's Hurricane Harvey remnant Low stalled for days in SETX, people around the state would've at least learned to be a bit more mindful of what flooding and 'excessive rainfall' actually is. Especially anything that's tropical, as the culprit of the Kerrville area flooding was also a remnant Low of what was TS Barry that made landfall in Mex from the SW Gulf last weekend (NWS Austin/San Antonio office mentioned this in AFD earlier last week). I've been seeing the remnant Low or MCV spinning on radar around the Kerrville area over the past couple days.

Even an Accuweather meteorologist pointed out twice on air that FF warnings were issued by NWS, several hours before the flood waters even escalated in the county into July 4th. So I definitely think more than 50% of whatever the death toll ultimately is in the coming days, could have easily been prevented.