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Texas 2025 Discussion/Observations


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Looks very convectively interesting (San Antonio - Houston region & south), Wednesday - Thursday this week. Severe risk with some DL shear still around, but looks to be more-so heavy rainfall and flooding now being June (precipitable water going above 2 in.)

Both Euro & GFS trending up on totals near 10" in the state mainly just those 2 days from a fairly stout, slow moving upper trough diving unusually further south in the state. WPC is bound to issue moderate excessive rainfall risk over mid-coast region up to Houston/ETX for midweek. Euro EW rainfall and multi-model flash flood indexes are already quite high for Wed - Thurs also.

The persistent exceptional (D4) drought level status over SAT area should abate with this week's convective setup.

H5 heights are likely to drop below 590 and may even be next to 585 in STX. Which also translates to 500 Mb temps still closer to -10 C. Going below normal for June standards.

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