Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

50 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Damn... Happy hour is a little late 

It would seem quite possible considering the indices:

- rising -NAO
- rising -AO
- weak MJO phase 8 (near or inside circle)
- quick +PNA spike

[wncsnow]

Euro is about the same for Friday. Little more moisture this run

[wncsnow]

Euro looks nothing like the GFS for Sunday night unfortunately 

[GaWx]

Holy Euro Barney!

[BornAgain13]

Models looking good for Friday... I really like that that Sunday/Monday system by the GFS but im not getting to excited since its the only one showing it like that. 

[strongwxnc]

Euro is about the same for Friday. Little more moisture this run

Decent bit more.


.

[BornAgain13]

0z GEFS just for the Monday system 

 

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS very similar to 0z for the Friday system.  The Monday system is still there at 6z but not as significant as 0z. Still a good snow up this way for many.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’ll take whatever the gfs is smoking on that Monday system 

[wncsnow]

NAM is still not enthused at all about tomorrow night. 

[NorthHillsWx]

26 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM is still not enthused at all about tomorrow night. 

HWO from RAH reads like the most depressing event of all time:

A cold rain may mix with snow and sleet Friday morning. A very light
coating may result, mostly on elevated surfaces, before melting and
washing away in a cold rain on Friday.

 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

HWO from RAH reads like the most depressing event of all time:

A cold rain may mix with snow and sleet Friday morning. A very light
coating may result, mostly on elevated surfaces, before melting and
washing away in a cold rain on Friday.

 

Yeah I'm not expecting much if anything except for higher elevations from Avery County north. Another cold rain! Maybe the short range will start coming in colder but the CAD is super weak 

[wncsnow]

The HRRR at long range (take it with a grain of salt) looks a little better. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

The HRRR at long range (take it with a grain of salt) looks a little better. 

Cold bias in mind, but shows how rates can push the rain, snow, sleet line south. These temp boundaries can yield impressive banding relative to what the global models show, so something to keep in mind. A very tricky forecast with a boom and bust zone likely

[BornAgain13]

12z HRRR brings the smoke.

[wncsnow]

Another reason the HRRR works is because it brings the heavier precip in faster tomorrow night

[BooneWX]

I always love how juiced and aggressive the GRAF is

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I always love how juiced and aggressive the GRAF is

Pictures of the GRAF? Bring it on lol

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Pictures of the GRAF? Bring it on lol

https://x.com/timbuckleywx/status/1996067257181417685?s=46

[BornAgain13]

12z FV3 looks good to!

[wncsnow]

Regular NAM still keeps it a Nc/VA line north event mostly 

[wncsnow]

Hi Res NAM is too slow and weak with the precip and its mostly rain for NC folks. It was slightly better than 6Z though. 

[wncsnow]

Some clown maps from the short range Hi Res models 

[BooneWX]

Mid month ridge looks transient 

[SUNYGRAD]

Definitely some better lift at 700 and 850 on the 12Z FV3 for northern third of NC, especially western half.  Probably will be the keys to how strong these levels will be and ultimately precip.  Just my opinion.  

[BooneWX]

6 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Definitely some better lift at 700 and 850 on the 12Z FV3 for northern third of NC, especially western half.  Probably will be the keys to how strong these levels will be and ultimately precip.  Just my opinion.  

Since no one has said it yet….. Rates will overcome!!

[BornAgain13]

Thankfully the soil temps wont be a problem. Its been cold!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z GEFS just for the Monday system 

 

 
 For the twelve 6”+ RDU storms since MJO records started, here are the MJO phases with the largest # of these storms:

-3: 3.5 28.2”
-8: 2.5 16.8”
-5: 2 13.2”
-1: 1.5 23.7”
-7: 1 10.8”
-4: 1 5.9”
-2: 0.5 9.0”
-6: 0 0.0”

MJO amplitude:
Weak: 63.9” (on or inside circle)
Mod 37.8” (1-2 amp)
Strong 5.9” (2+ amp)

-The MJO is progged to be weak phase 8 Dec 8-9th

-All of the 6”+ RDU snows during phases 8, 1, and 2 were when the MJO was inside the circle.

-Phase 3 leading may seem counterintuitive but it’s not when considering that 3 of the 3.5 phase 3 storms were during Feb or Mar, when phase 3 is one of the coldest phases:

[BooneWX]

With a massive grain of salt - the gfs has much more moisture and is colder. Verbatim, more than a minor event for many

edit: not colder but the front thump is thumpin