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Pittsburgh, PA Fall 2024 Thread


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21 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks like another dry stretch coming up, barring any tropical impacts possibly 7 days. Hopefully it doesn't have any impact on fall foliage in the area, but maybe earlier and less colorful if the trend persists.

Was looking at that this morning. There have been entire GFS runs that show exactly zero qpf through 384. Not just a one off, it seems every other run for the past few days has depicted this.

I think the over is a safe bet in this scenario, but model runs depicting zero precip for 16 days are incredibly rare around here.

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Interesting to note that of the 10 streaks of 21+ days of zero measurable precip that Pittsburgh has recorded, 9 of them happened at least partially in fall. The only exception happened in May/June 2023. So fall months can be incredibly dry around here, but there’s always tropical remnants to give us hope.

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PIT is 1.6F below normal through the 12th, but the next several days should get us back to normal [or above]. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from yesterday look like an inferno for most of the eastern US, so we should be well-positioned for another warmer than normal month.

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

PIT is 1.6F below normal through the 12th, but the next several days should get us back to normal [or above]. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from yesterday look like an inferno for most of the eastern US, so we should be well-positioned for another warmer than normal month.

I wonder what the record is for most consecutive above normal months at PIT. I know we had that stretch from February 2016-July 2017 where we had 18 straight above normal months, though a few of those would now be considered below normal according to the 1991-2020 normals.

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000
SXUS71 KPBZ 142151
RERDUJ

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
0549 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 2005.


$$
MILCAREK

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On 9/14/2024 at 11:21 AM, Ahoff said:

Weather app on phone looks average, temp wise for next week, at least for now.

I don't know what the weather app was looking at. There hasn't been a day within 5F of normal since the 11th. Looks like we may see a few seasonable or somewhat cooler than normal days as we head into early October, behind Helene's remnants.

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4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

September? Considering its 3.5F above normal, it's going to be closer to +5F than normal.

Or was this meant to ask about the upcoming October?

If October, the Euro AIFS has a pretty warm looking pattern across the eastern U.S. after a cooler start to the month behind Helene. CPC agrees with increased odds of warmer than normal almost coast to coast. Not sure it will be a blowtorch, but I think odds are certainly in favor of another at least somewhat warmer than normal month.

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Also haven't looked at this in a few weeks, but PIT is now just 0.1F below the warmest YTD in the threaded record.  Obviously, the older records are from the city station. And the 19th century records seem to have had some sort of warm bias on top of that, particularly in the warm season. But despite any biases, right in the mix for the record warm annual mean temperature.

1880 was not warm for the last 3 months of year so it falls off pretty rapidly. 1921 is actually the current record year in the threaded record, and 2024 has been 0.2F above that year to date. 

image.png.dacf4fa47259f44582f380140ae1f3d5.png

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2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Also haven't looked at this in a few weeks, but PIT is now just 0.1F below the warmest YTD in the threaded record.  Obviously, the older records are from the city station. And the 19th century records seem to have had some sort of warm bias on top of that, particularly in the warm season. But despite any biases, right in the mix for the record warm annual mean temperature.

1880 was not warm for the last 3 months of year so it falls off pretty rapidly. 1921 is actually the current record year in the threaded record, and 2024 has been 0.2F above that year to date. 

image.png.dacf4fa47259f44582f380140ae1f3d5.png

And actually 1921 was not particularly warm the last three months of the year. Compared to the current 1991-2020 mean at PIT, October was +0.7F, November +2.1F, and December +0.3F. So only a bit above normal. A very warm October could almost seal up the warmest year on record, barring a major cold outbreak in November or December [because at that point November & December could probably run even slightly below normal and 2024 would still wind up #1].

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39 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

September? Considering its 3.5F above normal, it's going to be closer to +5F than normal.

Or was this meant to ask about the upcoming October?

Like in previous months someone had the data about the current months (July-August)being around the 2nd-4th hottest months ever for greater Pitt -wondering what September looks like with that same data someone had posted for the previous months-trying to see if the trend is continuing

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5 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Like in previous months someone had the data about the current months (July-August)being around the 2nd-4th hottest months ever for greater Pitt -wondering what September looks like with that same data someone had posted for the previous months-trying to see if the trend is continuing

September has been another warm month. 16th warmest in the threaded record, but only 2015, 2016 & 2018 have been warmer since 1931. Could vary a bit prior to the end of the month on Monday, but given the current forecast should finish very near the current value of 69.4F.

image.png.c3b21d87722bb49dd434b54aa406a58a.png

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On 9/26/2024 at 9:37 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

Also haven't looked at this in a few weeks, but PIT is now just 0.1F below the warmest YTD in the threaded record.  Obviously, the older records are from the city station. And the 19th century records seem to have had some sort of warm bias on top of that, particularly in the warm season. But despite any biases, right in the mix for the record warm annual mean temperature.

1880 was not warm for the last 3 months of year so it falls off pretty rapidly. 1921 is actually the current record year in the threaded record, and 2024 has been 0.2F above that year to date. 

image.png.dacf4fa47259f44582f380140ae1f3d5.png

Update through the end of September. Currently tied for first place.

image.png.f710a2e2d55e8888c7be33983f342572.png

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On 10/1/2024 at 10:36 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

Update through the end of September. Currently tied for first place.

image.png.f710a2e2d55e8888c7be33983f342572.png

We have officially taken sole possession of 1st place from 1880. As I had noted, 1880 drops off fast with a rather chilly last quarter. 2024 remains 0.2F above the current record holder (1921), which had a fairly ho-hum [only slightly above average] final quarter.

image.png.6147bda34254acee89178f13b10a7f5f.png

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