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March/ Spring mid-long range


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10 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I am hoping we get into a wetter pattern soon.  The winds are drying out the soil quickly. 

In NE TN, most La Nina patterns are dry.  With the IO and Nina potentially being out of sync, I am not sure what that yields in terms of precip here.  It seems like some La Nina patterns have been soakers here, but lately, more dry.  I do think the pattern might be much more variable than I had originally thought re: summer.  I do think a good chunk of fall and winter will be much AN in terms of temps.  I would suspect fall turns very dry.  La Nina across our forum can produce quite different results.

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It appears that summer is here.  I don't think those Weeklies(which were cool) are gonna work out.  Looks warm for the foreseeable future.  Summer has started early, and that often means a VERY hot July-October.  TRI is only +1.7 but it has felt much warmer than that.  Late April to October is likely summer this year.  Hope I am wrong on that.  

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TRI finished with about 70-75% of normal rainfall for the month of April and +2.1F.   Yesterday morning it rained.  When I mowed by midday the moisture was almost gone on the grass.  Not good to be BN normal w/ precip during spring.  Hopefully, that turns around.  Lately, ext LR modeling is really, really struggling IMO.   That said, if one just uses ENSO state, wx patterns have been pretty consistent w/ a transition to La Nina.  

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, the cold snap in mid-Jan wiped out my grape vines(entire plant).  I just replanted today.  They were new, so they were more fragile....but man.

That cold snap did quite a bit of damage to agriculture down here.  I’ve noticed several Hollys trees and bushes that seem to be behind putting out leaves.  I lost several Craig Myrtle.  Even my Cypress tree lost some branches and is slowly putting out.

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