jaxjagman Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 18 hours ago, ChicagoGuy said: Hi everyone, apologies if I am doing this wrong, you all seem like you know a lot about weather and I really would like some information/knowledge from folks that understand this stuff really well! My partner and I are planning a camping trip to Mammoth Cave Nat'l Park next week (it's spring break in Chicago), and I've been paying close attention to the NWS out of Louisville. Unfortunately it looks like rain is in the forecast for next week, which is not a great addition to a camping trip. I know that more than five days out forecasts can be inaccurate, but I have been paying attention to the forecast discussion on their site as well. I don't understand all of the technical things they are talking about, but I've figured out that there is some sort of weather system that is forecast to push through the upper South/lower Midwest next week that will bring rain with it. With that in mind I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help explain for me: 1.) Is this forecast just saying that there is a higher probability of rain, or is it saying that it will rain and it's really just a question of how much? 2.) If it is going to rain next week, will it be a lot, or will it just be raining off an on, or for parts of the day(s)? 3.) Is this a weather system that will impact a large area? I am thinking if we're certain it won't be good weather in Mammoth Cave, KY we might pick a different national recreation area or state park (such as Mark Twain National Forest, or Hoosier National Forest) instead. Thank you all so much for your time, talent and knowledge, and if this post doesn't belong here, please let me know and I'll gladly delete it. Mammoth Cave is pretty cool,have fun!! Welcome to the board.Like PW just said beyond a certain time frame the models can change. Right now into Late Monday and Tuesday looks like a cold front by the Euro and GFS models,might be your biggest issue.But i wouldnt trust much myself beyond that point right now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Really hoping we start getting more rain. This wind & warmer days is drying things out quickly. I was digging yesterday & the ground is pretty dry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 I'm pretty sure the gust of 93mph at Camp Creek overnight was the highest ever recorded at that station...unless I'm forgetting something. I think the previous record was 92mph. I'm certain there were other stronger events (2004 was the strongest I can remember), but there weren't reliable data at that point. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Check out the live eagle cam at big bear in SOCAL. Snowing 3-5" hr rates https://www.friendsofbigbearvalley.org/eagles/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 The PV is spinning in the opposite direction of normal. https://www.space.com/earth-polar-vortex-spinning-backwards-above-arctic-reversal-event?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=space.com&fbclid=IwAR0suogUmLsbHb98dCeLpcitxDzb5WMWimd91WXvLsnPbzOnCIpiooI8CB8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The PV is spinning in the opposite direction of normal. https://www.space.com/earth-polar-vortex-spinning-backwards-above-arctic-reversal-event?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=space.com&fbclid=IwAR0suogUmLsbHb98dCeLpcitxDzb5WMWimd91WXvLsnPbzOnCIpiooI8CB8 Crazy is that we actually get an SSW. A major one at that and that doesn't change the weather pattern at all. Especially with it rotating backwards.... Strange to read. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Crazy is that we actually get an SSW. A major one at that and that doesn't change the weather pattern at all. Especially with it rotating backwards.... Strange to read. I bet we see some changes w/ that set-up. I have no idea what! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 11 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The PV is spinning in the opposite direction of normal. https://www.space.com/earth-polar-vortex-spinning-backwards-above-arctic-reversal-event?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=space.com&fbclid=IwAR0suogUmLsbHb98dCeLpcitxDzb5WMWimd91WXvLsnPbzOnCIpiooI8CB8 Well that goes along with everything else spinning backwards. Lol. Bring on the cicadas! Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Snow flurries/showers on my point and click for Thursday....no joke. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 10 hours ago, *Flash* said: Just wondering if a separate severe weather thread needs to be started? @jaxjagman, thoughts? Just start another severe thread,this one is 3 years old,bout time to start a new one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Winter Weather Advisories are posted for the Apps. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Reports of light snow in Wise and Tazewll, VA, at this hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 We had sleet here a minute ago. RadarScope has frozen precip over portions of the TRI region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Just had a sleet/snow shower roll through town here as well. Kinda crazy for April! Kinda like a last hurrah for winter I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Saw some social media posts (4/4) for Roan Mountain. Looks like the first bald had maybe 3-4" of snow. It is nearly impossible to tell the exact amount from a photo, but the wind also moved a lot of the snow around. Just based on the reports from LeConte, that amount sounds about right. It has fell like winter for the past few days. Looks like we are back to spring like temps next week, though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Looks like maybe two more trough amplifications in the East. This has "late freeze" written all over it for gardeners who are going to try to plan early. This just seems like one of those patterns that stays very warm for several days/weeks and then flips crazy cold for 2-3 days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 I am liking the seasonal outlook for May/June/July with above temps but also with above precip. Give me afternoon thunderstorms to sit on my screen porch to listen to. Also keeps the grass & everything green. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 In looking at the ENSO forecast for next winter (growing chances of a strong super Nina...maybe extreme), I think the chances for winter weather are going to be front end, and then potential torch after that. The SER is very likely going to be a problem. The only silver lining, this may be so strong...there might be few analogs that actually match it. The PDO is forecast to remain negative....very strong warm signals paired for January and February. We will have to have a very strong -NAO(tough to predict in advance) to counter what could be an MJO that will park itself in 4-5-6 w/ cold water over regions 8-1. I think the Mountain West is set to score a massive winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Not wx related but I saw my first red salamander today here in Smyrna. I thought it was a lizard till I researched what it was. Unusual to have them in this area from what I read. Guess they are expanding their presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 16 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Not wx related but I saw my first red salamander today here in Smyrna. I thought it was a lizard till I researched what it was. Unusual to have them in this area from what I read. Guess they are expanding their presence. If we have a good winter @Holston_River_Rambler, the red salamander is the key. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Record highs are possible today as a strong ridge axis extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest builds eastward across Tennessee. Highs yesterday climbed well above all guidance values. The warming and enhanced wind gusts occurred as full sunshine and dry air allowed very deep vertical mixing. Mixing may not be quite as strong today, but we should still meet or exceed yesterday`s highs. Wind speeds will be much lower today as the high pressure builds across the area. BNA climate data for today: Normal high 73 Forecast 87 Record 87 from 1936 BNA climate data for Tuesday: Normal high 73 Forecast 87 Record 88 from 1955 The warm conditions will continue tonight and Tuesday under the strong ridge. Winds will pick up again Tuesday, with gusts as high as 30 mph in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 When we see it get hot in April, look out. Looking like a potentially VERY hot summer on tap - starts early and ends late. I think we are looking at May to mid-October w/ AN temps. Hopefully some cooler weeks thrown in to buffer what could be a scorcher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 18 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: When we see it get hot in April, look out. Looking like a potentially VERY hot summer on tap - starts early and ends late. I think we are looking at May to mid-October w/ AN temps. Hopefully some cooler weeks thrown in to buffer what could be a scorcher. With all the cicadas thrown in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 1 hour ago, Matthew70 said: With all the cicadas thrown in Sadly, no cicadas here IMBY. They bring up huge fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 An interesting read about Australia's upcoming winter - of course not ours as the hemispheres are completely different. There are some good nuggets about the positive IO and La Nina which might be a rare(?) combination according to the article. I don't remember that being a rare combo, but that is interesting if true. https://snowbrains.com/as-australias-el-nino-period-ends-australian-snow-fields-are-potentially-facing-rare-la-nina-positive-iod-winter/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2DJjuRqmpHuYt-GzTVh3qbq-p1vzI2RSuPR4qZdGP4BMZxIpnOyci1Rqc_aem_ASUlkc31A6QNB9K2ZkHNxOcQhU5jpJ3vKHsqEWTqpIe0lzl8t0a6gzw1HNpSq5mcae4SE-GnVb8O020ZJ-_HTbF7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 I haven't looked at a forecast re: the IO this winter...so know that before reading these IO posts. The positive phase should peak during late fall according to this article. However, with La Nina in place, it does appear that having a positive IO and a La Nina is wrinkle that maybe I wasn't expecting. The positive IO(if it holds into our winter) would potentially suppress the warmer phases of the MJO signal. Now, my guess would be that area warms back up right as our winter hits. I do think that does raise the potential for a cooler last half of November and a cold start to winter. Then, as the IO flips negative, we get very warm in eastern NA. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 I do think for my winter ideas (24-25'), I am going to use IO forecasts as part of the overall equation, and give it fairly heavy weight. It has been driving the MJO during recent winters. IO/MJ, ENSO, and PDO will have the heaviest weight. NAO will have some weight, but it is nearly impossible to predict at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:08 PM Areas of frost possible tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM I reactivated my WxBell account after a brief hiatus. LR seasonal outlooks are not showing a torch quite yet which is contrary to my thought process. Now, the warm spring fits La Nina along with BN rainfall. Next winter looks like a torch...no easy way to put it, but that is a long way off and things will likely change. That said, this summer doesn't look as warm as I thought. HOWEVER, if the BN rainfall continues(check regional airport to see if that applies to you or just look out the window)....heat will likely build into those areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Monday at 12:41 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:41 AM 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I reactivated my WxBell account after a brief hiatus. LR seasonal outlooks are not showing a torch quite yet which is contrary to my thought process. Now, the warm spring fits La Nina along with BN rainfall. Next winter looks like a torch...no easy way to put it, but that is a long way off and things will likely change. That said, this summer doesn't look as warm as I thought. HOWEVER, if the BN rainfall continues(check regional airport to see if that applies to you or just look out the window)....heat will likely build into those areas. I am hoping we get into a wetter pattern soon. The winds are drying out the soil quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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