2024-2025 La Nina

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Extreme heat is definitely nothing here like it used to be. More days in the 80s and warmer summer nights increase summer mean temps. So I have a hard time seeing any wild uptick In 90s here either.

The climate models were wrong, they actually predicted an average of 3 100 degrees annually for NYC by 2045 and I just don't see that happening.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm surprised that you didn't jump on that 1970-now warming image, since the 1970s were one of the coldest decades

The only two summers in the 1970s that jump out at me for heat were 1973 and 1977.  Before then, our historically hot summers occurred in an 11 year cycle (1944, 1955, 1966.)  1977 still has our hottest two week stretch on record.

Of course the 1980s and 1990s were much hotter, 1980 got things started with a historic CONUS heatwave.  If I remember correctly the following summers were very hot: 1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010-2013

Actually that 11 year solar cycle has still prevailed for summer heat, with a few other years thrown in.  Map these years for summer heat: 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010.

I think that pattern was broken in 2021 when we didn't have that kind of heat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I really hope not. We're already getting lows in the 80s here in PHL. I can't imagine living through lows of 90 and highs near 110.

Doubt that....humidity is increasing, which while very uncomfortable, caps how warm it can get...HI absolutely may get that high.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it goes beyond that, look into the gap in 100 degree highs at JFK, it's been increasing, currently we have set the new record for the longest gap in 100 degree days in station history.  Ever since 1966 the gap has been growing larger.

The oceans do absorb the heat but hopefully that is about to come to an end and JFK will once again get 100 degree days with a shorter gap like we used to before.

The other sign is the complete absence of 7+ day heatwaves since 2002.  These were more common in the 70s, 80s and 90s but we haven't had a 7+ day heatwave in NYC since 2002 (when we had two) and 1999 (when we also had two).

Makes sense given CC leads to increased mositure, thus elevating humidity capping heat....its the HI that will be morbid.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Makes sense given CC leads to increased mositure, this elevating humidity capping heat....its the HI that will be morbid.

Yes that HI will be miserable for us.

It was a few years ago that JFK set their HI record (on back to back days!), both days had a high of 99 and a HI of 117, a true weekend from Hell (complete with power outages!)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doubt that....humidity is increasing, which while very uncomfortable, caps how warm it can get...HI absolutely may get that high.

This is why winter is warming faster than summer and nights are warming faster than days. The fastest rate of GW is occuring in instances of radiational cooling during the winter.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that HI will be miserable for us.

It was a few years ago that JFK set their HI record (on back to back days!), both days had a high of 99 and a HI of 117, a true weekend from Hell (complete with power outages!)

 

The one for PHL is much harder to break. If I remember correctly, the record HI was set three days after my 7th birthday, on 7/15/1995. The high that day was 103, and I believe the HI was 129 and the dewpoint was 82 (which was even higher than the low of 81 that day).

That day was just the perfect storm of the heat and humidity coming together. I can't see it ever being broken. We'll either need a very humid 101/102 degree day or a day when the thermometer reaches 108, which is 2 higher than the all-time PHL record (like it did in Newark in 2011).

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The one for PHL is much harder to break. If I remember correctly, the record HI was set three days after my 7th birthday, on 7/15/1995. The high that day was 103, and I believe the HI was 129 and the dewpoint was 82 (which was even higher than the low of 81 that day).

That day was just the perfect storm of the heat and humidity coming together. I can't see it ever being broken. We'll either need a very humid 101/102 degree day or a day when the thermometer reaches 108, which is 2 higher than the all-time PHL record (like it did in Newark in 2011).

I remeber that heatwave vividly...I was 14. The irony that it preceded the most severe east coast winter on record...

[TheClimateChanger]

17 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The one for PHL is much harder to break. If I remember correctly, the record HI was set three days after my 7th birthday, on 7/15/1995. The high that day was 103, and I believe the HI was 129 and the dewpoint was 82 (which was even higher than the low of 81 that day).

That day was just the perfect storm of the heat and humidity coming together. I can't see it ever being broken. We'll either need a very humid 101/102 degree day or a day when the thermometer reaches 108, which is 2 higher than the all-time PHL record (like it did in Newark in 2011).

Going to tough to break those inflated numbers from the HO-83 era. Big warm bias at the first order sites.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The only two summers in the 1970s that jump out at me for heat were 1973 and 1977.  Before then, our historically hot summers occurred in an 11 year cycle (1944, 1955, 1966.)  1977 still has our hottest two week stretch on record.

Of course the 1980s and 1990s were much hotter, 1980 got things started with a historic CONUS heatwave.  If I remember correctly the following summers were very hot: 1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010-2013

Actually that 11 year solar cycle has still prevailed for summer heat, with a few other years thrown in.  Map these years for summer heat: 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010.

I think that pattern was broken in 2021 when we didn't have that kind of heat.

I think 1977 is exaggerated or something. It was the second coldest on record at Pittsburgh, behind only 1976.

[TheClimateChanger]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think 1977 is exaggerated or something. It was the second coldest on record at Pittsburgh, behind only 1976.

Yes, overall, that looks like a cool summer. Compared to most modern summers, a summer of yesteryear, no doubt.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yes, overall, that looks like a cool summer. Compared to most modern summers, a summer of yesteryear, no doubt.

But still had our longest two week of heat ever and even hit 104 degrees in NYC and 100+ a few more times.

Our climate has become a joke now, too much rain and cutoff lows which we never used to see in May before.

With climate modification the first thing I would do is destroy upper level lows.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Going to tough to break those inflated numbers from the HO-83 era. Big warm bias at the first order sites.

I think it might be tough to break them because it rains much more now.

Have to remove all that water vapor (another potent greenhouse gas) and convert it to drinking water.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remeber that heatwave vividly...I was 14. The irony that it preceded the most severe east coast winter on record...

it's not ironic though many of our best winters are preceded by extreme heat.  Examples

1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010.

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Going to tough to break those inflated numbers from the HO-83 era. Big warm bias at the first order sites.

most of us lived through that lol, we remember as the 90s as being much hotter (temperature wise anyway)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why winter is warming faster than summer and nights are warming faster than days. The fastest rate of GW is occuring in instances of radiational cooling during the winter.

this is a form of self regulation by the planet.

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The one for PHL is much harder to break. If I remember correctly, the record HI was set three days after my 7th birthday, on 7/15/1995. The high that day was 103, and I believe the HI was 129 and the dewpoint was 82 (which was even higher than the low of 81 that day).

That day was just the perfect storm of the heat and humidity coming together. I can't see it ever being broken. We'll either need a very humid 101/102 degree day or a day when the thermometer reaches 108, which is 2 higher than the all-time PHL record (like it did in Newark in 2011).

Ironically we did not hit 100 here near JFK, that record from 2011 was higher here at the coast (I don't remember what the heat index was at Newark), but I know that NYC hit 104 and JFK hit 103.  My personal weather station on the south shore of Long Island hit 105.6  We had a stretch of 4 summers 2010-13 that we hit 100+ every year and the summer before set our records for most 90, 95 and 100 degree days!! In July 2010 we hit 100+ three out of 4 days and 2 more times in July 2011.  There was a weather conference in Baltimore around the time of peak heat in July 2011, everyone must have been like roasted lobster down there lol.

[TheClimateChanger]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

most of us lived through that lol, we remember as the 90s as being much hotter (temperature wise anyway)

I was living in the 90s, and I don't recall it as "much hotter." We didn't even have air conditioning in my bedroom. I don't think you could do that today. It doesn't cool down enough at night to open a window.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I was living in the 90s, and I don't recall it as "much hotter." We didn't even have air conditioning in my bedroom. I don't think you could do that today. It doesn't cool down enough at night to open a window.

Actually, I remember going to fireworks and occasionally needing a hoodie at night because it was in the low 60s. You don't need that today, because it's still 70+ at 11 pm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not ironic though many of our best winters are preceded by extreme heat.  Examples

1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010.

 

...which is ironic....

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

...which is ironic....

I think there might be a logical explanation (from the placement of NAO phase summer vs winter to the fact that warmer SST because of a hot summer add extra juice to developing noreasters and also that warmer SST attract colder airmasses during the winter.)

It sure is ironic lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I was living in the 90s, and I don't recall it as "much hotter." We didn't even have air conditioning in my bedroom. I don't think you could do that today. It doesn't cool down enough at night to open a window.

it must be a regional thing,  1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999 and 2002 were our hottest summers in terms of 90 degree temps. 2010 has been our hottest summer since then.

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Actually, I remember going to fireworks and occasionally needing a hoodie at night because it was in the low 60s. You don't need that today, because it's still 70+ at 11 pm.

Where was this?  Being a kid in the 80s, I "remembered" having lots of snow too.  Turns out the 80s kind of sucked for snow where I am.  

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Actually, I remember going to fireworks and occasionally needing a hoodie at night because it was in the low 60s. You don't need that today, because it's still 70+ at 11 pm.

I really don't concern myself with low temps-- I use 90 degree temps to define heat (it's also the official NWS definition to rank summers by number of 90 degree days.)

Higher overnight lows are the result of more water vapor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my recap of last season:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/winter-2024-2025-slightly-warmer-than.html

 

 

 

 

Index Value	Predicted '24-'25 DM   Value Range	Actual  '24-'25 DM Value	Forecast Error
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)	-1.85 to -2.15	-1.46	Biased .39 Negative
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)	-.40 to +.10	+1.02	Biased .92 Negative
ENSO	DJF -0.6 to -0.8 ONI EMI: -.5 to -.7 (Mixed-Type)	DJF -0.6 ONI DJF EMI: -.7	Verified
(J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)/DM West Pacific Oscillation (WPO)	+.30 to +.60 JM EPO -.40 to -.70 DM WPO	-.30 JM EPO +.45 DM WPO	Biased .60 Positive Biased -.85 Negative
Arctic Oscillation (AO)	+.26 to +.56	-.18	Biased .44 Negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)	+.38 to +.68	+.65	Verified

 

City	Predicted Snowfall	Actual	Forecast Error
Boston, MA	24-34"	28.1"	Verified
NewYork, NY(Central Park)	10-20"	12.9"	Verified
Philadelphia, PA	8-18"	7.7"	3.9%
Baltimore, MD	6-16"	12.7"	Verified
Washington, DC	4-14"	14.9"	6.4%
Albany, NY	48-58"	43.9"	9.3%
Hartford, CT	24-34"	23.4"	2.6%
Providence, RI	20-30"	15.6"	28.2%
Worcester, MA	50-60"	41.2"	21.4%
Tolland, CT	40-50"	32"	25%
Methuen, MA	41-51"	32.5"	26.2%
Hyannis, MA	14-24"	10.8"	30%
Burlington, VT	65-75"	75.7"	0.9%
Portland, ME	48-58"	54.1	Verified
Concord, NH	49-59"	37.5"	30.7%

Final Grade for 2024-2025 Season: B

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I really don't concern myself with low temps-- I use 90 degree temps to define heat (it's also the official NWS definition to rank summers by number of 90 degree days.)

Higher overnight lows are the result of more water vapor.

It makes a big difference though with air conditioning needs. Just in my lifetime, a linear regression shows an increase in July minimum temperatures of 3 to 4F. But that's just the daily low. IMO, it also cools off more slowly. Whereas in the past, it might reach near the daily low by 1 am and then kind of hang steady, now it's only for a little time before sunrise. I bet 8pm to 11pm temperatures have risen 5F or so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think there might be a logical explanation (from the placement of NAO phase summer vs winter to the fact that warmer SST because of a hot summer add extra juice to developing noreasters and also that warmer SST attract colder airmasses during the winter.)

It sure is ironic lol.

 

Yea, Chuck would probably agree given his NAO subsurface formula.

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Where was this?  Being a kid in the 80s, I "remembered" having lots of snow too.  Turns out the 80s kind of sucked for snow where I am.  

Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. My memory is well supported by data. Erie lakeshore used to be freezing cold deep into May. A linear regression shows an increase in May high temperatures of nearly 3.5F since 1990, which is a lot more than the Coastal Plain. It's gone from several degrees colder than New York City to only a couple of degrees colder.

May high temperatures have barely budged at New York City over the same time period.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It makes a big difference though with air conditioning needs. Just in my lifetime, a linear regression shows an increase in July minimum temperatures of 3 to 4F. But that's just the daily low. IMO, it also cools off more slowly. Whereas in the past, it might reach near the daily low by 1 am and then kind of hang steady, now it's only for a little time before sunrise. I bet 8pm to 11pm temperatures have risen 5F or so.

the funny thing is over here amount of sunshine is what defines heat for me, my body cools a lot at night, regardless of temps.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. My memory is well supported by data. Erie lakeshore used to be freezing cold deep into May. A linear regression shows an increase in May high temperatures of nearly 3.5F since 1990, which is a lot more than the Coastal Plain. It's gone from several degrees colder than New York City to only a couple of degrees colder.

May high temperatures have barely budged at New York City over the same time period.

Bradford, in the mountains of northern Pennsylvania, warmed nearly 4.5F over the same period.