2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think the 3-month head start helped in getting the 1988-89 La Nina that strong. If we applied the 1988 (-3 months) ONI values to 2024, things get interesting:

JJA 1987: +1.6 -> SON 2023: +1.6

JAS 1987: +1.7 -> OND 2023: +1.7

ASO 1987: +1.8 -> NDJ 2023-24: +1.8

SON 1987: +1.7 -> DJF 2023-24: +1.7

OND 1987: +1.4 -> JFM 2024: +1.5 (NOAA)

NDJ 1987-88: +1.1 -> FMA 2024: +1.1 (NOAA)

DJF 1987-88: +0.7 -> MAM 2024?

JFM 1988: +0.3 -> AMJ 2024?

FMA 1988: 0.0 -> MJJ 2024?

MAM 1988: -0.5 -> JJA 2024?

AMJ 1988: -1.0 -> JAS 2024?

MJJ 1988: -1.4 -> ASO 2024?

JJA 1988: -1.5 -> SON 2024?

JAS 1988: -1.4 -> OND 2024?

ASO 1988: -1.5 -> NDJ 2024-25?

SON 1988: -1.7 -> DJF 2024-25?

The ONI got down to -2.1 in OND 1988 and NDJ 1989. I can't see that trend continuing to JFM and FMA, as the la nina should have peaked by then. I think we get a strong la nina that peaks in the -1.5 to -1.7 range in winter.

 Even just a -1.5 ONI could be enough for the strongest Niña on record on a RONI basis (records back to 1950). The strongest RONI is -1.94 of OND 1973 followed closely by -1.93 of NDJ 1988-9. Keep in mind that the latest RONI (FMA 2024) is a record breaking 0.67 lower than ONI (+0.48 vs +1.15).

Here’s the list of strong RONI based La Niña:

-1.94 OND 1973

-1.93 NDJ 1988-9

-1.70 OND 2010

-1.67 DJF 1999-00

-1.65 NDJ 1998-9

-1.62 OND 1955

-1.58 DJF 2007-8

-1.52 OND 2020 (corrected)

1995-6 went down only to -0.94.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think the 3-month head start helped in getting the 1988-89 La Nina that strong. If we applied the 1988 (-3 months) ONI values to 2024, things get interesting:

JJA 1987: +1.6 -> SON 2023: +1.6

JAS 1987: +1.7 -> OND 2023: +1.7

ASO 1987: +1.8 -> NDJ 2023-24: +1.8

SON 1987: +1.7 -> DJF 2023-24: +1.7

OND 1987: +1.4 -> JFM 2024: +1.5 (NOAA)

NDJ 1987-88: +1.1 -> FMA 2024: +1.1 (NOAA)

DJF 1987-88: +0.7 -> MAM 2024?

JFM 1988: +0.3 -> AMJ 2024?

FMA 1988: 0.0 -> MJJ 2024?

MAM 1988: -0.5 -> JJA 2024?

AMJ 1988: -1.0 -> JAS 2024?

MJJ 1988: -1.4 -> ASO 2024?

JJA 1988: -1.5 -> SON 2024?

JAS 1988: -1.4 -> OND 2024?

ASO 1988: -1.5 -> NDJ 2024-25?

SON 1988: -1.7 -> DJF 2024-25?

The ONI got down to -2.1 in OND 1988 and NDJ 1989. I can't see that trend continuing to JFM and FMA, as the la nina should have peaked by then. I think we get a strong la nina that peaks in the -1.5 to -1.7 range in winter.

I agree. I think there is definitely an above normal chance of a strong La Niña. That said, do I think it gets to the levels of 73-74 or 88-89? Probably not, since those 2 are the strongest Nina’s on record

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Even just a -1.5 ONI could be enough for the strongest Niña on record on a RONI basis (records back to 1950). The strongest RONI is -1.94 of OND 1973 followed closely by -1.93 of NDJ 1988-9. Keep in mind that the latest RONI (FMA 2024) is a record breaking 0.67 lower than ONI (+0.48 vs +1.15).

Here’s the list of strong RONI based La Niña:

-1.94 OND 1973

-1.93 NDJ 1988-9

-1.70 OND 2010

-1.67 DJF 1999-00

-1.65 NDJ 1998-9

-1.62 OND 1955

-1.58 DJF 2007-8

-1.52 OND 2020 (corrected)

1995-6 went down only to -0.94.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I strongly suspect this event’s ONI synchs with the MEI and RONI this time around and is very well coupled. -PDO/-PMM/La Niña. Also, the models continue to get weaker and weaker with the +IOD this summer and have it neutral by fall. I think this trend continues and we go -IOD this fall into winter, which fits normal La Niña climo. Given this, very good chance this Niña reaches strong status IMO. Models show this event migrating west rather quickly into a “Modoki” configuration by winter. The +AMO shows no sign of letting up and just continues to get more impressive, which I believe is a by product of AGW
 

I also think we need to keep an eye on the 2 recent volcanic eruptions which not only made it into the stratosphere but also reached a cumulative VEI 5. These were classic tropical volcanic eruptions that injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere and it may have a significant impact on this winter’s NAM/AO state along with the +QBO and high solar flux

Do you have a link that shows the volcano eruption was a cumulative VEI 5? I’ve been waiting to read more about it but can’t find anything. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Do you have a link that shows the volcano eruption was a cumulative VEI 5? I’ve been waiting to read more about it but can’t find anything. 

 

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark

The +IOD made no sense anyway…
 

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

This makes sense looking back at data in the early 90s (91/92) we peaked hard on yearly temps around the PA/Philly region and dropped dramatically afterward. We also were coming off an El Nino (strong) to neutral stance and we were also in a solar max situation. huh

[so_whats_happening]

Ill take a look into it tonight/tomorrow what subsurface looked like coming off these years 72-73,87-88,94-95, 97-98. 09-10, heck ill even throw in 91-92 and make a gif just to see where we are potentially aligning with going forward. If any others years are wanted just let me know.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We've held -4c in the central subsurface for some time, which implies at least a Moderate La Nina coming. Lower chance, but still possible that it goes Strong. 

[George001]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. I think there is definitely an above normal chance of a strong La Niña. That said, do I think it gets to the levels of 73-74 or 88-89? Probably not, since those 2 are the strongest Nina’s on record

Yeah I’m thinking it gets to around the strength of the 2007-2008 or 2010-2011 Ninas. 

[George001]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast 

Yeah 95-96 is not a good analog at all, +PDO, weaker event, east based. I don’t think 14-15 and 10-11 are bad though. I like 14-15 for the atlantic (good solar match, strong consolidated PV), and 10-11 for the pacific (good ENSO match for both strength and structure, good PDO match). I’m not a fan of the way analog forecasting is done and interpreted. Using 14-15, 10-11 etc as analogs shouldn’t mean “Oh this means Boston is getting 80+ inches of snow”. It doesn’t work that way, just because there are some similarities in those years doesn’t mean the results will be the same. 14-15 is a decent analog for the Atlantic, but that was a strongly positive +PDO and a modoki Nino. A +NAO in a weak modoki Nino is a very snowy pattern, a +NAO in a moderate-strong modoki nina is a big warm signal. What Bastardi leaves out is that 2011-2012 and 2022-2023 are great ENSO analogs. AGW also needs to be considered. Bastardi fails to do this, which is a big reason why his forecast always bust cold. 

[George001]

That said, although things do look ugly right now and I would lean warm, I’m not quite as pessimistic as I was last year at this time for New England. South of NYC yeah it looks really ugly, but New England has more room for error in stronger Nina’s. Latitude is a big deal in SE ridge patterns. Could it flex all the way up to Canada? Sure it can, and it likely will at times. But it can also lead to gradient patterns where those on the north side of the gradient get hammered like 2007-2008.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Ill take a look into it tonight/tomorrow what subsurface looked like coming off these years 72-73,87-88,94-95, 97-98. 09-10, heck ill even throw in 91-92 and make a gif just to see where we are potentially aligning with going forward. If any others years are wanted just let me know.

If you can, years that went into a La Niña, solar max, volcanic, +QBO and -PDO.

The AMO is so anomalously positive right now, there are no analogs for that

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah 95-96 is not a good analog at all, +PDO, weaker event, east based. I don’t think 14-15 and 10-11 are bad though. I like 14-15 for the atlantic (good solar match, strong consolidated PV), and 10-11 for the pacific (good ENSO match for both strength and structure, good PDO match). I’m not a fan of the way analog forecasting is done and interpreted. Using 14-15, 10-11 etc as analogs shouldn’t mean “Oh this means Boston is getting 80+ inches of snow”. It doesn’t work that way, just because there are some similarities in those years doesn’t mean the results will be the same. 14-15 is a decent analog for the Atlantic, but that was a strongly positive +PDO and a modoki Nino. A +NAO in a weak modoki Nino is a very snowy pattern, a +NAO in a moderate-strong modoki nina is a big warm signal. What Bastardi leaves out is that 2011-2012 and 2022-2023 are great ENSO analogs. AGW also needs to be considered. Bastardi fails to do this, which is a big reason why his forecast always bust cold. 

95-96 was a very weak Niña, +PDO and -QBO. 13-14 was cold-neutral/La Nada, 14-15 was ++PDO and a Modoki Niño which lead to extreme +PNA and -EPO blocking. 10-11 was a solar minimum with low geomag and a low number of sunspots, it was also an extremely east-based La Niña until late January when it migrated west and became a Modoki event, then all the high latitude blocking completely disappeared in February and never came back again….not a coincidence. The only reason JB is using them as “analogs” is because they were cold and snowy winters for the east coast

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/16/2024 at 6:48 AM, snowman19 said:

I strongly suspect this event’s ONI synchs with the MEI and RONI this time around and is very well coupled. -PDO/-PMM/La Niña. Also, the models continue to get weaker and weaker with the +IOD this summer and have it neutral by fall. I think this trend continues and we go -IOD this fall into winter, which fits normal La Niña climo. Given this, very good chance this Niña reaches strong status IMO. Models show this event migrating west rather quickly into a “Modoki” configuration by winter. The +AMO shows no sign of letting up and just continues to get more impressive, which I believe is a by product of AGW
 

I also think we need to keep an eye on the 2 recent volcanic eruptions which not only made it into the stratosphere but also reached a cumulative VEI 5. These were classic tropical volcanic eruptions that injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere and it may have a significant impact on this winter’s NAM/AO state along with the +QBO and high solar flux

I don't think its going to make much of a difference because the PV is probably going to be very stout, anyway. The tenor of this winter will again be reliant on the Pacific....shocking, I know.

Agree on a very well coupled La Nina....should be like 2022-2023 in that respect, as well as the quick shift west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast 

If anything, I think there may be less recurves than typical this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, George001 said:

That said, although things do look ugly right now and I would lean warm, I’m not quite as pessimistic as I was last year at this time for New England. South of NYC yeah it looks really ugly, but New England has more room for error in stronger Nina’s. Latitude is a big deal in SE ridge patterns. Could it flex all the way up to Canada? Sure it can, and it likely will at times. But it can also lead to gradient patterns where those on the north side of the gradient get hammered like 2007-2008.

Only caveat being that most of the big gradient seasons occured during -QBO if you look.

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think its going to make much of a difference because the PV is probably going to be very stout, anyway. The tenor of this winter will again be reliant on the Pacific....shocking, I know.

Agree on a very well coupled La Nina....should be like 2022-2023 in that respect, as well as the quick shift west.

Strongly agree. And the earlier “This Niña isn’t going to couple well and strengthen because of the +IOD” argument by some on twitter is very rapidly falling apart like the IOD is

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Strongly agree. And the earlier “This Niña isn’t going to couple well and strengthen because of the +IOD” argument by some on twitter is very rapidly falling apart like the IOD is

If anything, this is likely to be a case in which the ONI may peak at say 1.4, but the MEI/RONI are like 1.7.

Same page.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If anything, this is likely to be a case in which the ONI may peak at say 1.4, but the MEI/RONI are like 1.7.

Same page.

While FMA ONI was +1.15, FMA RONI was already down to +0.48. Weeklies don't exist for RONI. But based on this FMA difference and assuming the difference is currently similar, an equivalent current RONI weekly would likely already be down to -0.2 to -0.4 (cold neutral).

[snowman19]

On 5/17/2024 at 1:14 PM, GaWx said:

While FMA ONI was +1.15, FMA RONI was already down to +0.48. Weeklies don't exist for RONI. But based on this FMA difference and assuming the difference is currently similar, an equivalent current RONI weekly would likely already be down to -0.2 to -0.4 (cold neutral).

Atmospherically and oceanically, (-PDO, -PMM, neutral IOD, most likely turning negative), it’s all systems go for this La Niña. It will have no problem coupling. Would not be surprised at all if we see a strong event

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If anything, this is likely to be a case in which the ONI may peak at say 1.4, but the MEI/RONI are like 1.7.

Same page.

Agree with you on the peak. Also agree with you that it likely becomes a Modoki event rather quickly

[snowman19]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only caveat being that most of the big gradient seasons occured during -QBO if you look.

Yep. -QBO was a big part of the reason 95-96 played out like it did besides being during a solar minimum, +PDO, weak Niña and well before AGW started to have a huge impact on our climate

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry for the delay, yesterday ended up being a lot busier than I expected.

So here is the chart I created for all years going from El Nino to La Nina. I highlighted the years that best fit the request of Westerly QBO, -PDO, High Solar (just noticed 83-84 and 92-93 should be highlighted yellow as they are still rather active years) , +AMO, and Volcanic activity ( a lot of years had a VEI 5 a year or two before the listed ranges). 49-50 QBO was a bit of a guess following the typical ~18 month span of QBO transition, data only went to 1953 for what I have.

Here are the sites used to help create this table.

Volcano Data - https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear

ENSO Data - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

                      https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

AMO Data - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

PDO Data - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Solar Cycle Data - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

QBO Data - https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry for the delay, yesterday ended up being a lot busier than I expected.

So here is the chart I created for all years going from El Nino to La Nina. I highlighted the years that best fit the request of Westerly QBO, -PDO, High Solar (just noticed 83-84 and 92-93 should be highlighted yellow as they are still rather active years) , +AMO, and Volcanic activity ( a lot of years had a VEI 5 a year or two before the listed ranges). 49-50 QBO was a bit of a guess following the typical ~18 month span of QBO transition, data only went to 1953 for what I have.

Here are the sites used to help create this table.

Volcano Data - https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear

ENSO Data - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

                      https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

AMO Data - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

PDO Data - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Solar Cycle Data - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

QBO Data - https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

Going off the idea that 3 or more fit the idea of what maybe coming the best years shown are 1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1998-1999, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021. These five had more things combined that would lead me to believe if we do indeed go into moderate to strong Nina status these may be the years to use. Here are the subsurface looks for each year. Some are just flat out not in-line with where we are but Ill leave that for folks to decide. I do have the other years if folks are interested in specific years.

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Going off the idea that 3 or more fit the idea of what maybe coming the best years shown are 1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1998-1999, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021. These five had more things combined that would lead me to believe if we do indeed go into moderate to strong Nina status these may be the years to use. Here are the subsurface looks for each year. Some are just flat out not in-line with where we are but Ill leave that for folks to decide. I do have the other years if folks are interested in specific years.

Of the years posted this is what the Dec- Mar 500mb pattern resulted in.

 

[so_whats_happening]

Whoops just realized I left out 2007-08 so six years (1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1998-1999, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021)

 

[so_whats_happening]

Again sorry for all the posts but one final one. If we combined all the years mentioned above we get not a bad look to what may be to come. Maybe warm it by about a degree?

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry for the delay, yesterday ended up being a lot busier than I expected.

So here is the chart I created for all years going from El Nino to La Nina. I highlighted the years that best fit the request of Westerly QBO, -PDO, High Solar (just noticed 83-84 and 92-93 should be highlighted yellow as they are still rather active years) , +AMO, and Volcanic activity ( a lot of years had a VEI 5 a year or two before the listed ranges). 49-50 QBO was a bit of a guess following the typical ~18 month span of QBO transition, data only went to 1953 for what I have.

Here are the sites used to help create this table.

Volcano Data - https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear

ENSO Data - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

                      https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

AMO Data - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

PDO Data - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Solar Cycle Data - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

QBO Data - https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

Very nice. I remember HM’s write up at the end of the 10-11 winter….he said the high latitude AO/NAO blocking was due to the solar cycle. Even though solar activity was rising that winter, it was coming off a solar minimum and had low sunspots and low geomag, which HM said caused the extreme blocking early-mid winter. It was also a very east-based Niña until late January, which I believe also played a big role

[snowman19]

@Gawx

Oh the irony. Now he’s posting the CFS showing a strong Modoki La Niña come November AND a -PDO