mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The RUC has been very solid for us - 1Z is a good storm too Look at the 850mb lp bomb Pinhole eye yeah, those higher UVV's that were on our doorstep at the end of the 0Z run make it to central MD on the last panel of the 1Z run and winds are still out of the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 My guess is that the GFS is more reasonable with respect to location of the low level features given the upper level support, but please use caution with GFS qpf, as it never shows a sharp enough cutoff and thus will likely be too high in the fringe regions. Where it shows the max amounts may be okay but it needs more of a gradient from the max zones to the min zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 yeah, those higher UVV's that were on our doorstep at the end of the 0Z run make it to central MD on the last panel of the 1Z run and winds are still out of the east That very well could drag the surface low NW toward Cape May NJ extrapolating out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 They do? They strongly agree on it. Wes posted a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 My guess is that the GFS is more reasonable with respect to location of the low level features given the upper level support, but please use caution with GFS qpf, as it never shows a sharp enough cutoff and thus will likely be too high in the fringe regions. Where it shows the max amounts may be okay but it needs more of a gradient from the max zones to the min zones. I was hoping for 3-6" all week...seems like I will need some really high ratios to get that especially if the NAM is correct. Eh...still gonna watch and play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 That very well could drag the surface low NW toward Cape May NJ extrapolating out. I can live with that down here sorry, but there's a little Paris Hilton in all of us now and then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 They strongly agree on it. Wes posted a map. Ah ok. Was this it? This is only for a 24 hr period but the sref is really pretty tightly clustered over the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 They do? Yes, pretty much. Very tightly clustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 They strongly agree on it. Wes posted a map. you have to be close to 1" then as I know I'm a hair on the high side of .75", speaking of the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SLP is 1006.6 at a city in N FL at 9 PM (not sure which one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I was hoping for 3-6" all week...seems like I will need some really high ratios to get that especially if the NAM is correct. Eh...still gonna watch and play. Good luck. I would take the under on 3-6" back in Leesburg definitely... but hopefully I'll be wrong and you can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SLP is 1006.6 at a city in N FL at 9 PM (not sure which one) I have Cross City FL at 1005.4 mb on GREarth...KCTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 2" so far in downtown midlothian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Good luck. I would take the under on 3-6" back in Leesburg definitely... but hopefully I'll be wrong and you can cash in. Thanks Brian....we get lucky back here sometimes but since Ji moved in to my hood i get the feeling that is about to end. Crazy storm for a big Nina huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 2" so far in downtown midlothian Street stickage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Mod snow here in Staunton, maybe about a half inch here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM has you guys in VA on south with a decent band for a while, then it dries out that seems to be related to those instability showers moving southward from PA and OH (the drying out that is) BWI/DCA have to wait for the cut off 5H low to work its magic along with the 7H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Seems to be a decent band headed this way, temp is dropping too, down to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't know why I even look at those RUC radar images, but I'm pretty sure they just recycle the same images for 3-4 hours in different orders just to F2Ck with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 29.9 here in Pikesville. Overcast. I love the smell of upcoming snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I've lived around BWI long enough to know that generally, this is a great radar signature for us http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=fcx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM has you guys in VA on south with a decent band for a while, then it dries out that seems to be related to those instability showers moving southward from PA and OH (the drying out that is) BWI/DCA have to wait for the cut off 5H low to work its magic along with the 7H NAM is probably 2-3" here 3-4" at DCA and 4-5" at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Btw, how many of y'all had a white Christmas? We still had about 1.5 in from the snow last week left on the ground, it snowed a little this morning, and now it's snowing again. Can't really ask for better Christmas weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I've lived around BWI long enough to know that generally, this is a great radar signature for us http://radar.weather...id=fcx&loop=yes great as in it should give us a good amount of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I've lived around BWI long enough to know that generally, this is a great radar signature for us http://radar.weather...id=fcx&loop=yes Great, but I feel like our snow totals will be good or bad based not on this but on the low offshore, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 great as in it should give us a good amount of snow? great as is when its that far SW of us and its headed NE and expanding to the north as those individual elements were, it will get us now, it could stall, etc., but that's a radar I always look to for confirmation one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does Band over SW VA Movng NW mean anything airmass wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I've lived around BWI long enough to know that generally, this is a great radar signature for us http://radar.weather...id=fcx&loop=yes I've only gotten 2 inches from this so far--and literally since 5 am had snow falling every hour. When the coastal gets cranking, it literally RIPS all the moisture out of the VA west of 95... (Best depicted on the NAM) This happens some times, but not all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Great, but I feel like our snow totals will be good or bad based not on this but on the low offshore, no? that's what the computers seem to think. but they are all related and it doesn't hurt to have moisture from the south feed in either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM is probably 2-3" here 3-4" at DCA and 4-5" at BWI Just remember that even those who get the biggest fringing still see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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