Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[canderson]

DFW just closed down its entire departure bank. It’s hailing there. And the worst is yet to come. 

They’ve had a horrific week. 

[Powerball]

33 minutes ago, canderson said:

DFW just closed down its entire departure bank. It’s hailing there. And the worst is yet to come. 

They’ve had a horrific week. 

Also, Flash Flood & Severe Thunderstorm Warning here in Collin County.

[Powerball]

It's also crazy because no models picked up on this activity and there was only a 20% chance of precip as of this morning.

[Powerball]

Even parts of Louisiana / Arkansas that weren't even under the SPC outlook for severe weather are now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch...

[canderson]

23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Even parts of Louisiana / Arkansas that weren't even under the SPC outlook for severe weather are now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch...

Weird motion to the storms S of the metroplex. Some are moving due north, some due east, some NE and some stationary. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Looks like the ridge runners are slowly moving N and E as the Mexican heat ridge builds in.  Highest heights look to be in Chihuahua, and all the ensembles at 360 hours show normal or even slightly below normal temps for much of the E half of the state.

[Chinook]

Every squall line ends up at Shreveport

yesterday's nearly 24-hour long squall line produced severe weather towards Mississippi and Louisiana

heavy rain

[cstrunk]

I'm on day 8 in a row with measurable rainfall, with several multi-inch events within this span. Tomorrow morning will likely be day 9.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Heat ridge still stubbornly refusing to lock in.  Another NW flow event next week on all the ensembles.  Tuesday afternoon & evening looks like another round of severe weather for NTX if GFS is any guide..

[Powerball]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Heat ridge still stubbornly refusing to lock in.  Another NW flow event next week on all the ensembles.  Tuesday afternoon & evening looks like another round of severe weather for NTX if GFS is any guide..

Next week's been shot for a while.

It's the 3rd week of June when it should really lock in.

[Stx_Thunder]

22 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Heat ridge still stubbornly refusing to lock in.  Another NW flow event next week on all the ensembles.  Tuesday afternoon & evening looks like another round of severe weather for NTX if GFS is any guide..

Saw towering cumulus (convergence bands) early this morning moving onshore around here. So subsidence from H5 furnace High over the state now is not strong (despite lack of moisture aloft currently over the coastal region). H5 heights are just barely above 590dm around here.

Pretty weak for STX standards.

- - - - -

Both Euro and GFS showing a fairly deep northerly M-UL flow & some notable DL shear over the state for this time of year, this upcoming week on the northeastern periphery of High moving further west-southwest again back over Mex. And, the cutoff H5 Low sitting just west of Baja.

- - - - -

That should cause some decent ML shortwave energy from that Low to curve east around the northern side of the High and then southeast - southward, deep into the state as the High is still projected to be pretty weak/small (still just around 590dm center) on GFS today. Which I wouldn’t doubt, all things considered lately. Euro this morning is a little more bias.

Overall so far, a sig turnaround compared to June last year in 2023 when the furnace High really grew & strengthened like hell on earth by mid-month. Also, still not seeing a real strong signal on the furnace High really taking over either on ensembles the next couple of weeks. GEFS and EPS are actually starting to trend upward on Total QPF at the end of cycles over the Eastern half of state on latest runs.

- - -

‘Will see how July goes with the furnace High (which normally starts to take over more then). But I’m basically calling this a “make-up” summer for 2024 now, as we also got a meandering H5 Low or wave starting to show up just east of the coastal region & some 2+ in. PWs moving over the coast (more so over SETX) on both models, after Fathers Day.

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Saw towering cumulus (convergence bands) early this morning moving onshore around here. So subsidence from H5 furnace High over the state now is not strong (despite lack of moisture aloft currently over the coastal region). H5 heights are just barely above 590dm around here.

Pretty weak for STX standards.

- - - - -

Both Euro and GFS showing a fairly deep northerly M-UL flow & some notable DL shear over the state for this time of year, this upcoming week on the northeastern periphery of High moving further west-southwest again back over Mex. And, the cutoff H5 Low sitting just west of Baja.

- - - - -

That should cause some decent ML shortwave energy from that Low to curve east around the northern side of the High and then southeast - southward, deep into the state as the High is still projected to be pretty weak/small (still just around 590dm center) on GFS today. Which I wouldn’t doubt, all things considered lately. Euro this morning is a little more bias.

Overall so far, a sig turnaround compared to June last year in 2023 when the furnace High really grew & strengthened like hell on earth by mid-month. Also, still not seeing a real strong signal on the furnace High really taking over either on ensembles the next couple of weeks. GEFS and EPS are actually starting to trend upward on Total QPF at the end of cycles over the Eastern half of state on latest runs.

- - -

‘Will see how July goes with the furnace High (which normally starts to take over more by then). But I’m basically calling this a “make-up” summer for 2024 now, as we also got a meandering H5 Low or wave starting to show up just east of the coastal region & some 2+ in. PWs moving over the coast (more so over SETX) on both models, Fathers Day weekend into following week.

 

 

Just a look at the US and Canadian ensembles, NTX is getting the most rain.   Canadian OP shows little rain near/S of I-10. Sort of OT, but South Florida looks rather wet on those ensembles, with the op runs of both suggesting near/more than 1 foot next week.  I suspect IMBY, any rain will come on the afternoon sea and bay breezes, although an MCS surviving from the DFW area isn't a non-zero. possibility, as they say.  Early Euro suggests a bit of the trough to the E of us may pinch off and move W, that scenario would seem favorable for enhanced afternoon storms along the TX coast.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Light and variable winds (except in t-storms near Corpus Christi) and RAP PW of 1.7 inch or higher (AOA 2 inches from Matagorda Bay down to Mexico) is probably supporting the weakening MCS moving offshore near CRP and the sea/bay breeze storms forming just inland further N.  Not sure where the front is exactly, but it is probably also helping.  There is also a broad mid-level low over NM/TX Panhandle which per 12Z NAM will be ejecting random bits of vorticity.  Now that the floods have gone down. the longer the occasional rain kicks in before the summer heat ridge builds in, the better.  May keep the ridge a bit weaker with evaporational cooling of damp grounds.  May make for an overall milder summer.  Euro/American and Canadian ensembles all show the ridge centered out in New Mexico and Arizona in 2 weeks, which may keep us from the two months of 100F or higher temps in STX of 2023.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS and ensembles suggest frequent showers this time next week from a weak but broad area of lower pressure deep in the BoC that pumps in high PWs into STX, over 2.5 in Houston, and close to 2.7 inches in Alice, the town I consider the center of South Texas.  I had a friend who finished college before me who lived there, I visited several times, had a brief relationship with my friend's GF's sister, and saw a real John Wayne movie style bar fight, started with 2 women, then their boyfriends jumped in, and then the whole bar.  I stood with my back to a corner so I wouldn't take a beer bottle to the head from behind.

 

Anyway, I am of the belief that a heat ridge delayed is a heat ridge weakened, delayed and with wet ground, doesn't get as strong due to feedback from hot and dry ground.  The daily rainfall in this scenario of 1 to 2 inches per day wouldn't cause flooding.  Globals differ in detail, but all show elevated PW

[Stx_Thunder]

MCS and Spring thunder/severe season has pretty much ended for the state now. ML lapse rates have really dropped since a week ago (has been even < 5.0 C/km at times on BRO & CRP soundings).

- All to my dismay.

- - - - -

In any case going into TX tropical season now, GFS is really (likely overdoing) rainfall accumulation through next week, showing > 10 in. over STX in latest 0z run tonight with convective feedback problems likely involved.

Euro remains much more steady & conservative with just a few inches. Which would be the more likely scenario. Especially, if Bay of Campeche disturbance does go TS (deeper moisture ‘get held further south).

Both models though, have been showing areas of up to an impressive 3+, PW over the Western Gulf next week (since a couple days ago or so).

 

- -

Multi-global model consensus thunder/deeper convection probs still on the higher side Wednesday morning - Thursday evening, over much of TX coast.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 6/13/2024 at 5:20 AM, Stx_Thunder said:

MCS and Spring thunder/severe season has pretty much ended for the state now. ML lapse rates have really dropped since a week ago (has been even < 5.0 C/km at times on BRO & CRP soundings).

- All to my dismay.

- - - - -

In any case going into TX tropical season now, GFS is really (likely overdoing) rainfall accumulation through next week, showing > 10 in. over STX in latest 0z run tonight with convective feedback problems likely involved.

Euro remains much more steady & conservative with just a few inches. Which would be the more likely scenario. Especially, if Bay of Campeche disturbance does go TS (deeper moisture ‘get held further south).

Both models though, have been showing areas of up to an impressive 3+, PW over the Western Gulf next week (since a couple days ago or so).

 

- -

Multi-global model consensus thunder/deeper convection probs still on the higher side Wednesday morning - Thursday evening, over much of TX coast.

GFS is 3 to 4 times more precip then the Euro, but both maximize rain over the Upper Texas Coast (but no part of the coast escapes several inches) as the BoC tropical low stays poorly organized allowing the best convergence and PW to be well N of the lowest pressure.  GFS shown because a foot or more for Houston isn't happening, but eye catching colors.  PW values are close for the Euro, but 30 knot 850 flow doesn't get the moisture in as fast.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

@Stx_Thunder Heaviest rain away from the immediate coast is shifting S on the models towards CRP.  San Antonio and Austin are in level 2/level 3 drought, the rain is a good thing for them.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

39 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

WPC maintaining Moderate risk area in both  latest Day 2 & 3 outlooks today over mid-coastal region, but still seems unjustifiable in D2 period over SETX. D3 reasoning is much more justifiable.

- CRP office has now issued flood watch in afternoon update.

- - -

GFS still going unrealistic with 25” bullseye accumulation total further inland in latest 12z run today.

Euro has trended a bit lower which indicates slightly better chance TC development happening over western Gulf (but definitely still supports abnormally high or very heavy rainfall/flood risk either way this week with an almost full 1.00 value now on 24hr precip extreme wx index).

- Though, most of the European models do also support 10+ in. rainfall over lower-middle coast.

-

It has been fairly dry in Brownsville area or lower coast, but not that dry.

Seeing how these deep tropical convective influences (rain rates very easily over 3”/hr) have happened in past 2 decades in June, it can sometimes very easily go from an existing drought to deluge in just a matter of a day or two, with enough training/banding.

I think I recently read Falcon is at an all time low level.  Euro rain is less drought relief ( ~2 inches) for San Antonio and Austin than they'd want, although I suppose not flooding is a benefit.  ICON and Euro both really enhance rain right at the coast, I'm guessing they handle coastal convergence better.  NWS has harris County in a flood watch and shows 4-6 inches, which I suspect is about double what will actually fall near Houston

[Jebman]

On 6/16/2024 at 1:18 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

@Stx_Thunder Heaviest rain away from the immediate coast is shifting S on the models towards CRP.  San Antonio and Austin are in level 2/level 3 drought, the rain is a good thing for them.

IF we could get the rain. I'd love to see 2-5 inches tomorrow here in Buda BUT models are shifting the heavy stuff south. Nina summer/autumn does not look good for us, much drier, hotter in Nina.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Less than a quarter inch at Bush.  Dripping water from a very bright sky.  OTOH, waterspouts quite close to the beach in Galveston.

https://x.com/JordanHallWX/status/1803465736712511510

 

Tornado warnings off and on, some very close to Corpus Christi.  Watch possible. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Radars from BRO and CRP look nice.  IMBY. won't be much rain, probably under half an inch storm total, but today is a day the AC will run a lot less than usual.

[Stx_Thunder]

Been raining pretty hard here for most, if not all this morning, but haven’t heard any thunder around me even though seeing some thunder cells moving around - west of Rockport in the last hour or so. But seeing a new, deeper convective band getting its act together just offshore of the coastal bend right now.

Wind has died off despite a 30 - 35 kt flow just off the surface on BRO & CRP vwp radar. And mostly easterly, unidirectional now as well. Up to 40 kts @ H5. It was actually windy last night before TC 1 was named Alberto earlier today.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

but today is a day the AC will run a lot less than usual.

That’s literally one of the very best things when these convective tropical events happen this time of year. Last week was pretty hot (though normal STX summer heat/humidity) around here also. So I’m getting a good A/C break today, indeed.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Been raining pretty hard here for most, if not all this morning, but haven’t heard any thunder around me even though seeing some thunder cells moving around - west of Rockport in the last hour or so. But seeing a new, deeper convective band getting its act together just offshore of the coastal bend right now.

Wind has died off despite a 30 - 35 kt flow just off the surface on BRO & CRP vwp radar. And mostly easterly, unidirectional now as well. Up to 40 kts @ H5. It was actually windy last night before TC 1 was named Alberto earlier today.

Maybe it is tightening up as it *very* slowly organizes.  I've caught a few heavier showers last hour in the very N part of the N-most band.  Maybe I'll do better than half an inch.  Maybe I won't.  3km NAM shows very bandy rainfall, with >4 inch stripes N and S of Corpus Christi, but far less from CRP.  Areas under an inch.  I assume NAM would be close this close to landfall.  Those bands shift a smidge and CRP could see 4 or 8 inches of rain.

 

 

[Stx_Thunder]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Maybe it is tightening up as it *very* slowly organizes.

Likely so, which explains why there isn’t too much going on east, offshore right now. I’m even seeing some areas of ‘clear sky’ on vis satellite east of Brownsville. 

 

But also, seeing more deep convection starting to wrap around Alberto further southeast. The center of circulation is pretty evident on daytime satellite right now in the SW Gulf.

I’m waiting to get on the ‘feeder side’ as there’s usually more persistent deep convection & thunder activity (obviously very high(est) rain rates) on the Eastern periphery of the circulation. All the very deep moist DL inflow coming from southeastern Gulf & Caribbean.

ML lapse rates are typically more elevated in that region with these tropical systems (6 - 7 range).

Can see 2 fairly notable feeder bands offshore to the east, with one starting to train into SETX. It should start to fill in again offshore in the next couple hours (but especially this evening).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

16 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Likely so, which explains why there isn’t too much going on east, offshore right now. I’m even seeing some areas of ‘clear sky’ on vis satellite east of Brownsville. 

 

But also, seeing more deep convection starting to wrap around Alberto further southeast. The center of circulation is pretty evident on daytime satellite right now in the SW Gulf.

I’m waiting to get on the ‘feeder side’ as there’s usually more persistent deep convection & thunder activity (obviously very high(est) rain rates) on the Eastern periphery of the circulation.

ML lapse rates are typically more elevated in that region with these tropical systems (6 - 7 range).

Can see 2 fairly notable feeder bands offshore to the east, with one starting to train into SETX. It should start to fill in again offshore in the next couple hours (but especially this evening).

I'm at the extreme edge of the N-most feeder band.  The rainfall gradient in the Houston area will be impressive.  After the two heavy but brief showers around 2 pm just sprinkles.  I was just out, I can see the edge of the heavy rain to the S, and it is close. Small patches of clearing with hazy blue sky show more cumulus buildups to the E, we may get a few more brief showers but I'd go a little under half an inch storm total on an over/under betting line.  Hobby, I'd go the under, Galveston is already over an inch and a half, it should get to 2 inches.  CRP is 2.3, BRO is similar, a hair less.

[Powerball]

Looks like potentially several consecutive days of 100*F+ temps are looming for DFW next week, starting as early as this upcoming. Sunday.

For perspective, the first 100*F+ day last year wasn't observed until 6/26 (which ended up with 55 days total).

[Stx_Thunder]

Even though Alberto is pretty much done, still getting TS force gusts around here this afternoon. Deep convective inflow feeder bands this morning were still quite heavy at times also (even though PW has sig dropped from yesterday evening). Definitely over 3”/hr rates, but could’ve easily been 4”/hr +.

Rockport, has come in with right around 10 in. rainfall in that area. But not sure if that’s the entire total from TS Alberto this week on the storm report posted today. Especially this morning’s deep convective activity over the coastal bend region.

-

Still does not look like it’s going to dry out with another entity in the SW Gulf this weekend/early next week. So the flooding potential will still be in place around here. Especially with the low FFGs brought by TS Alberto now.

Even through next weekend (end of June), both Euro & GFS still holding onto aoa 2” PWs at times over the Eastern half of the state (even in NTX).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

28 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Even though Alberto is pretty much done, still getting TS force gusts around here this afternoon. Deep convective inflow feeder bands this morning were still quite heavy at times also (even though PW has sig dropped from yesterday evening). Definitely over 3”/hr rates, but could’ve easily been 4”/hr +.

Rockport, has come in with right around 10 in. rainfall in that area. But not sure if that’s the entire total from TS Alberto this week on the storm report posted today. Especially this morning’s deep convective activity over the coastal bend region.

-

Still does not look like it’s going to dry out with another entity in the SW Gulf this weekend/early next week. So the flooding potential will still be in place around here. Especially with the low FFGs brought by TS Alberto now.

Even through next weekend (end of June), both Euro & GFS still holding onto aoa 2” PWs at times over the Eastern half of the state (even in NTX).

That system looks like it will be less of a rainmaker this far N, the slop gyre is weakening and shifting W as the ECUSA ridge builds back.  Mid level humidity is lower and heights will be higher/  GFS and GEFS show only the lower RGV topping 2 inches and MBY getting about one half inch.  DFW at near 1.8" PW still has subsidence and a large dry later from 700 to 400 mb per GFS..

[Powerball]

DFW is currently at +1.0°F for June. The departure will likely increase further as we head into the final week of the month. If so, while not be record-breaking, that will mean another solidly above average month temp-wise despite the wet soils and all of the rainfall.

There may be a bit of a fly in the ointment though, as there are hints we could at least be grazed by ROF convection out of OK/KS/AR midweek with a transient breakdown of the eastern ridge.