Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[Powerball]

I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties.

I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon).

[radarman]

Seeing pics of tennis balls from the cell NW of the metroplex

[Powerball]

8 minutes ago, radarman said:

Seeing pics of tennis balls from the cell NW of the metroplex

And that's what the latest warning in Wise County calls for (Tennis Ball Size Hail).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Hard to tell from the haze, but local (IAH, HOU, SGR) airports reporting cumulonimbus or thunder and there are a few cells around on radar.  I  Nor did HGX morning discussion) didn't think anything would develop locally with the cap in place (15Z RAP sounding for 18Z shows a convective temp of 103F), we'd be looking for storms from Central Texas..  IAH is 88/76.  8.7C/Km 700-500 mb lapse rate on the model sounding.

 

About North Texas, waiting to see when storms develop on the warm side of the boundary.  Which is past DFW proper.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties.

I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon).

And there is it. Tornado Watch in effect until 9pm...

[radarman]

Here is the special sounding from north of the boundary.  

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Here is the special sounding from north of the boundary.  

As usual, there's that cap...

The sounding actually looks less impressive than it did this morning.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Near 70F dewpoints should be enough for a tornado or two in the Metroplex, even on the N side of the boundary although low level shear is near non-existent.  I'm guessing the cell E of Abilene is riding the boundary or just N of it.

[beavis1729]

5 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

McAllen TX was 103/77/120 yesterday...that's absurd for any time of the year, but especially so in early May.

And it's even worse today.

Brownsville is 102/80/124, and McAllen is 107/74/121...just unbearable. 

[Chargers09]

That’s just Texas weather lol 

[Chinook]

This storm that produced up to baseball sized hail and, more recently, golf ball sized hail.

[radarman]

It just hit the outflow boundary too.  Thinking if there is any tornado risk, which is slim right now, it might be a parallel to and south of US 67 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The effective front is passing Waco, storms are developing.  Tornado warned storms in the Hill Country, radar indicated.  Would reach I-35 around sunset, waiting to see if the supercells grow upscale, meaning my part of Texas sees weather tonight.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

This storm that produced up to baseball sized hail and, more recently, golf ball sized hail.

 

Possible grapefruit hailer with that supercell that went just southwest of Fort Worth a little while ago.

- - -

Lots of hail reports with basically all kinds of diameter all around DFW area so far today.

 

 

2 hours ago, Chargers09 said:

That’s just Texas weather lol 

Exactly my thoughts when I saw that McAllen temp info post. Nothing unusual there with 100s by May. Even sometimes as early as March in the past.

Not to mention, even Kingsville was easily having that along with HI near 130 last June here around STX.

[Stx_Thunder]

Definitely not dropping the flooding tag (at least for another week or two, possibly not till June). Both GFS & Euro have been stepping up since early this week on rainfall totals for the eastern half with another meandering front involved, into next week.

Not surprised at all as in/out heavy rainfall & flood provoking MCS activity is typical for May just about every year nowadays. Especially coming out of a formidable EN winter and what’s already been going on still only being in the beginning of month.

ETX rainfall totals for the past 30 days must be either at or very near 30 inches in some spots (like Huntsville area) now in that > 20” white area.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Softball sized hail with a tornado warning for San Marcos.  Been to a few tailgates there, Edward graduated last year from Texas State.  No jumping in the river tonight...

[Chargers09]

Boo Texas state 

 

 

(I’m a UTSA alumni)

[Chinook]

23 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

 

Possible grapefruit hailer with that supercell that went just southwest of Fort Worth a little while ago.

- - -

Lots of hail reports with basically all kinds of diameter all around DFW area so far today.

 

 

Exactly my thoughts when I saw that McAllen temp info post. Nothing unusual there with 100s by May. Even sometimes as early as March in the past.

Not to mention, even Kingsville was easily having that along with HI near 130 last June here around STX.

I'd say the 4.0" - 4.5" hail is the largest I've seen on a report during most years. You can easily see why that type of cell was possible based on forecast soundings/ SPC maps for significant hail parameter. (4.5" hail would be a nightmare... In fact it was a nightmare. A long time ago, someone died in Fort Collins Colorado due to a 4" hailstone.)

Southern Texas had a heat index of about 120 yesterday and isolated locations in Mexico got over 110 measured temperature. Meanwhile my place here in Ohio was dreary and cold.  My old favorite place in Colorado, that is, Estes Park, got snow to 8000 ft as viewed by the national park cams.

[Stx_Thunder]

Looking pretty favorable for both severe (hail/damaging winds) & flooding on Monday.

More MCS activity likely over ETX, but especially SETX overall (front will be hanging around there also), with decent DL shear for mid May (40 - 50 kts), instability and support for lift aloft from the next incoming Low into the plains on both GFS & Euro latest runs.

SPC now has fairly large slight risk for eastern half on Monday.

WPC’s ERO has possible moderate risk upgrade on Sunday, but will probably also expand Monday's ERO slight risk to cover most of SETX or Houston area also. Especially with the continued model projection of 2”+ PW pooling ahead of the front around there. Already seeing some evidence of that potential on Brownsville (BRO) 12z observed sounding this morning with PW at 1.98”, where front is currently meandering in deep STX also causing some elevated convective activity as of typing this post this morning.

Other typical storms/supercells are expected to develop out west over Mexican terrain later this afternoon and progress east into hill country and south into STX. But 12z HRRR also showing new development around Houston area overnight into Sunday morning.

- - -

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm now in the rare (for us) tornado watch.  We've had a couple of solid rain showers with thunder on the N side of Harris County, but nothing remotely close to severe limits.  RAP sounding IMBY for 2 pm shows long, skinny CAPE, 50 knots of deep shear, but weak low level winds.  2.2 inch PW, looks more like a heavy rain sounding than anything severe.  All models show heaviest rain well N of here, but perhaps close to Trinity River, which is well below peak but still above flood stage in SETX.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Houston in a hatched hail for tomorrow.  I've seen severe (quarter sized) hail just once in 25 years.  I was driving home up 45, only time I have ever seen a supercell with an actual wall cloud.  No obvious damage to my car, but that was loud.

[cstrunk]

1.26" so far today in Longview and it's not quite done yet. Nice soaking rain.

I think tomorrow's severe threat is going to get pushed farther south/east again. Models not looking impressive (IMO) due to lingering precip tonight/tomorrow morning across areas of eastern Texas.

[Chinook]

8 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Houston in a hatched hail for tomorrow.  I've seen severe (quarter sized) hail just once in 25 years.  I was driving home up 45, only time I have ever seen a supercell with an actual wall cloud.  No obvious damage to my car, but that was loud.

Already 3" to 5" have rain fall in some areas north of Houston in the last 24 hours.  NWS has flood watches from the Florida Panhandle to Dallas.

[Chinook]

Quote

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION

SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.

note: 5% tornado outlook

[cstrunk]

I-10 special today from San Antonio through Houston later mostly for wind/very large hail.

Ended up with 1.49" yesterday.

[beavis1729]

On 5/9/2024 at 3:55 PM, Chargers09 said:

That’s just Texas weather lol 

I suppose...but this early in the season? Any Heat Index above 95F is horrible imo, so yes I'm biased. 

[Stx_Thunder]

Finally cashed in on some actual convective action down here Monday. Nothing severe or any hail where I was (despite the impressive sig severe & hail index parameters on 12z CRP sounding Monday morning), but was still a decent thunder show & actual rainfall.

Seeing a fairly good amount of severe wind & hail (a few near 3” diameter) reports from San Antonio area & south on SPC reports for Monday.

Also got that nice little ‘cool’ front (that was stalled up around San Antonio - Houston area) to top it off tonight after all the storms moved offshore before sunset, and got a renewed northwest wind after nightfall.

Slightly lower DP comfort of course, not lasting here after today (Tuesday), but it’s definitely better now outside tonight than it had been literally all last week, but also for a change, no haze from agricultural burn smoke down south (Central America region) like there had been since the start of the month.

- - -

Looks like thunder action will be picking up again in state later this week on Thursday.

I should also be able to cash in again some too as long as the better shortwave energy doesn’t track too far off to my north like it had been the past 2 weeks.

CRP NWS office mentioned in Monday afternoon AFD, up to 2.5 in. PW around the coast Thursday. Seeing that on latest Euro run tonight, but not as high on latest GFS. But, if 2.5” verifies, that’d definitely be way above normal for mid May anywhere in the state. And would obviously cause more flash flooding. Especially of course, in ETX with such very deep column moisture.

 

** Edit: GFS going as high as 2.6” PW on Friday.

[Powerball]

00z GFS in particular is looking quite torchy for the Southern Plains starting this weekend through the end of May.

Obviously the models will continue to struggle with the exact details over the next several days and potential MCS along the edges will complicate things the further north one is, but with a deeply -PNA and the MJO headed into Phase 4, the signal pattern-wise for that well-advertised Mexican heat ridge to expand/settle NE is definitely there.

And with it in all likelihood being a dirty ridge, it's going to be an oppressively muggy one too (similar to last June).

For the folks down in South/Central Texas, better savor the last of your widespread rain / cloud cover chances this week while you can...

[Chinook]

Yesterday was a weird day with a couple of rounds of severe weather for South Texas. The first round was much earlier in the afternoon or morning. The enhanced risk seems to have been pretty good.

[cstrunk]

59 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Yesterday was a weird day with a couple of rounds of severe weather for South Texas. The first round was much earlier in the afternoon or morning. The enhanced risk seems to have been pretty good.

The enhanced risk was pretty good, but the slight risk extending up towards Texarkana was a bust. Models never really showed much north of I-10 in TX and LA, due to the substantial convection across S/SE TX and S LA... and that's what happened. Marginal risk for the northern uncertainty would have sufficed (and still not verify).