Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[Stx_Thunder]

High water rescues were going on in Kaufman, in the NETX MCS this afternoon. DFW radar estimating a southwest-northeast strip of significant rainfall. Embedded 7-inch storm totals in that area southeast of Dallas.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Unfortunately I try to sleep at 1 am, but 12Z HRRR finally gets thunderstorms in Houston, with near 2500 J/Kg MLCape (after midnight!) and 40 knots effective shear.  Enhanced Severe on 1300 SWODY1 gets as close to Houston as San Jacinto County.  @Stx_Thunderhas access to t-storm probability maps.

 

This begins the time of year when the Corpus Christi 12Z sounding has 4500 J/Kg surface cape but a 99F convective T.  Amazing values of CAPE that will not be tapped by storms.

[Stx_Thunder]

15 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Unfortunately I try to sleep at 1 am, but 12Z HRRR finally gets thunderstorms in Houston, with near 2500 J/Kg MLCape (after midnight!) and 40 knots effective shear.  Enhanced Severe on 1300 SWODY1 gets as close to Houston as San Jacinto County.  @Stx_Thunderhas access to t-storm probability maps.

 

This begins the time of year when the Corpus Christi 12Z sounding has 4500 J/Kg surface cape but a 99F convective T.  Amazing values of CAPE that will not be tapped by storms.

I think you’re gonna have more overnight wake ups in May now that we’re getting into peak MCS month (and especially coming out of a fairly strong EN winter). They tend to happen (and peak in intensity) more often during night.

Anyone can see those multi-global model consensus thunder probability maps (and most other maps/model data on there) completely free & easily on https://weather.us

I just post those on here to be informative

CRP 0z observed sounding this evening showing pretty favorable convective environment over STX (more typical now getting into May). Just of course, lacking the necessary lift off to the north/east and doesn’t look like anything till sometime tomorrow/Tuesday.

That shouldn’t be a problem in Houston area tonight (but could be on west end of it). Should be a pretty good thunder show there overnight as that MCS in East TX is taking its time propagating south this evening (could be higher end flood threat that region next several hours). WPC highlighting flooding likely in MCD for that region this evening.

Also seeing a really good amount of positive CGs just like in the QLCS that moved through northern half of state last night.

 

 

[Stx_Thunder]

Seeing reports of numerous road closures and water over roads in Madisonville and Huntsville areas from that persistent, slow-moving and pretty potent MCS (seeing pretty cold cloud tops near -80 C not far northeast of Houston area on satellite).

Rainfall totals at or over 10 inches in some spots around that part of East TX also.

A well-defined outflow should crawl into Houston within the next few hours and storms may persist a good part of this morning around there as seeing the LLJ maintaining at least 30 knots (seeing 35 now on Houston VWP radar still generally southerly in the lower levels).

- - - - -https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0200&yr=2024

 

 

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***** Later this week:

[Stx_Thunder]

Multiple reports early this morning of impassable roads from another 8 - 10 inches in waterlogged Huntsville area, from the MCS activity going on in East TX since early yesterday evening (Wednesday). 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0208&yr=2024

[olafminesaw]

I've never seen a storm with such high DBZ values not get Severe warned. Quite odd! Must be just small hail.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

It rained a lot at work near DWH

[Stx_Thunder]

Definitely looks like more flooding in East TX early this morning. Especially in Huntsville area and/or just north/east of Houston area once again with that next MCC upstream moving fairly slow southeast (just south of DFW area). But intensity could be limited overall this time with all of last night’s activity causing some stability in that part of the state. Though FFGs (flash flood guidance values) are already very low around Huntsville area and pretty much all around there too, so it won’t take much more rain at all now.

WPC maintaining Moderate risk in Houston area, but 850mb flow is now apparently (but modestly) deep out of the southwest on Houston VWP radar so that’s probably going to limit convective intensity a good amount with new development more likely further east unless an MCV comes right next to Houston.

Tonight’s 0z ARW run has a fairly good handle on the ongoing thunder system in north-central part of state moving through most if not all of SETX in some organized form later this morning (some remnant boundaries from yesterdays activity in the area to work with also around there).

 

[Stx_Thunder]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=213&yr=2024

[Stx_Thunder]

East Tex = SOAKED (and still not done yet)

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm not sure whether 'Future Cast' is a private model, but Thursday night, both KPRC and KHOU used it, and it predicted the heavy rain Friday afternoon, not early morning Friday.  Getting to work in Tomball was hairy.  Nowhere near as much rain fell in Spring (I'm in the Spring ISD with a Houston mailing address).  The heavy rain fell in almost the same places.  HRRR 12Z is more rain just E of the worst impacted areas, and a lot of it, other models are drier.  River flood statements have dates of comparable floods, late August/early September 2017 (Hurricane Harvey) and October 1994 (flooding from remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rosa) are showing up.

[Powerball]

This is going to be one hell of a muggy Summer...

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks like solid MCS activity across most of the state tonight - Sunday with some pretty strong ML shortwave energy coming in. Already seeing some robust clustering going on right now with initial thunder development over Panhandle region.

WPC going with another moderate risk area right around Houston through tomorrow (they’ll likely have to maintain that). I reckon 30-day rainfall totals just northeast of there in East TX will be 30 inches (potentially even higher looking at Sunday’s rainfall/flood parameters), by Tuesday morning TexMesonet update.

Both Euro & GFS showing fairly substantial at or near 2” PW pooling (which can definitely happen by May) going on into Sunday, generally between San Antonio - Houston area (there looks to be a stalled front set up in this region), and south to the coast.

 

-  The Euro has an extreme weather index value between 0.1 - 0.99 for 24-hour rainfall, and it’s been verifying pretty well with near 0.7 values & higher, since about 2 weeks ago now of the flood-producing MCSs in East TX.

 

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8 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'm not sure whether 'Future Cast' is a private model, but Thursday night, both KPRC and KHOU used it, and it predicted the heavy rain Friday afternoon, not early morning Friday.  Getting to work in Tomball was hairy.  Nowhere near as much rain fell in Spring (I'm in the Spring ISD with a Houston mailing address).  The heavy rain fell in almost the same places.  HRRR 12Z is more rain just E of the worst impacted areas, and a lot of it, other models are drier.  River flood statements have dates of comparable floods, late August/early September 2017 (Hurricane Harvey) and October 1994 (flooding from remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rosa) are showing up.

It’s looking more likely that such records north of Houston are going to be broken after tomorrow’s activity. Which looks to be pretty heavy seeing all the 500mb shortwave energy moving through the state tonight - Sunday with even deeper moisture interaction because of a stalled front hanging around your area. Which definitely provides focus for heavier activity and training cells.

Seeing it’ll all be through Sunday, you should be able to enjoy all the action going on before the new work week starts

[Stx_Thunder]

Tons of positive CGs going on:

[Stx_Thunder]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0228&yr=2024

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Rain has stopped and the clouds are breaking.  Almost full sun in Houston area.  I think we get by with only scattered storms the rest of today.

 

Mid week, GFS shows >100F temps along the river where the 10% hatched hail is today.  Summer may start a couple of weeks before meteorological summer per GEFS.

[Stx_Thunder]

Heard one very good rumble when some cells popped up nearby a couple hours ago (a good sign for me today especially having missed out on all the convective energy & action up north during this past week).

Watching the cells this afternoon southwest of San Antonio that are currently gathering along the boundary that can be seen fairly well now with all the activity ongoing from Del Rio - Houston.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0186.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0639.html

Given these early May afternoon convective scenarios down around here in the past, a few discrete, usually large HP supercells tend to erupt along such outflow fronts and move southeast all the way to the coastal bend before dissipating when they move off the coast. HRRR was also really hinting at that on yesterday evening 0z run.

12z ARW-2 run this morning seems to have a pretty good handle on what’s going on today. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two supercells manage to get down into deep STX also.

 

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Rain has stopped and the clouds are breaking.  Almost full sun in Houston area.  I think we get by with only scattered storms the rest of today.

Second round moving into Houston now.

Definitely would not say things are done around there (possibly more organized 3rd or even 4th round). At least until this evening as there’s definitely a boundary hanging around there and another shortwave (causing the new storms southwest of San Antonio) that will be approaching SETX later this afternoon.

[Stx_Thunder]

Didn’t see or hear much where I was Sunday afternoon - evening except for 2 decent +CGs nearby outside of all the cells that day. Though I did manage to capture some photo-worthy, near sunset storm clouds off to the south/east as the trailing MCV that caused the storms over the Rio Grande plains & brush country (south of San Antonio), went southeast into deep STX with a last gasp of cells before everything just fell apart at nightfall.

Apparently was mainly day heating-sustained, but did see an EML around 850mb on Brownsville 0z sounding that evening.

Took the photos just after 8 pm.

* Saw several CG jumpers (clear air strikes from upper body) about a minute apart from each other on that strongest, rightmost/southernmost cell with the mushroom anvil & overshooting top.

Didn’t stay mature like that for long though, and I didn’t even have to look at the radar at all while I was watching it outside with the last of daylight to know it was already having trouble maintaining itself. Both the overshooting top & mushroom anvil flanked out pretty quick after I took that photo. No more than 20 minutes at most.

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[cstrunk]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0210.html

Tornado watch up in Texas.

[Powerball]

DFW achieved a high of 91*F yesterday and 95*F today.

Today's high ties the record, and it's also the first 95*F+ day of the year.

[Powerball]

In addition to tying the record high, DFW also saw its earliest highest dewpoint ever observed with the dewpoint topping out at 78*F today.

Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

12Z HRRR moves a nasty looking cell right through DFW late afternoon, >4000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 50 knot shear.  I'm calling a hail storm watch.

[beavis1729]

13 hours ago, Powerball said:

In addition to tying the record high, DFW also saw its earliest highest dewpoint ever observed with the dewpoint topping out at 78*F today.

Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995.

McAllen TX was 103/77/120 yesterday...that's absurd for any time of the year, but especially so in early May.

[cstrunk]

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

[Sydney Claridge]

37 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW.

While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35.

[radarman]

Haven't heard of plans for an FWD special sounding yet, but it would be fun to see one.  The 12z sounding was impressive.

[cstrunk]

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

 

1 hour ago, Sydney Claridge said:

There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW.

While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries.

 

51 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35.

I agree. Looks like SPC disagreed with the Enhanced delineation in the area I mentioned... and even nudged it slightly more north. I wonder what they are seeing.

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, cstrunk said:

 

 

I agree. Looks like SPC disagreed with the Enhanced delineation in the area I mentioned... and even nudged it slightly more north. I wonder what they are seeing.

Will just have to keep an eye on the radar trends at this point.

A watch (Severe Thunderstorm) is incoming...

 

[Powerball]

That one cell moving into Jacksboro is currently warned for Golf Ball Size Hail.