Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[aggiegeog]

The fire situation NE of Amarillo is horrible. The main complex consisting of Windy Deuce Fire, near Lake Meredith, and Smokehouse Creek Fire, started near Stinnett and now crossing into Oklahoma, has officially burned over 500k acres. If you measure the the perimeter of hot spots this morning from this complex you get something closer to 1.5m acres. There are other large fires scattered around the Panhandle also.

[aggiegeog]

Smokehouse Creek Fire is now over 1M acres. The largest fire in Texas history surpassing the East Amarillo Complex Fire which burned 900k acres. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

 

[Stx_Thunder]

Been seeing some persistent thunder clustering (likely elevated, seeing tops no more than about 30 Kft on ET radar) going on around DFW the past couple hours.

Things seem to be winding down for now, (especially with not much CAPE in place on 12 Z observed sounding this morning). But there was some pretty powerful CG strikes around the area on lightning data earlier this afternoon with this one being the strongest I saw on analysis:

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Winter returns in a week.  Not cold enough for anything fun, just cold.  I'd expect to have warm stretches in March w/ daytime highs AOA 80F, and after this week, I don't see it.  May see some severe N of here Thursday and Friday, but I don't see enough warmth for anything after that.

[Chargers09]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Winter returns in a week.  Not cold enough for anything fun, just cold.  I'd expect to have warm stretches in March w/ daytime highs AOA 80F, and after this week, I don't see it.  May see some severe N of here Thursday and Friday, but I don't see enough warmth for anything after that.

Using a 200+ hour gfs run doesn’t convince me it will happen. What is the gefs showing

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, Chargers09 said:

Using a 200+ hour gfs run doesn’t convince me it will happen. What is the gefs showing

GFS and Euro ensembles are singing the same song.  Not like I was calling for a snow storm 8 days out.

[magoos0728]

On 3/10/2024 at 10:44 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS and Euro ensembles are singing the same song.  Not like I was calling for a snow storm 8 days out.

Coming down for some R&R at the end of the month. Hopefully we’ll see an 80…

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Seeing a few high-based thunder cells popping up from an incoming ML shortwave across deep south since before sunrise this morning. BRO/CRP NWS offices did not forecast anything for today until they saw it now but already had somewhat steep ML lapse rates on Brownsville 0Z sounding yesterday evening.

Already a good sign a more convectively active pattern is starting to return as later this week/weekend should be pretty fun with a parade of shortwaves coming in a more active southern stream. Potentially even part of next week seeing latest Euro runs as it got this morning’s high-based thunder activity around here right. And it’s been doing pretty well since the beginning of the year.

‘Was not seeing very good reasoning with SPC’s D 4-8 severe risk highlights over the northeastern half (DFW region) as shear values were already projected to be modest there (consistently around 40 kts on both GFS & Euro the past couple days). And trending even more modest now on very latest runs on both models last night, for Thursday afternoon/evening. Though not too surprising on SPC’s part as they’ve been overforecasting the risks in the state lately. There may be a couple of supercells initially, but not seeing any kind of sustained/significant severe risk. Except for frequent lightning, smaller hail & heavier rainfall/flash flooding moreover. Might be a better severe risk in the southern half this weekend with higher shear values.

 

Good instability, the NAMs show a pretty stout cap.

[Stx_Thunder]

Seeing new, fairly strong thunder development with the dry line/front closer to Abilene area right now with one embedded supercell near Coleman that was apparently producing 2” hail just a short time ago.

The more reliable ARW2 and NSSL convective models are showing things organizing into some sort of linear MCS around DFW area (seeing some cells trying to initiate just north of there now also), and propagating south through ETX and toward Houston this morning (Friday) like the globals had been indicating the past days. Models are also insistent on some actual thunder cells (possible supercell or two) firing along the Rio Grande near Laredo overnite and moving east/northeast but that seems to be very conditional for tonight. Though I’m seeing one little thunder cell popping up not too far southwest of Brownsville right now also.

There’ll likely be a significant outflow generated with N/ETX activity if it does organize and that would serve for renewed convective development later in the afternoon or evening closer to Del Rio - San Antonio - Houston area. Which still looks interesting for some severe potential into this evening. Then again Saturday and into STX also.

[aggiegeog]

Temps as low as 27 in East Texas this morning with a frost for the whole region. 

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks like another decent thunder show for the mid-upper coastal region with building elevated instability later tonight/Thursday morning (cap/MUCIN strongly forecast by globals & CAMs to erode overnight with a fairly strong ML shortwave coming in from the west). Could have a couple of supercells near or just off the coast also with sufficient DL shear in place again around or just under 50 kts, but looks like strongest stuff will be offshore (sfc-based instability out there).

SPC also has marginal & slight risk outlined for the mid-coast region tonight - through Thursday night.

Despite more limited moisture further north, there looks to be another convective round & severe hailers Thursday evening/night in the Eastern half and towards Houston as that same cutoff parked Low over the desert southwest for about a week now (that caused last weekend’s storms & severe) begins to open up and move off to the east through NTX/OK, bringing stronger lift & colder mid-level temps over the eastern half of state tomorrow afternoon/evening.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

In a severe warning at 6:30, fair amount of lightning but no hail or strong winds.  No warnings but impressive line segment NW of San Antonio currently.

[Stx_Thunder]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

In a severe warning at 6:30, fair amount of lightning but no hail or strong winds.  No warnings but impressive line segment NW of San Antonio currently.

Supercell got going there in San Antonio a short while ago and dropped tennis ball hailstones in the northwest area. A good ways bigger than what the radar was indicating in the cell (1.25”). A couple of other reports around 2.00” in that same area of the city also.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 inch PW is more common in August.  Severe signal is muted Monday in East Texas on NAM, long skinny CAPE from a near saturated sounding although impressive hodo, closer to I-35, nice EML and better CAPE, but hodos not good.  6Z Euro has widespread 4 inch 48 hour rainfall with near 7 inch bullseyes in Piney Woods.  GFS not as dramatic and a smidge N, but a signal for excessive rainfall in N and E Texas.  WPC has N and E Texas in a SLIGHT RISK area Monday and Tuesday for excessive rain.  WPC 5 day QPF over 5 inches extreme E Texas to the ArkLaMiss.

[canderson]

I’ll be back home this weekend so you can book severe storms in East Texas. It happens every 2nd weekend of April when we visit. Has for 12 straight years before last year’s calm weather. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Baseball hail just N/NW of Austin.  I assume this will grow upscale, may stay as far S as I-10 and wake me up an hour before my alarm is set for.

[Powerball]

Thrusday seems to have some promising severe potential for DFW, granted it's looking primarily to be a gorilla hail threat (followed by downburst winds).

[Stx_Thunder]

A little surprised nothing still hasn’t been mentioned at all about it on here (only being 2 days away now), but 2023 - 24 winter, is not actually done completely for TX just yet..

GFS has been consistent on it for a week now, and now that the AO has apparently entered a new negative phase, a very late season Polar front looks to edge through most, if not entire state by Sunday night (even though airmass duration is obviously going to be brief being next to May now).

Canadian now showing lows Monday morning (22nd), in the 30s near DFW (I’m sure this is still significantly below normal for later April standards up there). 40s, San Antonio & Houston.

Other models not as cold at that timeframe which explains why NWS is still being very conservative in state forecasts, but 12z NAM this morning (which always does best with these shallow polar and arctic air masses), at the end of run does show air temp at 50 F by Saturday evening in NTX. More likely 40s with forecast elevated thunder activity ongoing behind front Saturday afternoon, causing stronger evaporative cooling effects.

Potential MCS (may be a few supercells/iso severe with 40kt DL shear on Euro) further south moving through the central/southern half ahead of front into the evening Saturday.

-

 

 

[Powerball]

GEM has a massive cold bias. So I can say with confidence 30s aren't going to happen in DFW, especially with the extensive cloud cover expected

Beyond that, I hate cold weather and I'm ready for Summer. So frankly, I'm dreading the temps over the next few days and personally have no interest in discussing it.

For others, I suspect there's not much interest in discussing it because it's way too cold for severe weather (whatever thunderstorm activity there is will be elevated) yet still way too warm for wintry precipitation.

[cheese007]

Tor warned supercell heading towards the Lampasas area

Tornado Warning
TXC281-190000-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.240418T2319Z-240419T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Lampasas County in central Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 618 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 20 miles northwest of Lampasas, moving
  southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Lampasas County, including the following locations...
  Lometa and Nix.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 9853 3134 9838 3117 9824 3109 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 330DEG 10KT 3127 9842

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Dunn

[Powerball]

I will say, this is some of the fiercest (and loudest) thunder & lightning I've seen in a long time for elevated t'storms.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Been consistent for days, heavy rain N & W of Houston, NWS HGX has issued a Flood Watch for the counties North and West of Houston, including Montgomery County.  HRRR is especially enthusiastic.

 

What has also been consistent, first on the globals, and now the mesos, a very sharp cutoff between heavy rain and much lighter rain.

 

Edit to Add:  My son flying from DFW this evening and American has been delaying his flight.  WPC has a meso rainfall discussion for pretty much the entire stretch of I-20.

[Stx_Thunder]

5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Been consistent for days, heavy rain N & W of Houston, NWS HGX has issued a Flood Watch for the counties North and West of Houston, including Montgomery County.  HRRR is especially enthusiastic.

 

What has also been consistent, first on the globals, and now the mesos, a very sharp cutoff between heavy rain and much lighter rain.

 

Edit to Add:  My son flying from DFW this evening and American has been delaying his flight.  WPC has a meso rainfall discussion for pretty much the entire stretch of I-20.

Both GFS & Euro last night forecasting generally 5 in. area totals for this weekend’s system/polar front or large linear MCS activity tonight between Dallas & Houston region. Doesn’t look like enough for sig flooding even though WPC has large (supposedly higher-end threat) excessive rainfall slight risk in D1 outlook/discussion, and despite parts of East TX seeing a good amount of rainfall in recent weeks.

*** Should also add, HRRR not the most reliable as it always tends to overdo its convective depictions.

 

8 hours ago, Powerball said:

I will say, this is some of the fiercest (and loudest) thunder & lightning I've seen in a long time for elevated t'storms.

Which is why stronger updrafts and severe can never actually be ruled out in elevated storms with enough DL/effective shear (especially nowadays). 12z observed DFW sounding this morning was also showing high elevated CAPE & LI just under 800 Mb layer. Even though ML lapse rates a bit meager (just about 7).

[Stx_Thunder]

Just as I suspected on my first post from Thursday, 40s now in DFW by this evening with all the convective activity & resulting evaporative cooling effects going on behind the polar front today.

Models not doing the best on convective placement. But GFS & 12z HRRR run this morning seem to have the ‘best’ handle on storms going on in the state today.

[Chinook]

There's a supercell on the Mexican foothills this evening with higher CAPE values. It's always interesting to see isolated cells with the S Texas radars if they are kind of close. For this cell, it's distant.

[Powerball]

Now that the crap is behind us, the next 2 weeks are looking pretty solid. Not necessarily a blow torch, but definitely warm with temps in the 70s/80s.

The projected blocking over the Atlantic / Greenland is a little concerning, with respect to the risk of an occasional backdoor "polar" front, but the -PNA should help to keep much of its influence to the NE of Texas.

[Chinook]

We'll probably start a severe weather thread for the Thu/Fri time period.

[Stx_Thunder]

Lots of 40s / lower 50s across the state Monday morning. Very comfortable 70 degree high & 50s DP down here (which are not common by this time of year), and had elevated storms moving around me both Sunday (with a good amount of small hail droppers, interestingly), and Monday mornings. Which was a good cherry on top.

Last hurrah frontal airmass of spring outside was good while it “lasted”, very early this week. That looks to be about it for TX comfort season until later fall  

 

- Onto MCS month, coming up.

 

On 4/20/2024 at 8:59 PM, Chinook said:

There's a supercell on the Mexican foothills this evening with higher CAPE values. It's always interesting to see isolated cells with the S Texas radars if they are kind of close. For this cell, it's distant.

That convective/supercell phenomena out there west/southwest of Laredo over the open Mexican terrain east of the Sierra mountains is MUCH more common during the Spring months, every year than you might be thinking. The orographic lift from those mountains further west is also what encourages the development out there over the flat terrain.

[Stx_Thunder]

Must be a fairly strong shortwave coming into the state today.

Despite pretty strong BL capping and warm 700Mb temps on sounding data down here early this morning, had an elevated storm still manage to get going nearby tapping into >8 ML lapse rates with a good amount of CGs (though thin & weak on lightning analysis), within the past hour or two.