north pgh Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Sleet has moved in here as well. My temp is 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Heavy snow at 1,180ft. Was sleet in my neighborhood in the valley lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Back to mix and sleet. Was pretty cool though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Up near McIntyre square I can see snow trying not quite making it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Back roads are awful. Two accidents on my way home. Very icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Still some pingers mixed in with some splattering flakes. A better placed HP and this would’ve been a rush hour mess. Hopefully we get a nice banana HP, when the time is right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 So far today it definitely has trended worse overall. Now let's see what happens when the cutter moves out and if the models can resolve any minor details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: So far today it definitely has trended worse overall. Now let's see what happens when the cutter moves out and if the models can resolve any minor details. Not a great day in general for snow chances. Hopefully we have some good changes tonight. Looking like an all out blizzard for the game at Buffalo. Can't imagine those snow rates with the Arctic air fetch over record warm lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I'm tired but NAM appears to have like 3-4 inches with some overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS moved to Euro, CMC seems headed that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Awful. What a horrible waste. 2 cutters and everything after out to sea until our mild up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Oh well. Another year with no decent storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 We’re ok. Hang on everyone. Stay positive!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Yeah we’ll only need 40” in Feb/March to get our seasonal total back to normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Ride the snowiest model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 It’s January 13th, no reason to say winter’s done. Will we reach seasonal average maybe not, but there is a ton of time of decent storms. There are always lean years. The last decade caused averages to go up so that obviously means winters were better than normal. We’re paying for those now. We’ll get ours again, and if you don’t believe that, then I feel bad for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Ride the snowiest model Honestly, to put a positive spin on it, rooting for the first wave to be the focus and come in stronger is our best hope to steal a few inches. Thats been the trend, this is more of a Monday night "event" now because of that. I wouldn't totally dismiss the end of week storm either. We need the NS to dig deeper and get the storm going below us. Still to many variables to write anything off. After that, the cold look breaks down, but late Jan / early Feb still looks like we will have a reload of a workable pattern. By then a "great" winter is off the table if we fail to that point, but a good storm or two and getting close to average not out of the question. Backloaded winter given Nino climo was always the expectation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 15 minutes ago, Ahoff said: It’s January 13th, no reason to say winter’s done. Will we reach seasonal average maybe not, but there is a ton of time of decent storms. There are always lean years. The last decade caused averages to go up so that obviously means winters were better than normal. We’re paying for those now. We’ll get ours again, and if you don’t believe that, then I feel bad for you. We basically said the same thing. I fall into that trap myself sometimes, looking ahead on the models you get in your head January is over, but in reality it's only half way through. Plenty of time for something to come up in the medium or short range too. Sure you can identify favorable longwave patterns from 10-14 days out for when a storm might come together, but in reality its rare a storm past 7 days happens as modeled from that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Temp is dropping pretty quickly now, lat or near freezing. Looks like an area of light snow moving through shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 37 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Honestly, to put a positive spin on it, rooting for the first wave to be the focus and come in stronger is our best hope to steal a few inches. Thats been the trend, this is more of a Monday night "event" now because of that. I wouldn't totally dismiss the end of week storm either. We need the NS to dig deeper and get the storm going below us. Still to many variables to write anything off. After that, the cold look breaks down, but late Jan / early Feb still looks like we will have a reload of a workable pattern. By then a "great" winter is off the table if we fail to that point, but a good storm or two and getting close to average not out of the question. Backloaded winter given Nino climo was always the expectation. First wave maybe thebbest bet looks like NAM will be a hit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: We basically said the same thing. I fall into that trap myself sometimes, looking ahead on the models you get in your head January is over, but in reality it's only half way through. Plenty of time for something to come up in the medium or short range too. Sure you can identify favorable longwave patterns from 10-14 days out for when a storm might come together, but in reality its rare a storm past 7 days happens as modeled from that range. Yeah, and a lot of times surprise events do pop up. It can happen. I think too many people hinge the entire winter on 6"+ storms and historic storms. That's not the Pittsburgh climate. We are and most always are a nickel and dime climate. Wonder if any snow squalls pop up with any arctic fronts. Another event that isn't well modelled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 16 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, and a lot of times surprise events do pop up. It can happen. I think too many people hinge the entire winter on 6"+ storms and historic storms. That's not the Pittsburgh climate. We are and most always are a nickel and dime climate. Wonder if any snow squalls pop up with any arctic fronts. Another event that isn't well modelled. On the squalls thing, HRRR is still on steroids with the fropa tomorrow. Drops afternoon temps into the single digits and puts down a quick inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, TimB said: On the squalls thing, HRRR is still on steroids with the fropa tomorrow. Drops afternoon temps into the single digits and puts down a quick inch. Something to consider for sure. HRRR isn't too bad usually. Single digits seems a little extreme for today, but maybe, tomorrow's high is only supposed to be around 21, so maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 RGEM puts down 8” kuchera on its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: Something to consider for sure. HRRR isn't too bad usually. Single digits seems a little extreme for today, but maybe, tomorrow's high is only supposed to be around 21, so maybe. HRRR handled the Arctic front in Dec 2022 very well. Looked at it, saw afternoon temps around -5 or -6 or so and dismissed it. Then it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, TimB said: RGEM puts down 8” kuchera on its run. Good to see even if it's overdone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The models seem to be picking up on that finger curling up toward the area. Let's hope this trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Gfs has nothing fwiw. Wish the globals got on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 We're basically in the short range models mostly, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Ahoff said: We're basically in the short range models mostly, right? If the GFS and globals show nothing I wouldn’t put any stock in longer tw short range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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