Central PA Winter 23/24

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Since @Bubbler86 likes to reference Ralph lately...another of Ralphie's favorite "instructions" is to "keep expectations in check" which applies here...

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That song has one of the funniest misheard lyrics ever, IMO.  It perfectly fits too.    The real lyric is Shes gone, Oh I, Oh I'd better learn how to face it....and lots of people think they are saying better learn how to bake instead of face it.   As silly as that sounds, if she leaves you indeed better learn how to bake. 

 

 

England Dan and John Ford Coley had a song in the 70s "Really Love To See You Tonight" - the start of the chorus is "I'm not talking about movin' in" but I swore for years they were singing "I'm not talking about the linens" LOL

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

England Dan and John Ford Coley had a song in the 70s "Really Want To See You Tonight" - the start of the chorus is "I'm not talking about movin' in" but I swore for years they were singing "I'm not talking about the linens" LOL

Got a real ear for music, ehh? Lol

I've been playing the guitar for 51 years and many songs I learned to play I have no idea of the lyrics except for the refrain, chorus or title. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

England Dan and John Ford Coley had a song in the 70s "Really Love To See You Tonight" - the start of the chorus is "I'm not talking about movin' in" but I swore for years they were singing "I'm not talking about the linens" LOL

I thought the same thing...

[Bubbler86]

In this song, Peg, the real lyrics are below and what I thought they were saying beside it

Peg
It will come back to you
Peg
It will come back to you
Then the shutter falls  (Then we showed them Star Wars)
You see it all in 3D (You see it Always)
It's your favorite foreign movie

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

England Dan and John Ford Coley had a song in the 70s "Really Love To See You Tonight" - the start of the chorus is "I'm not talking about movin' in" but I swore for years they were singing "I'm not talking about the linens" LOL

I've got one for ya.......when I was a kid, anytime the song "Let's Go" by The Cars came on, instead of the hook being "I like the nightlife baby", I thought they were saying "I'd like a night light baby".  What can I say, I was very young 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I've got one for ya.......when I was a kid, anytime the song "Let's Go" by The Cars came on, instead of the hook being "I like the nightlife baby", I thought they were saying "I'd like a night light baby".  What can I say, I was very young 

Yes! That's an easy one to misunderstand. Then again...Mrs. Training says that I'm terrible with lyrics. I told her that when I was a kid, I thought that Rod Stewart was singing about "Cow Shit" instead of "Passion".   

[Bubbler86]

Somewhere Tony Danza's ears are getting red waiting for someone to mention his lyrics funny. 

[Atomixwx]

Slow weather day, we're talking about Tony Danza tapdancing across der iKon.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[mitchnick]

Just about had it with these illusions of threats. 

[mitchnick]

In 24 hours, Eps went from the top map to the bottom one. Remind me again what use the ensembles are.

And we're supposed to believe the Extended Eps? Lol

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In 24 hours, Eps went from the top map to the bottom one. Remind me again what use the ensembles are.

And we're supposed to believe the Extended Eps? Lol

I think they are great for verifying op's pattern predictions, but snow means maps?    Fine to discuss but to me they are no more valid than an Op snow map. More smoothed over but highly likely to change.  

[Bubbler86]

@Itstrainingtime rumors about the Sixers are Drummond around the NBA fast and furious. 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think they are great for verifying op's pattern predictions, but snow means maps?    Fine to discuss but to me they are no more valid than an Op snow map. More smoothed over but highly likely to change.  

It's a quick way to show the results from run to run changes. Lot quicker than showing a bunch of maps and explaining what the changes would mean especially since the real question is "how much snow." Plus its 5-6 days away so we can expect subtle differences to continue. But that's just my $00.02 opinion.

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Itstrainingtime rumors about the Sixers are Drummond around the NBA fast and furious. 

Following...

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

In 24 hours, Eps went from the top map to the bottom one. Remind me again what use the ensembles are.

And we're supposed to believe the Extended Eps? Lol

You have to dive into it deeper to get more meaningful use out of them. I utilize probabilities more at this range to try to get a rough idea on where the ensemble is focusing swath. Here’s the comparison between today (left) and 0z (right) with 24hr probs of 1”+. 

Both runs focused best probs on northern PA and esp interior upstate NY and northeast. The newer run really ramped up percentages while keeping the same general area of best probs because more individual members are starting to zero in on the swath. 

The numbers on the means in the Mid-Atlantic region on the 0z run lose their luster with the probabilities. DC was getting its 2.2” mean despite only between 10-20% of its members showing an inch or more in 24 hrs. The mean is mainly driven by two members showing more than a foot and a few showing a decent snowfall. 

0z

Here’s 12z, lost some of the members showing a more moderate snowfall and the two outliers that showed big numbers are showing nothing now. 

[Bubbler86]

Sandbags and galoshes are the call for gifts this Valentines Day on the 18Z GFS though it did trend south a bit. 

 

[Bubbler86]

N Lanco cash in on the way out the door.

 

[Bubbler86]

Pretty massive disappointment for PD this run.   500 is drastically different.   Laughable difference.   Ridge sends PD into the Midwest. 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

You have to dive into it deeper to get more meaningful use out of them. I utilize probabilities more at this range to try to get a rough idea on where the ensemble is focusing swath. Here’s the comparison between today (left) and 0z (right) with 24hr probs of 1”+. 

Both runs focused best probs on northern PA and esp interior upstate NY and northeast. The newer run really ramped up percentages while keeping the same general area of best probs because more individual members are starting to zero in on the swath. 

The numbers on the means in the Mid-Atlantic region on the 0z run lose their luster with the probabilities. DC was getting its 2.2” mean despite only between 10-20% of its members showing an inch or more in 24 hrs. The mean is mainly driven by two members showing more than a foot and a few showing a decent snowfall. 

0z

Here’s 12z, lost some of the members showing a more moderate snowfall and the two outliers that showed big numbers are showing nothing now. 

First, I  don't get the individual members with Pivotal package.  But I  had this long response almost finished, but in lieu of that, I simply find the ensembles of little value because they can't nail down a forecast at range and once within 48 hrs, operationals make more sense with their higher resolution.  Blend of models is the better option to ensembles imho because it uses higher resolution solutions in deteriming an average forecast, but it's slow to update and has too much stale data that works to defeat its accuracy. But I  appreciate your post.

 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Pretty massive disappointment for PD this run.   500 is drastically different.   Laughable difference.   Ridge sends PD into the Midwest. 

 

 

 

Honestly, I  do not buy the talk of great snow threats down the road.  Some years, it just doesn't want to snow, and this year is one of them.

[Blizzard of 93]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Honestly, I  do not buy the talk of great snow threats down the road.  Some years, it just doesn't want to snow, and this year is one of them.

Lol, 1 bad run & you’re out….?!?

See you at 0z…!

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS was not too far off from the good run at 6z earlier today.

I think we are still in the game with 5 days to go.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, 1 bad run & you’re out….?!?

See you at 0z…!

I said I don't buy the talk of great snow threats down the road. We may get snow, but the hype that has gone on in the MA forum and other internet sites suggesting the pattern will support heavy snows like 58 and 2010 is what I  don't buy.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I said I don't buy the talk of great snow threats down the road. We may get snow, but the hype that has gone on in the MA forum and other internet sites suggesting the pattern will support heavy snows like 58 and 2010 is what I  don't buy.

Again, see you at 0z….

Seriously, relax, it’s 1 freaking long range GFS run.

It just had a fantasy snowstorm the previous 3 runs, but as soon as that goes away, you believe that one?!

I don’t get it…

[Bubbler86]

Pork chop bowl brother style 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Again, see you at 0z….

Seriously, relax, it’s 1 freaking long range GFS run.

It just had a fantasy snowstorm the previous 3 runs, but as soon as that goes away, you believe that one?!

I don’t get it…

I made 1 post commenting on a similar feature on 3 runs that's 11-12 days away doesn't mean I  believed it. Next week has a greater chance of snowing imby, but I  don't believe it will based on current guudance. And who's not relaxed? Why can't people just give their opinions, good or bad, about our/their chances without being told to relax? If I relax any more, I'm going to soil my pants! And it's not 1 Gfs run. I  said it the other day, we should be seeing model runs consistent with the patterns advertised on the long range products at this point. 

Look, we're on the same team, but I  just see the outlook for the rest of the game differently. That could change at some point, but until I start seeing various models start to advertise looks conducive to potential big snows, I remain unconvinced of great results from the modeled great patterns.

That said, I would  be remiss if I  didn't mention todays weekliesshowed  the east coast with AN precip for the last 3 weeks of the forecast period. That's a first.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I made 1 post commenting on a similar feature on 3 runs that's 11-12 days away doesn't mean I  believed it. Next week has a greater chance of snowing imby, but I  don't believe it will based on current guudance. And who's not relaxed? Why can't people just give their opinions, good or bad, about our/their chances without being told to relax? If I relax any more, I'm going to soil my pants! And it's not 1 Gfs run. I  said it the other day, we should be seeing model runs consistent with the patterns advertised on the long range products at this point. 

Look, we're on the same team, but I  just see the outlook for the rest of the game differently. That could change at some point, but until I start seeing various models start to advertise looks conducive to potential big snows, I remain unconvinced of great results from the modeled great patterns.

That said, I would  be remiss if I  didn't mention todays weekliesshowed  the east coast with AN precip for the last 3 weeks of the forecast period. That's a first.

 

It’s all good & I appreciate your posts & contributions on here.

Truthfully, no one knows exactly how this will play out over the last 6 weeks of realistic snow season.

I am looking forward to tracking the good & bad on here over the next several weeks. Hopefully we get a few snow wins before we start counting mows in April.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are CTP’s thoughts for early next week.

Cooler temperatures will slowly seep back into the area Sunday into early next week in the wake of the aforementioned cold
front. At the same time, an upper- level trough traversing the
central United States should aid in the development of sfc low
pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Long range models track this low towards the Mid-Atlantic region in the Monday/Monday night timeframe. There is still
considerable uncertainty in terms of the amount of cold air in place ahead of the system as well as the track of the surface
low. These two ingredients will be critically important for
what, if any, impacts there are from wintry precipitation. A few
members of the GEFS and ECENS depict potential for significant
snowfall across portions of Central PA but many others bring little to no snow to the region. Our current forecast depicts a consensus forecast with snow across the northern tier and Laurel Highlands with rain in southern PA. This matches well
with the WPC Winter Storm Outlook that paints a 10-30% chance of plowable snowfall in the Laurels and northern mountains.
Significant changes in the forecast are possible (if not likely)
in the coming days and interests should check back on the forecast frequently.

[Blizzard of 93]

I agree with them that this is not over.

“Significant changes in the forecast are possible (if not likely)
in the coming days and interests should check back on the forecast frequently.”