Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[wasnow215]

I'm always "Johnny positive" about snow lol. I just don't see how we get good accumulations with temps above 32°  even after dark. Snow depth shows a couple inches total. I want to be wrong more than anything. 

[jlewis1111]

5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I'm always "Johnny positive" about snow lol. I just don't see how we get good accumulations with temps above 32°  even after dark. Snow depth shows a couple inches total. I want to be wrong more than anything. 

4-8 on grass

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

4-8 on grass

Would be cool

[Berlin1926]

Hard to read through the noise on the main page.  How're we doing down in our part if the Mid-Atlantic?

[ldub23]

Channel 13 futurecast has 3.9 for NN and 2-2.5 for southside all above freezing but after dark

[ldub23]

I remember a snow a few  years ago That was a  heavy rain storm but  turned to heavy wet snow around  2-3am Monday. I think the temp dropped to about  33.5 and the  flakes were huge and  awesome to look at. It was so heavy it accumulated to 2 inches  of  pure slush on the roads. 

 

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Channel 13 futurecast has 3.9 for NN and 2-2.5 for southside all above freezing but after dark

Yes-that'll be when it has to be. We need to root for a slow down of the system lol

[wasnow215]

12K NAM 00z best it's been so far-snowdepth couple inches.

[D-Money]

up, up and away! 

[wasnow215]

8 minutes ago, D-Money said:

up, up and away! 

Going too fast-can't decipher lol

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Going too fast-can't decipher lol

I took a screen shot - very good!

[Ephesians2]

I just have the feeling this one has high bust potential, especially down here in Central VA. Richmond has a better shot than I do, but personally I would be mildly surprised if I got a coating on the grass. Hopefully we can get at least a transient colder pattern in march. March 2013 and 2014 both had wet snow late into the month. It looks like we will have a milder regime the first week of march, but after that maybe we can reshuffle and get one last shot.

[D-Money]

28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Going too fast-can't decipher lol

It’s the last four runs of the NAM showing the max zones shifting north each run. 
this is where we need to LP to be.

 

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, D-Money said:

It’s the last four runs of the NAM showing the max zones shifting north each run. 
this is where we need to LP to be.

 

But the output for 0z was good

[D-Money]

4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

But the output for 0z was good

Snow maps were better for your area on latest 0z. 
 

snow depth last four runs of Nam. First one was the 6z nuke. Thats the image I had where I circled the LP area. 

[D-Money]

GFS good hit for areas north of the peninsula!

[ldub23]

5 minutes ago, D-Money said:

GFS good hit for areas north of the peninsula!

Better for everyone than 18Z

 

Here  is the  updated Graf futurecast. Still 3.9 NN  2-2.5 southside

 

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/weather/forecast/weather-forecast-hampton-roads-north-carolina-13-news-now/291-624e64cd-4be5-4769-bad4-c5ad49f90954

[D-Money]

15 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Better for everyone than 18Z

 

Here  is the  updated Graf futurecast. Still 3.9 NN  2-2.5 southside

 

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/weather/forecast/weather-forecast-hampton-roads-north-carolina-13-news-now/291-624e64cd-4be5-4769-bad4-c5ad49f90954

[wasnow215]

I'm thinking if we get the rates NAM and GFS showed and it's after dark say from 6p to midnight we could see 5-7" in RVA.

[eaglesin2011]

Or in not in cat & dog equivalent amounts….

0 to 3 in the RVA local area

[ldub23]

Wakefield has storm watches  just  north of  me and just east  of RIC. So close  yet so far away

[ldub23]

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Wakefield has storm watches  just  north of  me and just east  of RIC. So close  yet so far away

Again we're talking about 20 mile difference for moves just a bit more west than the set up happens to get the heavy bands over RVA. That's why the national weather service has the 10% high totals so high lol because they're really not sure and how can they be

[eaglesin2011]

Nah I’d say Wakefield is pretty confident now in the Richmond area that this will be a miss for this area..The surface temps are just to warm here to get a 4+ snow into this area .. Need a heavy band to hit the area before it starts to pull away .. or if it explodes enough early & stalls that we get some wrap around & backfill  bands coming through.. Unfortunately both are long shots for the RIC local area especially west..

[mikeeng92]

Im going with the positive bust. This isnt a typical Miller B waiting for the storm to bomb. Ton of energy dropping in with the ridge out west and the low has already formed in Georgia before moving up the coast. The NAM nailed the January storm , if it can verify like the pics below itll be like day 2 of 2016 without the cold air. Snow will accumulate when your in the heavier bands. Either way it will look epic falling. 

 

[eaglesin2011]

Nam has some nice banding late coming through.. definitely need a stall and early development to get into the warning area into Richmond .

[Deep Creek]

18 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

Im going with the positive bust. This isnt a typical Miller B waiting for the storm to bomb. Ton of energy dropping in with the ridge out west and the low has already formed in Georgia before moving up the coast. The NAM nailed the January storm , if it can verify like the pics below itll be like day 2 of 2016 without the cold air. Snow will accumulate when your in the heavier bands. Either way it will look epic falling. 

 

Don’t tease with Jan 2016 day 2! That band feeding central VA was glorious…both on radar and just watching it fall.

Verbatim, the evolution here does look similar and we need to hope for that closer to the coast low placement. But yea, regardless of what actually accumulates, it would be great to see it.