Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[overcautionisbad]

20 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

This  is from Ross, a Met from RIC area

 

based on history this is typically when we reach our qpf nadir before models bump things up some. atypical storm sure. but if we're going with history this is our bottom

Interesting.

 

One thing to note with social media is Facebook recently ruined their search feature further making it hard to sort your search. Youtube did this too by removing the ability to search by recent upload. X is the only good social media design right now as far as searching for posts about whether. So, wouldn't be surprised if more turn to forums like this. But thing with this forum is complaints of never getting verification email for new accounts. So, might be lots of lurkers from that.

[JB Fins]

Ross Runner, he has been around a while, so hopefully he is correct.  

Funny how we used to rank the TV mets and their snow weenie levels.  Jim Duncan had a snowmobile when he first moved here, loved snow, but always erred on conservative.  John Bernier was the most animated and would come up with great euphemisms like "Falling like lard" for snow rates.  I think he liked all weather because he was just as animated, if not more so, during severe weather season, when we had one.  Mike Goldberg, was doing 6 I think, the same time those guys were on. Much more measured, and a bit conservative also.  They all lived by the EURO, and I think most still do.

[overcautionisbad]

4 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Ross Runner, he has been around a while, so hopefully he is correct.  

Funny how we used to rank the TV mets and their snow weenie levels.  Jim Duncan had a snowmobile when he first moved here, loved snow, but always erred on conservative.  John Bernier was the most animated and would come up with great euphemisms like "Falling like lard" for snow rates.  I think he liked all weather because he was just as animated, if not more so, during severe weather season, when we had one.  Mike Goldberg, was doing 6 I think, the same time those guys were on. Much more measured, and a bit conservative also.  They all lived by the EURO, and I think most still do.

Jim Duncan is always pessimistic with snowstorms because he likes snow I think. John Bernier I never know when he's going to go aggressive or conservative. DT is very rude at times and loves getting poltical, but he's gotten more conservative woth some of his forecasts. He still gets very hyped on mid range models and people mistake some of his discussion for predictions.

 

Doesn't Richmond Times Dispatch have a met? Haven't seen him in a bit

[Sernest14]

Definitely a tough one- euro and sref vs every other model.  Barely touch an inch of snow from everything outside those 2

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Definitely a tough one- euro and sref vs every other model.  Barely touch an inch of snow from everything outside those 2

Well GFS has started bouncing around last few runs. One thing to note is models have been off several degrees on temps. Makes me think cold air will not block out moisture as much as they predict.

[migratingwx]

41 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

I think this sub-sub-forum is genius TBH.  I would actually love a Raleigh-Richmond one.  Im tired of going back and forth.  I mean having Miami or even Atlanta, Ga and Nashville with Raleigh is kind of mind-binding.

I disagree. Richmond's snow climate is quite different from Raleigh's, which is what this board is primarily concerned about and what drives the most traffic here. And yes, there are distinct differences from Hampton Roads, but we already addressed the justification for lumping both metros together into a single thread. Let's not give credence to the Mid-Atlantic posters who already claim this part of the state is the "tropics". 

[migratingwx]

13 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Doesn't Richmond Times Dispatch have a met? Haven't seen him in a bit

I believe he resigned to run for elected office?

[wasnow215]

13 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Definitely a tough one- euro and sref vs every other model.  Barely touch an inch of snow from everything outside those 2

CMC was decent but yeah

[overcautionisbad]

NWS

 

Also, DT still believes Richmond will see accumulation based on the Euro. Calls saying the system is falling apart is trolling.

[mikeeng92]

Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-Eastern
Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including
the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-Western King William-
Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and
Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
113 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, north central,
  south central, and southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin
  is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of freezing
  temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes.

[JB Fins]

It's not unheard of, but James River is frozen in between Belle Isle and Tredegar.  My office has a great view of it.  It's been a while that it has been cold enough for a long enough duration for that to happen.

[chris624wx]

Quote

Diving into the individual models/ensembles, the ECMWF/EPS has 
actually expanded the higher snow amounts across the south and 
southeast compared to some of the previous runs, with a very sharp 
cutoff north (unfortunately right near the Richmond metro). The 
Canadian has also moved a touch north with the ~3-6" amounts, but 
keeps the 6"+ amounts mainly confined to the southeast. Finally, the 
GFS/GEFS has trended south with the highest amounts (especially 
compared to the 00z/29 run), keeping a majority of the 6"+ amounts 
across the far south/southeast and the overall highest amounts just 
south of the CWA across NC. Finally, we are just starting to come 
into range of the CAMs which may provide a bit more clarity this 
evening and tonight. For now, the forecast resembles a blend between 
the previous forecast and the latest model guidance. Overall, snow 
amounts were lowered ~1-2" across the forecast area this afternoon, 
with amounts ranging from 0.5-2" across northwestern portions of the 
forecast area, to ~2-5" through the Richmond metro to the Tri-
Cities, to 4-7" across south central Virginia over to Eastern Shore, 
to 7-12+" across southeast Virginia (Hampton Roads) into northeast 
North Carolina. 

From Wakefield's new AFD

[eaglesin2011]

So basically nothing new. Lol

 

[chris624wx]

Quote

Part 2 of the storm gets amped up later Saturday, and is expected to 
peak Saturday night into early Sunday. The models (even the GFS) are 
all in pretty good agreement that the digging upper trough becomes 
cutoff as it drops SE from the TN Valley (at 12Z/Sat), to the GA-SC 
coastal plain by Saturday evening (00Z/Sun). The resulting low is 
forecast to deepen by as much as 15 mb/6 hr Sat evening as it drifts 
NE off the coast. Therefore, in addition to heavy snowfall, which is 
of highest confidence across SE VA and NE NC, very strong winds are 
likely to develop for coastal areas, with winds rather strong even 
for inland zones. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are 
expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across 
southern/SE VA and NE NC. Added blizzard wording to the Winter Storm 
Watch for portions of Hampton Roads and coastal northeast North 
Carolina and Blizzard Warning may likely be needed for these 
locations. Winds may gust to 50-60 mph along the coast Saturday 
night into Sunday.

They also mention they may issue Blizzard Warnings in Southside HR/ NE NC

[jlewis1111]

[jlewis1111]

Chesterfield dry as a bone

[ldub23]

Just now, jlewis1111 said:

Chesterfield dry as a bone

For  now, but it trended  NW

[chris624wx]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

18z NAM had it snowing through 21z Sunday for HR

[jlewis1111]

Yup def a beach storm kitty hawk up to you guys.. Congrats

[DJnVa]

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

 

Hey man don't see you on here much but welcome! We have a good amount of people who mention the area they live in if you read through. And then you can just tap to see where they live and I really think they do a good job mentioning both areas

 

Oh, I get it! But it's like whiplash when a model comes out and one guy is "BULLSEYE!!" and the next is "Oh no!!! We lost it!!"

Not complaining, just a cool little quirk of this thread.

[CentralVaGirl]

1 hour ago, overcautionisbad said:

Jim Duncan is always pessimistic with snowstorms because he likes snow I think. John Bernier I never know when he's going to go aggressive or conservative. DT is very rude at times and loves getting poltical, but he's gotten more conservative woth some of his forecasts. He still gets very hyped on mid range models and people mistake some of his discussion for predictions.

 

Doesn't Richmond Times Dispatch have a met? Haven't seen him in a bit

Sean Sublette was laid off by the paper quite a while ago. He has a consulting business now. He also does a Substack post and sends weather emails a couple of times a week. He did explore running for office but dropped out of a crowded field. I like his email and posts. 

[Stormpc]

40 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

For  now, but it trended  NW

So far most all 18Z have trended NW. Not a huge jump but maybe the NW trend has begun. It should be subtle thru tomorrow 12z. But hope its there. 

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

So far most all 18Z have trended NW. Not a huge jump but maybe the NW trend has begun. It should be subtle thru tomorrow 12z. But hope its there. 

And the low is stronger

[ldub23]

By 12Z Saturday, most guidance is in agreement that the 500mb
shortwave takes on a more neutral tilt (oriented N-S) over the TN
Valley and becomes a closed low over GA. PVA becomes maximized
over the Southeast while a surface low spawns along a coastal
front east of the Carolinas. As the 850mb low deepens over northern
GA and heads east into SC, easterly 850mb theta-e advection will
direct low-level moisture around the 850mb low and support a band
of moderate-to-heavy snow from northern GA to central SC. Farther
north, the same tongue of 850mb theta-e is funneling along the
850mb front to the north of the 850mb low track from northern SC
on east through the heart of NC. This is where the deformation zone
is likely to form, pivoting over central NC and northern SC with
1-2"/hr snowfall rates likely. This band of heavy snow is likely to
ensue farther east into southeast VA, where 700mb FGEN is more
ideally placed to support strong vertical velocities within a fully
saturated DGZ. Similar to NC, look for intense bands of heavy snow
over southeast VA to form late Saturday afternoon and persist into
Saturday night. These bands of heavy snow in eastern NC and
southeast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates >6.5C/km Saturday
afternoon and evening. It is here where not only are 2"/hr snowfall
rates achievable, but so is the likelihood for thundersnow. The
intense vertical velocities in eastern NC and southeast VA may
result in some subsidence in north-central NC and south-central VA.
Snowfall is still likely to reach warning criteria, but these
regions are potentially susceptible to lesser snowfall amounts as
they are caught between the influence of the strong upper-low to
the south, and the strengthening coastal low.

 

WPC

[Stormpc]

"These bands of heavy snow in eastern NC and
southeast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates >6.5C/km Saturday
afternoon and evening. It is here where not only are 2"/hr snowfall
rates achievable, but so is the likelihood for thundersnow. The
intense vertical velocities in eastern NC and southeast VA may...."

[chris624wx]

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

By 12Z Saturday, most guidance is in agreement that the 500mb
shortwave takes on a more neutral tilt (oriented N-S) over the TN
Valley and becomes a closed low over GA. PVA becomes maximized
over the Southeast while a surface low spawns along a coastal
front east of the Carolinas. As the 850mb low deepens over northern
GA and heads east into SC, easterly 850mb theta-e advection will
direct low-level moisture around the 850mb low and support a band
of moderate-to-heavy snow from northern GA to central SC. Farther
north, the same tongue of 850mb theta-e is funneling along the
850mb front to the north of the 850mb low track from northern SC
on east through the heart of NC. This is where the deformation zone
is likely to form, pivoting over central NC and northern SC with
1-2"/hr snowfall rates likely. This band of heavy snow is likely to
ensue farther east into southeast VA, where 700mb FGEN is more
ideally placed to support strong vertical velocities within a fully
saturated DGZ. Similar to NC, look for intense bands of heavy snow
over southeast VA to form late Saturday afternoon and persist into
Saturday night. These bands of heavy snow in eastern NC and
southeast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates >6.5C/km Saturday
afternoon and evening. It is here where not only are 2"/hr snowfall
rates achievable, but so is the likelihood for thundersnow. The
intense vertical velocities in eastern NC and southeast VA may
result in some subsidence in north-central NC and south-central VA.
Snowfall is still likely to reach warning criteria, but these
regions are potentially susceptible to lesser snowfall amounts as
they are caught between the influence of the strong upper-low to
the south, and the strengthening coastal low.

 

WPC

I've never seen thundersnow. I would die if that were to happen with this storm!

[ldub23]

They are rather  bullish for SEVA

[JB Fins]

ENJOY!  If I were single, I would be booking a rental in OBX and hang out at Lucky 12 or maybe Goombay's (more windows) until the kicked me out or lost power, whichever came first.  Oh shoot, Black Pelican, wall of windows and a fireplace at the bar.

[ldub23]

icon ensemble  would see 4-5 in RIC

[jlewis1111]

I dont see anything trending nw on 18z models... What am I missing here??