Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[jlewis1111]

nam is horrible

[RVASnowLover]

ICON not bad for southern VA. Big hit for ORF and VB

[ldub23]

SREF has slightly  more  moisture and the  Nam was an improvement at  least. I would say so far things are on an edgy upswing  so far.

[Ephesians2]

RGEM trending in the wrong direction.  Drier, more progressive.  

[RVASnowLover]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

RGEM trending in the wrong direction.  Drier, more progressive.  

Yeah so far the trend this suite for RIC is drier. 

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

RGEM trending in the wrong direction.  Drier, more progressive.  

This is what I was saying about the early morning models 6Z… Nothing had snow literally or very little snow that I saw except for the European. Let's see what the GFS does this time. It would be the European against the world for RVA unless the Canadian has something

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Yeah so far the trend this suite for RIC is drier. 

Same as 6z

[ldub23]

I  personally think it  gets  better from here. ICON  has a  perfect  low  placement, just  not alot  of moisture

[wasnow215]

22 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

This seems very sensible. DTs first call appears on track.

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I just see his "First Guess" which is very aggressive. Did he put out a "first call" now?

[ldub23]

RRFS  looks good

 

 

Hit that damn little  box twice, lol

[eaglesin2011]

This is definitely going to be a nowcast storm for the Richmond area for sure.. It’s going to be that close between almost nothing to something very significant… To me the models still haven’t figured out where the dry air is going to go and how much suppression of the storm will happen,   its why we are getting the wild swings in amounts in many places.. I still think 3-7 is a great call for the RVA area..

 

[mikeeng92]

Just now, eaglesin2011 said:

This is definitely going to be a nowcast storm for the Richmond area for sure.. It’s going to be that close between almost nothing to something very significant… To me the models still haven’t figured out where the dry air is going to go and how much suppression of the storm will happen,   its why we are getting the wild swings in amounts in many places.. I still think 3-7 is a great call for the RVA area..

 

Yea, one band could set up and move through dropping 2-4"

[wasnow215]

So did DT come out with a first call map? because I just see his first guest map which seems ridiculous to me

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

So did DT come out with a first call map? because I just see his first guest map which seems ridiculous to me

Might not be that bad. No first call yet

[Ephesians2]

At 36h the GFS is a tick west at 500mb. If the CAMs are right about this second Bermuda low it won't matter. But worth noting

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Might not be that bad. No first call yet

I would love it but has decent amount of snow into DC

[eaglesin2011]

Not sure why he is being blasted (hell it may end up being even more in some of the places north of here if the right things come together  

Its not even his final call .. <—- having more then one call to begin with is ridiculous imo…  but anyway moving on…

 

 

[Ephesians2]

Yeah we have three different surface lows on the GFS. Really weird depiction that robs a lot of moisture.  

Despite a bit of improvement at 500mb its going to be about the same as 06z with respect to snow

4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

At 36h the GFS is a tick west at 500mb. If the CAMs are right about this second Bermuda low it won't matter. But worth noting

 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Not sure why he is being blasted (hell it may end up being even more in some of the places north of here if the right things come together  

Its not even his final call .. <—- having more then one call to begin with is ridiculous imo…  but anyway moving on…

 

 

That I agree with. Just his first guess

[wasnow215]

GFS not good for RVA-Meh for all of Va really

 

Euro against all the globals pretty much and most of the mesos.

[mikeeng92]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

GFS not good for RVA-Meh for all of Va really

 

Euro against all the globals pretty much and most of the mesos.

979 mb low off OBX and little precip

[RVASnowLover]

GFS dry for RIC as well. Not good trends at all. 

[ldub23]

12 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

979 mb low off OBX and little precip

Again, perfect  low  placement. Things will get  better.

[wasnow215]

Well finally a global with snow for here! Lol

12z CMC looks very much like 6z Euro.

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

Again, perfect  low  placement. Things will get  better.

I appreciate your outlook man. It helps me have hope!

[eaglesin2011]

What allot of  people don’t understand is just a 2-4 inch snow is going to cause allot of issues just because the snow that is on the ground from the plows is almost impossible to move in some places.. just that is going to be a major hassle 

[JB Fins]

Whatever we get, yes, will be snow on snow, no waiting for most roads or lawns to cave.  You won't have the inevitable watch the mulch go white, okay, now the grass, then driveway and roads.  This stuff will stick, so, hopefully, will pile up quick.

[Berlin1926]

Whatever we get, yes, will be snow on snow, no waiting for most roads or lawns to cave.  You won't have the inevitable watch the mulch go white, okay, now the grass, then driveway and roads.  This stuff will stick, so, hopefully, will pile up quick.

With rates of 18:1 yes. Plus 40 MPH gusts.

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[D-Money]

Chances for a major winter storm on the southside seem to be diminishing. For us to see a good storm we need it to travel NE along the coast so we can have that banding set up over top us. With out that, we will be battling dry air that is being pumped in from the high. UKMET shows a possible solution. I can’t remember the year, maybe 07-09 we had similar ULLs moving to the south of us and models and local Mets were calling for 4-6 inches or 4-8 inches for the southside a day before the event. There may have been two storms rather close to each other. One got some flurries in to the southside and the other one was partly cloudy here. Both cases NE and eastern NC received measurable snow. The lows basically were kicked east out to sea allowing dry air to win. Rooting for the low to develop just off the coast and move NE so we can score. Hate to waste the cold and not get a good one. We’ll see what happens the rest of the day as the new runs come in. 

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, D-Money said:

Chances for a major winter storm on the southside seem to be diminishing. For us to see a good storm we need it to travel NE along the coast so we can have that banding set up over top us. With out that, we will be battling dry air that is being pumped in from the high. UKMET shows a possible solution. I can’t remember the year, maybe 07-09 we had similar ULLs moving to the south of us and models and local Mets were calling for 4-6 inches or 4-8 inches for the southside a day before the event. There may have been two storms rather close to each other. One got some flurries in to the southside and the other one was partly cloudy here. Both cases NE and eastern NC received measurable snow. The lows basically were kicked east out to sea allowing dry air to win. Rooting for the low to develop just off the coast and move NE so we can score. Hate to waste the cold and not get a good one. We’ll see what happens the rest of the day as the new runs come in. 

Nothing more miserable than cold with no payoff