Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[JB Fins]

17 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

GEFS was great FWIW 

Yes, looks like the bleeding may have stopped.  Just a tick south.

Fingers crossed for a trend or at least locking in.

Just don’t want a PDII redux as I have those vibes, we only ended up with 3-5”’of concrete.

 

[mikeeng92]

5 hours ago, RVASnowLover said:

AI EURO still looks great so there’s that 

Huge to have this model still look good. 
 

 

[RVASnowLover]

We’ll see what models show today but as of now, snow to ice seems likely for RIC.  Question is how much snow before the changeover 

6z euro looks south but it’s still snow to ice 

[jlewis1111]

12z models today has always been the real time to start looking at the storm. Lets hope things trend back south but doubt it

[jlewis1111]

11 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

We’ll see what models show today but as of now, snow to ice seems likely for RIC.  Question is how much snow before the changeover 

6z euro looks south but it’s still snow to ice 

yup euro went from 20 here in midlo to now 5 not good

[Ephesians2]

Hugging the GEFS... 

[RVASnowLover]

33 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

12z models today has always been the real time to start looking at the storm. Lets hope things trend back south but doubt it

Hopefully we see some positive trends today. 

[Hyphnx]

21 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Hopefully we see some positive trends today. 

Looking like Ice might be on the table at 12z

[RVASnowLover]

6 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

Looking like Ice might be on the table at 12z

At this point i definitely think we get some ice. Question is how much snow before the changeover? Euro is by far the most amped solution. Will it adjust any at 12z? 

[Conway7305]

6z Euro ticked south a hair 

[Conway7305]

Good Read

https://x.com/_jwall/status/2013924395425624230?s=46

[Conway7305]

Stronger High Pressure over Montana (1039) has positive downstream effects on 6z Euro. See a small shift south from 0z. Bleeding hopefully has stopped maybe a trend south again?  

[RVASnowLover]

8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Good Read

https://x.com/_jwall/status/2013924395425624230?s=46

If we’re going to see a south shift it needs to happen soon. 

[nw baltimore wx]

22 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

If we’re going to see a south shift it needs to happen soon. 

You all probably saw this in the main thread last night, but it was reputably posted that recon flights over the Pacific will be putting in data to tonight's 0z runs.  

[RVASnowLover]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You all probably saw this in the main thread last night, but it was reputably posted that recon flights over the Pacific will be putting in data to tonight's 0z runs.  

Thanks! Models will then start to have a better handle of the setup. Still hoping for some improvements at 12z. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said:

Thanks! Models will then start to have a better handle of the setup. Still hoping for some improvements at 12z. 

It sounds like they should, but it also sounds like the northern stream data may not be as well sampled until the arctic high gets over the conus later tomorrow.  I could be entirely wrong about that, but reading that WPC statement tells me that it's too early to throw in the towel.

[eaglesin2011]

Let’s hope that South trend continues.. I’m going out to get a generator today (if they aren’t already gone) just in case… Unfortunately where I am the power lines are not buried underground so good chance the power goes out even if it’s just a big snow

[RVASnowLover]

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It sounds like they should, but it also sounds like the northern stream data may not be as well sampled until the arctic high gets over the conus later tomorrow.  I could be entirely wrong about that, but reading that WPC statement tells me that it's too early to throw in the towel.

I read where they are a little skeptical of this north trend and are waiting to see if models trend south today

[JB Fins]

Yeah, I have no scientific, or otherwise, evidence to support this, other than memory for tracking this stuff since days back on Eastern, but have a feeling that the northern shift occurring early, works in our favor.  

Again, always know that RVA in the bullseye should be scrutinized heavily unless it is 48 hours out.  But, typically we are in the bullseye for longer before the inevitable north shift occurs closer to the onset.  This time the northern shift feels early, so gut tells me, expect some shift south, not RVA jack, but enough to push that ice threat down south some more. 

Total weenie post, so I did it for ya. 

[Dick_LeBoof]

06Z GEFS run. 

Looking like still a decent spread in possibilities of where the coastal low sets up.  There's still a good amount of southern members, so I'm not panicking yet.  

My question is are the models underestimating the CAD that will be in-place by the time the system rolls in.  The low-temp this morning in RVA was a few degrees colder than forecasted.  Hoping the CAD will be deeper than the models are showing. 

GEFS Ensemble Pressure Centers

[SoCoWx]

Yeah, I have no scientific, or otherwise, evidence to support this, other than memory for tracking this stuff since days back on Eastern, but have a feeling that the northern shift occurring early, works in our favor.  
Again, always know that RVA in the bullseye should be scrutinized heavily unless it is 48 hours out.  But, typically we are in the bullseye for longer before the inevitable north shift occurs closer to the onset.  This time the northern shift feels early, so gut tells me, expect some shift south, not RVA jack, but enough to push that ice threat down south some more. 
Total weenie post, so I did it for ya. 

Listen, if we can manage 10 inches and some sleet on top, we’re golden.

I feel genuinely bad for whoever gets it, but that ice storm ish can stay the f*** away.

Especially after ice knocked out the city’s water infrastructure last January.


.

[Ephesians2]

22 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

I read where they are a little skeptical of this north trend and are waiting to see if models trend south today

The optimistic / wish casting perspective is that since the storm needs essentially a perfect phase out west to get that far north, there's a lot of scenarios where something interferes with it.

It doesn't seem like this is exactly the same as the north trend that we generally get with big storms due to underestimation of the mix line and the northern extent of the precip. Of course on the other hand, that means that we could get another north trend tomorrow/Friday if last night's euro is right about the upper level pattern.

[Conway7305]

NAM is way too warm.  Hopefully that will correct in time 

[wasnow215]

15 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

NAM is way too warm.  Hopefully that will correct in time 

Not a weenie statement but very real. The only NAM worth anything is 3K within 36 hours of an event. 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Let’s hope that South trend continues.. I’m going out to get a generator today (if they aren’t already gone) just in case… Unfortunately where I am the power lines are not buried underground so good chance the power goes out even if it’s just a big snow

Also for those who can't get a generator/don't currently have one. Make sure vehicles are filled with fuel/charged, so can stay warm in vehicles with extreme cold.

[Conway7305]

ICON is snow to ice.  Not really putting much faith in th model.  It’s all over the place and usually corrects to euro or gfs

[RVASnowLover]

ICON won't be making any friends. Verbatim about 1-3" before the changeover. It is the ICON however

[Hyphnx]

Talk about losing a storm.

[jlewis1111]

Thats what happens when there is so much hype with 5-6 days before the storm is supposed to hit. Usually It goes sideways

[RVASnowLover]

Not folding in the towel just yet but a potential waste of cold air. Surface temps in the teens but get ice.