SolidIcewx Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 47 minutes ago, Lightning said: Many will do great I am sure. I am not calling this a bust as in fact your area should do well. This type/timing of development and storm path normal leads to the line coming across the state. The heavier cells aim for MBY will split around Howell or westward. Send a piece to Fenton (just to my north) and another toward Brighton. I'll get some rains and hear a bunch of thunder. Then as it moves eastto the east as it explodes over Highland. Sure it doesn't always do that but ~75% it does with systems this storm path. We shall see! Looking good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, andyhb said: Holy hell… Strong strong tornado right there. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Quote MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2023 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374...379...381... VALID 252147Z - 252345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 374, 379, 381 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 374, 379, AND 381. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE AT 2140Z SHOWS SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME NORTHWEST KY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA, WITH A HISTORY OF VERY LARGE HAIL. OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS, THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WITH AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. RAP-BASED STP VALUES OF 6 TO LOCALLY 8 ARE FORECAST IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA, SUPPORTING AN INCREASED TORNADO RISK FOR SUPERCELLS REMAINING DISCRETE WHILE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..BUNTING.. 06/25/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 I will say down in Southern IN the dynamics are overlaying each other far better than up this way. The best shear and helicity is behind the line making its way thru Michigan and Ohio right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Convective overturning earlier looks to have stabilized the low levels towards Louisville. Might be done for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 cincinnati bust https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/23062520_OBS/ ILN 20Z balloon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 It’s arriving imby I’ll try to get some good pictures hopefully nice shelf structure edit: winds out ahead of the storm blowing right into it so far. Can see the rain line outflow should be next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: It’s arriving imby I’ll try to get some good pictures hopefully nice shelf structure Your golden!! That cell developed and to my west and went right to Fenton!! Completely predictable. Brighton the next target!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Nasty-looking bow echo. Will track right through the city if it holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Nasty-looking bow echo. Will track right through the city if it holds... Looking at it now the skies are brighter then I thought they would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Just now, SolidIcewx said: That's not a bad-looking (as in it's ok) shelf cloud at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 FWIW, the special 20z DTX sounding had an impressive Inverted-V look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, Powerball said: FWIW, the special 20z DTX sounding had an impressive Inverted-V look. Initial 50 mph gust and has been a constant 40 plus here past 10 mins edit: definitely a nice windstorm without knocking down lines here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Solid hit here but you can tell the environment just didn’t align today. It looked like we had a small moment of 60 mph winds but other than that nothing too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Solid hit here but you can tell the environment just didn’t align today. It looked like we had a small moment of 60 mph winds but other than that nothing too bad Well, guys, at long last, it actually rained like a real thunderstorm. I got a shelf cloud, (will post pictures if you guys want.) visible changing motions in the cloud, lightning and thunder. I saw a bit of lightning, and tried to video it, but that might not have worked. I just got a rain rate of 1" per hour with 30mph gusts and constant rumbles. Some utility poles down in Toledo, as what might be considered low-end wind damage. I saw a couple of pea sized hailstones on the porch, but hailstones were not easy to see anywhere else. 53mph at Toledo 61mph at Detroit Metro just now, some more thunder, must be nearby lightning and the rain picked up Quote KTOL 252152Z 27026G45KT 1SM R25/P6000FT +TSRA FEW043 SCT050 BKN060 21/17 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 28046/2142 WSHFT 2138 VIS 1/2V5 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB45 TSB44 PRESRR SLP049 P0002 T02060167 $ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Chinook said: Well, guys, at long last, it actually rained like a real thunderstorm. I got a shelf cloud, (will post pictures if you guys want.) visible changing motions in the cloud, lightning and thunder. I saw a bit of lightning, and tried to video it, but that might not have worked. I just got a rain rate of 1" per hour with 30mph gusts and constant rumbles. Some utility poles down in Toledo, as what might be considered low-end wind damage. I saw a couple of pea sized hailstones on the porch, but hailstones were not easy to see anywhere else. 53mph at Toledo 61mph at Detroit Metro just now, some more thunder, must be nearby lightning and the rain picked up Yeah, definitely a solid event for that area (beggara can't be choosers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Still some juice left it looks like. Curious now about the storms on the MI/OH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Only got 0.15", so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 last 3 hours of reports (including sub-severe reports like 40mph wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 It appears that this storm may have produced a significant tornado that was never confirmed in the warning. A friend on FB just posted that their Aunt and Uncle's house was hit in Shoals. Unfortunately the uncle passed and aunt was life flighted for medical attention. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 birds like shelf clouds too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 damaging storm in Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 30 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: It appears that this storm may have produced a significant tornado that was never confirmed in the warning. A friend on FB just posted that their Aunt and Uncle's house was hit in Shoals. Unfortunately the uncle passed and aunt was life flighted foe medical attention. Is there any more information from this one? That tornado appeared to be strong-violent based on the intensity of the mesocyclone and the height of the TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: Is there any more information from this one? That tornado appeared to be strong-violent based on the intensity of the mesocyclone and the height of the TDS. Unfortunately I don't have any at this time. I reached out but haven't heard back. Did the warning ever say confirmed damaging tornado? The radar and velocity presentation was exceptional and supportive of a strong to violent tornado like you suggested. I haven't seen any pics or video of a tornado or damage from this storm yet. I will let you know if I hear anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 That was a hell of a signature from LVX when it was passing south of Shoals. The damage out there is probably significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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