stadiumwave Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 On 12/1/2023 at 4:11 PM, griteater said: Good to see you in these threads Don. Yeah, I saw that about the NOAA PV Blog. I thought Judah Cohen's PV blog was a good one this week (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/). He mentioned that Canadian Warmings are often followed by PV stretching and cold outbreaks (even though at the time, the models weren't showing the PV stretching)...but sure enough, the models have come around to that a bit in the strat, just not showing much AK ridging in the trop...but that could change in time (I think it will). This is an Op run (GFS), but it shows the potential strat progression which could aid a cold outbreak Interestingly, something similar occurred at the end of October. I'd look it up but ESRL is down at the moment. Obviously the implications are greater now than then...just thought it was interesting that it's a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Interestingly, something similar occurred at the end of October. I'd look it up but ESRL is down at the moment. Obviously the implications are greater now than then...just thought it was interesting that it's a repeat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I must have missed this post...interesting take. I have initial reservations about next winter due to the fact that solar should be descending by then, but maybe we stave that off another year. Plenty of time to ponder that. I'm thinking the winters of 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29 will be the most problematic for -NAO from a solar geomag standpoint. Of course, the timing could change a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 4 hours ago, griteater said: I'm thinking the winters of 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29 will be the most problematic for -NAO from a solar geomag standpoint. Of course, the timing could change a little Agree...we could sneak one more in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 18 hours ago, griteater said: I'm thinking the winters of 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29 will be the most problematic for -NAO from a solar geomag standpoint. Of course, the timing could change a little Where did you pull these graphics from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where did you pull these graphics from? https://www.nasa.gov/solar-cycle-progression-and-forecast/ Problem is, I don't see anywhere on the web where they have these geomag plots going way back in time (they do have them for solar cycles - sunspots), but you can get geomag data (Ap) back to 1932 here: https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_Ap_SN_F107_since_1932.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Dec 5 - My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern with Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic focus... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Euro Seasonal Update DEC JAN FEB MAR 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Euro Seasonal Update DEC JAN FEB MAR Looks even better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 ^ No shortage of ridging in W Canada. Impressive showing from the Euro Seasonal for the E U.S. Here is JFM precip... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Here's the weenie version of the RMM...slow trek thru 8-1-2. This is titled 'Total'. It is the regular MJO plot, but 'retaining the interannual 120-day signal'....so, the MJO atop the El Nino signal. Sounds logical to me, but I haven't used it / seen how it performs / biases etc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Tonight's GEFS Ext for Jan 3-Jan 10. Very tasty if true 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Was noticing that Phase 3 in Jan & Feb are both good during El Nino per Allan Huffman's composites when you use the one for all MJO amplitudes. For >1 amplitude, they are not as good. But P3 could help us some in January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Looks like a flooded source region and low quality cold airmasses. Very typical/canonical +ENSO/+IOD. The kind of crap where you need extra help from timing even with favorable tracks. Would probably shift that forward a couple of weeks. Mid-Jan to late Feb? Would give time for the Pacific Jet to chill the fuck out or the GoA low to retrograde a bit and get some recharge up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 Natural gas down to $2.46. ya'll doubted me, but here comes the +EPO/+NAO pattern, at least for some time.. There are methods that do work better, but it's one thing to keep in mind as the correlation is very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Dec 11 - Thoughts on the upcoming pattern with Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic focus... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 9 hours ago, griteater said: Dec 11 - Thoughts on the upcoming pattern with Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic focus... Sure looking that way right now. Terrible for Winter wx enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 On 12/10/2023 at 7:57 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Natural gas down to $2.46. ya'll doubted me, but here comes the +EPO/+NAO pattern, at least for some time.. There are methods that do work better, but it's one thing to keep in mind as the correlation is very strong. If you are referring to the seasonal mean, then I still doubt you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 12, 2023 Author Share Posted December 12, 2023 I'm thinking we have a strong ongoing trend in February with a +150dm mean/average Aleutian high (-PNA) for the last 6 Winter's. It has exceeded the correlation for ENSO at 1.8/1. If I had to make a guess, it would be that January is cooler and February is warmer, although we have the chance of having a big -NAO/-AO in February, because of Strong El nino/Strong -QBO impact on the Stratosphere. I think if Feb is -PNA in this 7th year it will likely happen together with -NAO.. or, if the downwelling Stratosphere warming becomes a -NAO, the Pacific at +EPO/-PNA will correlate, because that's what's been happening lately. Of course, the El Nino is +2.1c so that could rule the pattern, but we are not seeing this so far and Natural Gas is near record low when compared to Oil or Gas, usually a warm Winter, or +NAO, signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 With December being the 3rd warmest population-weighted Dec on record, it got me once again testing the Natural Gas thesis. This takes out a lot of borderline years, and just calculates the absolute highest and lowest since 1995: (map default is low NG price (vs high)) https://ibb.co/dfwzcWm As you can see, the Pacific looks a lot like what we have seen, or will see, in Dec 2023. The biggest difference is the +NAO (-50dm) as the strongest global signal, somewhat conflicting a 10-day -NAO period in early Dec. A lot of people say that there is correlation to the early Dec -NAO and the rest of the Winter, but I think sustainability this year could be hard. With a big Stratosphere warming projected, that factor may definitely give us some -NAO, but I don't see a strong -NAO lasting through the Winter, if anything it may average around neutral, going back and forth between negative and positive until March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 Historically, the Dec +EPO pattern carries to Jan-March. These are the top 30 analogs to December pattern: December 30 analogs https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Roll-forward January https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC Roll-forward February https://ibb.co/QnqH2wn Roll-forward March https://ibb.co/QDv0GWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Historically, the Dec +EPO pattern carries to Jan-March. These are the top 30 analogs to December pattern: December 30 analogs https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Roll-forward January https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC Roll-forward February https://ibb.co/QnqH2wn Roll-forward March https://ibb.co/QDv0GWG If that proves correct then we are in real big trouble this winter. A +EPO is going to flood our source region with PAC air. You also said you are getting a signal for a largely +NAO…another real bad sign….not that a -NAO/-AO would help anyway in the face of a possible +EPO winter 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 This December will be a 2SD +EPO. As per CDC monthly correlation composites, The EPO has a 0.3 correlation from December to January and February. Gives us about a 60% of happening imo, just based on that one variable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: If that proves correct then we are in real big trouble this winter. A +EPO is going to flood our source region with PAC air. You also said you are getting a signal for a largely +NAO…another real bad sign….not that a -NAO/-AO would help anyway in the face of a possible +EPO winter He didn't say largely positive NAO....be said back and forth averaging around neutral, which I agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 EPO can average +DM and still yield fine periods....going to wager that much of February its negative. Considering how decidedly positive it has been this month, averaging positive for DM will not be a tall task and doesn't mean that there will not be negative stretches from here on out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 If this verifies, it's pretty hard for me to see any area of the northern US verifying cold, or even near average for Dec-Feb. Well...Alaska. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 On 12/18/2023 at 10:06 PM, raindancewx said: If this verifies, it's pretty hard for me to see any area of the northern US verifying cold, or even near average for Dec-Feb. Well...Alaska. ! agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Aside from forecast verification purposes, it really doesn't matter how heavily the early season warmth skews the seasonal mean positive.....as long as its seasonal and active for January-February. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 I post this here too: I once again used that December will be a +2SD +EPO (dominate trough over Alaska) to roll forward to January, and again see that the very warm conditions usually continue. Dec Analogs: https://ibb.co/TTnjcDS Dec Temp map: https://ibb.co/cxjrYFz Jan roll forward 500mb pattern: https://ibb.co/rdsYCpF Jan roll forward US Temp map: https://ibb.co/zbqBKKL These roll forward means are giving us a baseline +2 to +4 Jan to work with. Not saying it will absolutely happen, but the signal is pretty strong. It's an anomalous event, this +EPO Dec. This too: This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January: Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC Modeled Stratosphere warming is a variable that could make these bust, moreso late in the month January, as that supports more -NAO conditions. Something that has happened lately is, -NAO's have correlated with -PNA/+EPO and visa-versa, the correlation has been strong since 2019 (0.40>), since 2013 (>0.30) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 Natural Gas at $2.40, when Gasoline is >$3 is a warm Winter signal. It was low in 2015 at this time though, but not compared to CL. 2011 is a pretty good NG-CL match. https://ibb.co/3sDYdPF I wonder what the energy mets are forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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