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Severe Weather 4-2-23/4-3-23


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SPC with the slight risk for N TX

 

 
Targeting west of DFW tomorrow PM sleeper tornado setup
 
 
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day2otlk_1730.gifday2probotlk_1730_torn.gif

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
   ACROSS NORTH TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Occasional large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a couple of
   tornadoes will be possible during the day tomorrow, mainly across
   north Texas.

   ...North TX and vicinity through the day...
   In the wake of a pronounced midlevel trough now moving over the OH
   Valley/lower Great Lakes, a front will stall along the Gulf coast. 
   Upstream, a shortwave trough now near northern Baja will progress
   eastward to the southern Plains tomorrow afternoon.  In response to
   the approach of this trough and increasing westerly flow across the
   Rockies, lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains will
   result in strengthening southerly low-level flow and northward
   moisture advection during the day across TX.  The increasing
   low-level moisture beneath the eastward extent of a elevated mixed
   layer plume will support substantial destabilization during the day
   across north TX.

   Clusters of mainly elevated storms are probable during the day in
   the zone of stronger low-level warm advection across northwest TX
   into southern OK, with sufficient MUCAPE/lapse rates for occasional
   large hail.  Farther south, there will be a few hour window of
   opportunity for supercells rooted near or at the surface within the
   southern fringe of the stronger forcing for ascent, close to the
   surface warm front around mid afternoon.  Mid-upper 60s
   boundary-layer dewpoints and surface heating in cloud breaks and
   midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will drive MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg
   along the warm front, with sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph
   length and low-level shear/hodograph curvature for supercells with
   all hazards.  These threats will be focused along the warm front
   from about 20-00z, with the threat for surface-based supercells
   diminishing during the evening with passage of the midlevel trough. 
   Otherwise, clusters of slightly elevated storms will spread eastward
   toward northwest LA/southwest AR and slowly weaken early tomorrow
   night.
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Some strong wording from FWD

 

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
808 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Sunday Night/

Another nice evening is in store for North and Central Texas, but
this will quickly change by early Sunday morning as a potent upper
level disturbance approaches, bringing an increasing threat for
severe thunderstorms. The rest of tonight will be quiet with
passing clouds and temperatures falling into the 50s.

A stalled frontal boundary across South Texas will begin to lift
northward overnight in response to pressure falls in the Plains
ahead of the aforementioned upper disturbance. The disturbance is
currently located across southwest Arizona and will spread into
West Texas Sunday morning. Ahead of the shortwave, a surge of
Gulf moisture will overspread North Texas by midday with dewpoints
climbing into the mid 60s. Strong low/mid level warm advection
should lead to a blossoming of elevated convection late Sunday
morning into early afternoon mainly off to our northwest. Very
steep mid level lapse rates should support a severe hail risk with
this initial activity. As we get into the afternoon hours though,
a well defined warm sector will become established across much of
North Texas, characterized by strong instability (MLCAPE around
2000 J/kg) and deep layer shear. The timing of the shortwave will
be optimal as well, with the strongest synoptic forcing for ascent
overspreading North Texas during the mid afternoon to early
evening hours. This should yield a window (~between 4-8 pm) where
some potentially significant severe weather could occur across
parts of the region.

Most of the high resolution guidance is in decent agreement with
the initial elevated convection developing off to the northwest
then moving east into the early afternoon. During the afternoon,
there is an increasing potential for more discrete surface based
convection to develop across North Texas within the warm sector.
This activity should be forced at least partially by an eastward
surging dryline. The dryline should impinge on our western
counties during the mid afternoon hours and there is solid
agreement among the guidance that there will be a decent bulge on
the leading edge (Eastland/Stephens Counties) in response to a
band of stronger low/mid level westerly winds. In addition, the
lee side surface low never really ejects eastward, and remains
nearly stationary across southwest Kansas and the OK panhandle.
This results in the near surface flow across parts of North Texas
remaining backed longer than would normally be the case with a
rapidly moving system. Surface based storms appear most likely
from mid afternoon into the early evening hours and would likely
quickly become supercells given the favorable parameter space.
While large hail and damaging winds will certainly be possible,
there also appears to be an increasing threat for tornadoes,
particularly in an area from Mineral Wells to Fort Worth to
Hillsboro to Stephenville. This area east of the dryline bulge
appears to have the best combination of strong instability,
increasing deep layer shear, increasing synoptic forcing for
ascent, and is most likely to maintain a favorable low level wind
profile. It also appears to be the area least likely to have
favorable warm sector air disrupted by elevated convection.
Forecast soundings between 22-00Z show an uncapped thermal profile
with strengthening low level flow and increasingly curved
hodographs into the evening hours. 0-1 km helicity increases to
around 300 m2/s2 and the significant tornado parameter peaks
between 3-6 to the southwest of the Metroplex by 6 pm. This
favorable low level instability and shear profile suggests that
the threat for tornadoes will increase, particularly with any
discrete storms that track from west to east or slightly south of
east where they can maintain a healthy ingestion of streamwise
vorticity. We`ll continue to monitor this threat closely, but
anyone with outside interests should closely pay attention for
rapidly changing weather on Sunday.
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7 minutes ago, radarman said:

latest HRRR is eye opening... 3km nam not quite as bullish.  Really the only question mark is the strength of the LLJ.

April 2nd is a notorious day for severe weather in Dallas.

To some extent of course, the amount of daytime heating will be a question mark as well.

Stronger heating (thus greater surface instability) can make up for a somewhat underwhelming LLJ.

That said, the satellite is showing quite a bit of cloud cover this morning.

.

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23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

To some extent of course, the amount of daytime heating will be a question mark as well.

Stronger heating (thus greater surface instability) can make up for a somewhat underwhelming LLJ.

That said, the satellite is showing quite a bit of cloud cover this morning.

.

Pretty much full blast sun out in Collin Ct now

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This one was a bit of a surprise as I thought maybe nothing would happen before the next large low pressure system. Things seem reasonably favorable for tornadoes. Some areas could be above 200m2/s2 of storm relative helicity (0-3km). Actually the NAM has up to 400 m2/s2 by the late day! The HRRR has some discrete storms and also a cluster of storms near/south of Fort Worth.

 

refcmp_uh001hus_sc1a.png

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CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
VALID 021822Z - 022015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS MAY DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX, INTO
SOUTHERN OK. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO COVER THE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SHOWED
A WELL-DEVELOPED, COMPACT VORT MAX TRANSITING ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND
EASTERN NM. AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX, RAPID LOW-LEVEL SURFACE MOISTURE
RETURN WAS EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TX WITH DEWPOINTS
SURGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S TO MID 60S F OVER THE LAST 1-2
HOURS. WITH RAPID MOISTENING AND PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS ONGOING,
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION (1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8.5-9 C/KM)
FROM THE 12Z RAOBS WILL SUPPORT RAPID AND ROBUST UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX ( 45-60 KT 0-6KM SHEAR) WILL ALLOW FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH A PREDOMINATELY SUPERCELLULAR MODE.

A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF NEAR SIMULTANEOUS INITIATION POSSIBLE. CELLS
MAY INITIATE WITHIN THE MODIFYING WARM SECTOR NEAR AND TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE DRYLINE IN WEST-CENTRAL TX WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS IT MIXES EASTWARD. HODOGRAPHS, WHILE CURVED IN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM, ARE EXTENDED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE ALOFT. THIS,
ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND LAPSE RATES STRONGLY SUGGESTS
LARGE AND WIND-DRIVEN DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS. A TORNADO RISK (SOME SIGNIFICANT) MAY ALSO EVOLVE
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS AND 0-1KM SRH OF 150-200
M2/S2. A LOCALLY GREATER TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO EVOLVE FARTHER EAST
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITHIN A RAPIDLY
MODIFYING AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT, A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

..LYONS/HART.. 04/02/2023
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2 hours ago, cstrunk said:

I'm thinking about chasing today for the first time in forever. My target would be Glen Rose. 

Pulled the trigger. In Terrell now, still headed in the direction of Glen Rose. Hope to follow any supercells to the south of the Metroplex. 

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WW0110 Probability

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

High (70%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

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  • weatherextreme changed the title to Severe Weather 4-2-23/4-3-23

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