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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft
and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively
large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable
winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt
and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system.
The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to
the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt
based on these data.

Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm
is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely
to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast
of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the
consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the
spread in the forecast track models near landfall.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for
Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to
strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear
increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay
is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous
terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is
close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered
near this value.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Bursts of deep convection have continued to develop this evening
near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Data from the
earlier reconnaissance mission into Karl showed that the circulation
was elongated along a south-southeast to north-northwest axis with
at least a couple of swirls that are likely rotating around the
mean center. The plane did not find flight-level or SFMR winds any
stronger than what was reported before the release of the previous
advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt,
which is slightly above the latest Dvorak satellite estimates. The
next reconnaissance mission into Karl is scheduled for Wednesday
morning.

Karl is moving north-northwestward or 330/5 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. After that time,
a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of
Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank
of that anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to turn southwestward
Wednesday night. This motion should then bring the cyclone near the
coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. The latest
dynamical model guidance depicts a sharper turn Wednesday night and
the official forecast was adjusted southward, and a bit faster than
the previous forecast at 36 h and beyond. This southward
adjustment required the government of Mexico to extend the Tropical
Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. The new NHC track forecast
is close to the simple consensus aids and is also in good
agreement with the ECMWF model.

Karl is currently located within an environment of generally light
southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This
should allow some strengthening tonight or on Wednesday. After that
time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level
relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before
landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to
the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate in around
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several
hours. The central convection is currently minimal, with the
primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the
center in the eastern semicircle. NOAA buoy 42055 located to the
northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to
33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is 340/5 kt. A general north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue through today. After that, a ridge
of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over
northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of this
anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn
and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h. The latest
track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with
several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south
motion toward the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is
shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of
the current consensus models. If the models do not shift back
westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later
today.

Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate
southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This
should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h. After that
time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level
relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before
landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to
the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after
72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 21.1N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 21.7N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 21.7N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 20.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 20.2N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.5N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 18.6N 96.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3a
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 94.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Special advisory issued to put this at 60mph

Thanks for the update. 

 Here's today's 12Z UKMET, which is almost spot on vs its current recon based position. This has its current NE drift stop by tomorrow morning followed by a turn to the SSE the subsequent 48 hours (yes, too weak strengths per the usual but it was by a good margin the best with Ian's track starting within 3 days of FL landfall even with it being much too weak in many runs):


  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.10.2022

        TROPICAL STORM KARL       ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N  95.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.10.2022    0  21.6N  95.0W     1008            28
    0000UTC 13.10.2022   12  22.0N  94.6W     1007            29
    1200UTC 13.10.2022   24  22.1N  94.4W     1007            25
    0000UTC 14.10.2022   36  21.4N  94.0W     1006            25
    1200UTC 14.10.2022   48  20.6N  93.6W     1007            25
    0000UTC 15.10.2022   60  20.2N  93.3W     1006            29
    1200UTC 15.10.2022   72  20.0N  93.8W     1008            30
    0000UTC 16.10.2022   84              CEASED TRACKING

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3 hours ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

It's interesting that the UKMET never drives Karl inland.  

Makes me wonder if there is any chance at all of the storm lingering in the Bay of Campeche and being picked up by the next trough?  

Good question. However, after it is declassified as a TC the remnant surface low goes south inland over MX per the other source I look at.

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

A burst of deep convection has developed over the southeastern
portion of Karl's circulation since the previous advisory. Data from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055
indicate that the low-level center of the tropical cyclone is
located near the northeastern edge of that convection due to
northwesterly vertical wind shear. Although the aircraft has only
measured flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of
around 40 kt, the advisory wind speed is maintained at 45 kt due to
the recent increase in convection. Also, this gives the plane more
time to fully examine the cyclone, as it is possible the strongest
winds have yet to be sampled. Continued northwesterly shear and the
entrainment of dry mid-level air are likely to cause some weakening
over the next day or so, but Karl is forecast to be a tropical storm
when it nears the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening
and dissipation of the low-level circulation is expected as the
cyclone moves over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.

Fixes from the aircraft show that Karl has finally begun its
anticipated south-southeastward turn, and the initial motion
estimate is 155/4 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northwest of Karl is
expected to steer the storm south-southeastward through tonight. A
southward to south-southwestward motion is forecast on Friday which
should bring the center of Karl to the Bay of Campeche coast Friday
night or Saturday. The guidance envelope has moved slightly
eastward this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
that direction. There is still some spread in the models as to how
fast Karl will move southward, which results in some timing
differences regarding landfall in Mexico. The official forecast is
close to the GFEX and the other consensus aids to account for that.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of the Bay of
Campeche.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in Mexico by late Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 17.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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