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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You don't have to read too far down to get the boo news:

 

Nicole defintely following the trend alluded to here but of course it is based on timing of the front vs. large scale upper level issues.  Another winter full of La Nina.   NAM has Nicole going west of Pitt now though LSV still gets in on the initial slug.   I am hearing some clapping from the Pillow area. 

 

Mike-lindell GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nicole defintely following the trend alluded to here but of course it is based on timing of the front vs. large scale upper level issues.  Another winter full of La Nina.   NAM has Nicole going west of Pitt now though LSV still gets in on the initial slug.   I am hearing some clapping from the Pillow area. 

 

Mike-lindell GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

 

Thats making me dizzy! :D

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Really nice day out there - sunny and 61 here as well. Just a few high clouds from Nicole visible on the southern horizon...they should be filling in and thickening as the afternoon progresses. 

Yea, the other two warm days coming are 1) Wet for Friday and 2) More in the early AM Sat though it still may tickle 60's Saturday afternoon.   This could be the nicest outside day we see for some time. 

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12 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yep was just going to post it the next frame it looks like snow maybe tracking ahead for us. 

I'd use US loosely.  Were not in this one buddy, but Atomix/Mag/Paweather areas may be sharing the love in pic form.  Like you, I'm just happy to see our N/W pals gettin some early love from above.  Money panel says... aint a snowballs chance down here and as trainerboy often suggests....GFS thermal profiles are often a tad overdone w/ cold.  Just somethin to ponder while we wonder.

gfs_T850_eus_11.png

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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'd use US loosely.  Were not in this one buddy, but Atomix/Mag/Paweather areas may be sharing the love in pic form.  Like you, I'm just happy to see our N/W pals gettin some early love from above.  Money panel says... aint a snowballs chance down here and as trainerboy often suggests....GFS thermal profiles are often a tad overdone w/ cold.  Just somethin to ponder while we wonder.

gfs_T850_eus_11.png

Absolutely pondering this would be a tad early for us but at least we can track and dream about it. LOL

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5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You don't have to read too far down to get the boo news:

Image

I think the biggest thing that would concern me for a possible detriment to a average or above average snow is the moisture aspect over temps given the very dry October into first part of November we just had. I’m worried about a longer term below average precip regime persisting. Hopefully, this much needed rainfall tomorrow associated with the significant frontal system pulling Nicole up will be a catalyst to get us into a wetter pattern.

Otherwise yea I think we will see the usual Nina issues with perhaps more cutters than we’d like to see and some big temp swings. We tracking at a moderate Nina right now which is forecast to continue that way through at least the first half of the winter so there definitely will be some influence there. What happens with regard to the dominant pattern in the mid-latitudes and Arctic region (NAO/AO/ Pacific, etc) will determine whether we see much of the “colder” or “warmer” La Niña effects (or both). Again, my worry snow wise is having the cold but not the active wet pattern to go with it.  

I agree to a point with the reduced Nor’easter threat but SSTs in the Northwest Atlantic are significantly above average (as they have been this time of the year the last however many years it seems). The Nina influence may not be overly conducive to an active southern jet and a train of coastals but if we do get a setup for one, and we usually do a couple times a winter even in less favorable overall patterns.. those +SST’s would figure to be a factor into really winding one up. If we get a fast starting winter on the front end I think this would be the best chance for us to score something like that early since we’re further inland from the coastal plain (that region can be too warm with the +SSTs and a low that tracks too close to the coast in an early season storm).  

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On 11/2/2022 at 9:39 AM, canderson said:

CTP is hiring for a meteorologist. 
 

@MAG5035

Thanks for the head’s up on this, I’ve been slowly catching up with being quite busy this fall and not having much time to check in on here. That posting is still open for 4 more days so I’m glad I caught your post today haha. 

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