hawkeye_wx Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Nope, this is not the wind field of a TD or TS. It has more work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Nope, this is not the wind field of a TD or TS. It has more work to do. Looks like a lot more honestly. This is why recon is so valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Indeed most of the vorticity is still above the surface. Recon was flying very low investigating this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 NHC will initiate advisories on PTC 4 starting at 5pm EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Farther W than I wanted if at least wanted some rain. It rained today, so its ok. But even Tampico would seem a stretch. If that is the LLC developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt. However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. Since the system is likely to develop further and make landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12. The disturbance is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over northeastern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical shear, and this should continue until landfall. This should allow continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt near landfall. It should be noted, though, that the global models do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if they are correct any development could be slower than currently forecast. The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming over western and northern Texas. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into early Saturday. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rain from this system may move into far south Texas during the day on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Nothing to write home about at all with that recon mission, which is helpful in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Believe 99L has hit the shear factory. I thought it was further north than it was until the mid level center got exposed last night. Getting clobbered by shear this morning. Next. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 1 hour ago, StruThiO said: lol Lol what? It got shredded this morning and is just an open wave… I’m honestly shocked they designed this as a PTC. Maybe I’m wrong and this blows up to a 35-40 kt micro TS right before landfall but this is not the look of something developing. It’s had nice convective flare ups for days and I did think that strong MLC meant it could take off after the peninsula but it got sheared this morning and now has <24 hrs to do anything and looks like it’s going through a convective minimum at the moment. Tiny system though, these are hard to forecast especially if you’re talking the difference between a 30 kt wave and a 40 kt TS. Name is the only difference at this point 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 10 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: It looks like the plane should fly in, I suspect they'll find either a TD or NHC will PTC it to issue watches for Mexico, but the hurricane models are not impressed. If this goes Humberto before hitting Tampico (give or take), at this point, it would be a good demonstration of models needing improvement. Looking at SHIPS and wondering why things are all zero or negative on intensity Near zero or negative intensity factors, I didn't think things were that hostile, but whether for the right reasons or night, SHIPS was correct to not be impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 It’s been a system defined by convective bursts and tomorrow morning is likely the last chance for it to pull itself together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Lol WTNT44 KNHC 200231 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Based on the current infrared and microwave satellite data, the system does not appear to have a closed surface circulation yet and is therefore still not a tropical cyclone. The mid-level center is estimated to be located in the southwestern portion of the deep convection. Since there has been little change in organization after the Air Force reconnaissance left the system, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on that data. The disturbance is moving northwestward at 12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until landfall Saturday night in northeastern Mexico as the system is steered by a ridge to its northeast. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory prediction and closest to the correct consensus model guidance. Slight strengthening of the system is expected before landfall. Global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase in the next day or so, which should limit future organization and strengthening of the disturbance. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak of 40 kt before the system reaches the coast. It is worth noting that this intensity prediction is slightly above the guidance envelope. After moving inland, the system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours near the Texas/Mexico border. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, during the day Saturday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Saturday night, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.8N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1200Z 23.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 21/1200Z 26.9N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Best it has ever looked. very strong mid to low level circulation now it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Doesn't look that great to me. Looking at the old blue-gray color scale shortwave IR on CIMMS and TT site, the storms are S and E of the most obvious circulation. Maybe it is weak enough to organize a new center under the convection, but I watched the Dr. Cowan video, he seems to know of what he talks, I can't see why models aren't impressed myself, but they seem to have been correct so far and I think this might be the first ever PTC to landfall and dissipate. Unless I missed one. I assume instead of a name waster it will just waste a number if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 This one isn't going to make it. It showed promise early yesterday, but the convection poofed and it never really came close to closing off a defined circulation. It's a weak mess this morning and there is little time left over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: This one isn't going to make it. It showed promise early yesterday, but the convection poofed and it never really came close to closing off a defined circulation. It's a weak mess this morning and there is little time left over water. Everything is a fight this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 FWIW, recon has found some very weak westerly/NW'ly winds near the coast, but I agree, weak and disorganized mess today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Yea whiffed on this one. on to the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 The models have handled this quite well, it was always a version of a Nothing Burger on the various globals and ensembles, and then hurricane guidance was never impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 IMO- this should never have been designated a PTC. Recon clearly revealed an open wave yesterday, it had limited time over water, absolutely no model support even after being labeled an Invest, and a marginal shear environment to work with. I understand it was close to land but we can’t label every wave close to land a PTC. If it had TS force winds already (Like PTC 1) or some model support or some semblance of a developing circulation per recon, I wouldn’t question this. However lacking all of the above, the decision was questionable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: IMO- this should never have been designated a PTC. Recon clearly revealed an open wave yesterday, it had limited time over water, absolutely no model support even after being labeled an Invest, and a marginal shear environment to work with. I understand it was close to land but we can’t label every wave close to land a PTC. If it had TS force winds already (Like PTC 1) or some model support or some semblance of a developing circulation per recon, I wouldn’t question this. However lacking all of the above, the decision was questionable On the science, probably, on taking the course of least regret, I disagree. NHC has two missions, and one is public safety. Dr. Bob Sheets made the decision to not 'issue a last advisory' when then Tropical Storm Andrew was found to be a 40-50 knot not quite closed wave, restarting advisories 12 or 18 hours later could have led to confusion or delayed reaction. PTC was the course of least regret for a wave with a small area of night quite TS force winds. PTC is a built in safety factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: On the science, probably, on taking the course of least regret, I disagree. NHC has two missions, and one is public safety. Dr. Bob Sheets made the decision to not 'issue a last advisory' when then Tropical Storm Andrew was found to be a 40-50 knot not quite closed wave, restarting advisories 12 or 18 hours later could have led to confusion or delayed reaction. PTC was the course of least regret for a wave with a small area of night quite TS force winds. PTC is a built in safety factor. I agree with the safety factor but we’re talking worst case scenario here a quick short lived 35-40kt storm. That’s not something the public needs to be aware of, despite gale warnings for sea and flash flood watches. If it had TS force winds I’d agree with the PTC designation. Why was the last system not designated a PTC while this was? That one was more organized and caused more rain than this will? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I agree with the safety factor but we’re talking worst case scenario here a quick short lived 35-40kt storm. That’s not something the public needs to be aware of, despite gale warnings for sea and flash flood watches. If it had TS force winds I’d agree with the PTC designation. Why was the last system not designated a PTC while this was? That one was more organized and caused more rain than this will? If you are who I think you are, and have a name near identical to mine (I am EMM, I think E and M match if I am correct) and a web page of cool 1970s NY winter storms (I lived in Massapequa then), the person who trolled you for what turned out to be a correct point was ill advised as your posts are always valid, even if you might make a mistake occasionally. You follow Donald Sutherland as one of the best non-mets on the board, better than an always trolling red tag and a weenie Florida red tag, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 For those still following this, the BRO radar is showing the final approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: For those still following this, the BRO radar is showing the final approach. Yep, MLC is further south and showing pretty clearly on radar. You can see the disorganization beyond that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2022 Author Share Posted August 21, 2022 On 8/19/2022 at 10:17 AM, GaWx said: Based on the vis loop I just saw, I think the NHC chance for a TD forming will rise later today from the current 40%. With that, the chances of this becoming the first NS for this month are also rising imho. This may already be near TD status. Edit 10:45 AM EDT: With what appears to me to be a developing surface low with plentiful convection over the center, SSTs near the warmest in the Atlantic basin at 30 C/86 F, likely at least 18 hours left over open water/24+ hours before landfall, and this often being a favorable area to develop per history, I think this has a high chance to make it all of the way to TS status. Looking back, there have been a good number of examples of a TS forming within 24 hours of leaving the Yucatan as still a sub-TD near this location and with this trajectory. Bust! But good news for those impacted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 On 8/19/2022 at 6:03 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Name is the only difference at this point I rescind my comment yeah impacts are identical, regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Looks like Danielle lives to see another day this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Bust! But good news for those impacted. I’ll give myself kudos here: I never bit, especially after they flew that plane in there I did think it had a chance while it was still over the Yucatán but it clearly was sheared and disorganized after it entered BOC. Lesson for all: wait for recon/ascat before jumping to conclusions on convection 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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