February 2022 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 normal values for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Contest deadline before late penalties 06z Tuesday Feb 1st 2022. 

[Rjay]

DCA +0.5

NYC +0.5

BOS +0.5

ORD -1.0

ATL +1.0

IAH +1.0

DEN +1.0

PHX +2.5

SEA +2.5

[wxallannj]

DCA -0.4

NYC -0.5

BOS -0.7

ORD -1.2

ATL +1.2

IAH -1.6

DEN -0.7

PHX +1.5

SEA +0.4

[donsutherland1]

DCA +1.5

NYC +1.2

BOS +1.0

ORD -1.1

ATL +1.8

IAH 0.0

DEN -0.8

PHX 0.1

SEA -1.6

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.7      0.3      0.7       -0.9     2.1     -0.7      -1.2     0.4     -0.8

 

 

[Tom]

DCA -0.9

NYC -1.1

BOS -1.2

ORD -1.5

ATL -1.2

IAH -1.9

DEN -1.2

PHX +0.8

SEA +0.9

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +1.0

NYC +1.0

BOS +0.1

ORD -1.9

ATL +1.4

IAH -0.5

DEN -0.2

PHX +1.0

SEA -0.3

[bkviking]

DCA +1.2

NYC +1.0

BOS +1.0

ORD -1.4

ATL +1.2

IAH +0.6

DEN -0.4

PHX 0.3

SEA -1.2

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0        1.0       0.5       1.5    1.5          0.0     1.0    0.5 

[so_whats_happening]

DCA+0.8

NYC +0.7

BOS +0.5

ORD -1.1 -->-1.6

ATL +1.5

IAH +1.0

DEN +0.4

PHX +1.2

SEA -1.0

Edit at 11z changed ORD a little colder

[Roger Smith]

-1.8 __ -2.2 __ -3.0 __ -4.5 __ 0.0 __ +0.2 __ -3.5 __ +1.8 __ -4.3

[wxdude64]

OOPS!!

DCA:  +1.1

NYC:  +0.8

BOS:  +1.2

ORD:  -1.3

ATL:  +0.9

IAH:  +0.5

DEN:  -1.1

PHX:  +1.8

SEA:  -2.2

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for February 2022

Forecaster ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Don Sutherland 1 _____ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __-1.1 _ +1.8 __ 0.0 ___ -0.8 _+0.1 _ -1.6

BKViking ______________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ -1.4 _+1.2 _+0.6 ___ -0.4 _+0.3 _-1.2

wxdude64 _ (-1%) _____+1.1 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ -1.3 _+0.9 _+0.5 ___ -1.1 _ +1.8 _-2.2

Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ____0.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

hudsonvalley21 _______ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.1 __-1.9 _+1.4 _-0.5 ___ -0.2 _+1.0 _ -0.3

so_whats_happening __+0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.6 _+1.5 _ +1.0 ___+0.4 _+1.2 _ -1.0

 

___ Consensus ________ +0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.3 _+1.2 _+0.2 ___-0.7 _+1.0 _-0.8

 

RodneyS ______________+0.7 _+0.3 _+0.7 __-0.9 _+2.1 _ -0.7 ___ -1.2 _+0.4 _ -0.8

RJay __________________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __-1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+2.5 _+2.5

 

___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0

 

wxallannj _______________-0.4 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -1.2 _ +1.2 _ -1.6 ___ -0.7 _+1.5 _ +0.4

Tom ____________________-0.9 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 __ -1.5 _ -1.2 _ -1.9 ___ -1.2 _ +0.8 _+0.9

Roger Smith ____________-1.8 _-2.2 _ -3.0 __ -4.5 __0.0 _ +0.2 ___-3.5 _+1.8 _-4.3

==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== [] ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====

swh ORD fcst -1 (late revision)

color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts

consensus is median or 6th ranked forecast of 11. 

any later entries welcome, will adjust consensus. 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Tracking anomalies and projections ... 

____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

_11th ____ (10d anom) _____ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -0.2 _+0.9 _-7.4 __ -2.7 _ -0.7 _ -0.7

_21st ____(20d anom) _____ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +2.1 __ -1.0 _ +1.5 _-5.5 __ +0.3 _ +1.1 _ -0.3

 

_11th ____ (p20d anom) ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ -2.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5

_11th ____ (p28d anom) ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __-1.0 _ +1.5 _ -1.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.0

 

_21st ____ (p28 anom) ____ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ -2.0 _ +1.0 _ -3.0 __ -2.0 _ +1.5 _ -1.5

_25th ____ (p28 anom) ____ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+1.5 __ -2.0 _ +2.0 _ -4.0 __ -2.0 _ -0.5 _ -2.0

_28th ____ (final anoms) ___+2.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 __ -1.4 _ +3.2 _ -5.8 __ -3.6 _ -0.8 _ -1.9 

 

(11th) _ Cold air has been confined to the central regions most of the month so far, with variations producing small anomalies in both east and west. Recently very warm weather has developed over the west and there will be several very cold days in the east, but these appear likely to be balanced against warmer spells. So the projections show little change at first, other than a flattening out of the larger negative anomalies, then a general slight warming trend later in the month. Confidence is not all that high in the exact outcomes shown but for most locations a positive anomaly looks more likely than negative on balance. IAH will also run fairly warm but has a larger negative anomaly to overcome. 

(21st) _ The trends 11th-20th were generally about as expected although warming at both IAH and SEA was weaker than I had estimated, so their anomalies remain lower (SEA by a less significant amount). Going forward, it now appears that there will be significant cold air intrusion in the east after a brief warmer spell, and longer more sustained cold in central and western regions other than for PHX which looks relatively warm. The end of month projections now reflect those trends. The degree of cold air for the east seems insufficient to flip the anomalies to negative but the interval itself will average about -3 or possibly -4 F. 

(25th) _ Adjusted the projections, looks a bit milder after very warm days earlier in the week in the east despite cold air now pressing in, meanwhile slightly colder for IAH and PHX than expected, preliminary scores to be adjusted. 

_28th _ Most of the projections are close enough at this point to wait for final adjustments, but IAH will come in lower which will activate the "max 60" scoring, thus not much difference to current scoring and also DEN looks colder so have revised scores for now based on -4.0. ... overnight all other values will be adjusted to final values and scoring will be updated as required. (As of 12z all scoring is complete with the final anomalies available, see above).

=========================================================

Updated winter snowfall totals ... to Mar 10th 

 

DCA _ 12.3"

NYC _ 17.9"

BOS _ 53.8"

ORD _ 32.1"

DTW _ 39.6"

BUF _ 87.5"

DEN _ 39.8"

SEA _ 9.2"

BTV _ 57.8"

____________________________

This list will now be updated only in the March contest thread.  

[StormchaserChuck!]

Let's do March

[so_whats_happening]

The two that have surprised me most by far is IAH and SEA.

[Roger Smith]

I can tell you that it has been very mild in the daytime here (I am due north of Spokane near the border) for about a week now, and we are probably around +2 or +3 here. The low anomaly in SEA is probably mostly due to daytime inversions, they have been in fog quite often in Vancouver this past ten days with the milder air on the slopes. IAH had a few very cool days and otherwise near normal. 

Chuck, sorry you missed Feb, I should have sent you a reminder after that good start in Jan but I get very busy with all sorts of contest duties on three different forums and by the time I noticed it was getting towards the end of the penalty cutoff. Anyway, March thread will open around the 24th in this short month. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for February 2022

 

Scores are based on end of month anomalies (several posts back now).

* _ one point late penalty applied __ ^ max 60 scoring by ranks.

 

Forecaster ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL

Don Sutherland 1 _____ 78 _ 96 _ 94 __ 268 __ 94 _ 72 _ 36^__ 202 __470 __44 _ 82 _ 94 __ 220____ 690

RodneyS ______________62 _ 78 _ 88 __ 228 __ 90 _ 78 _ 48^__ 216 __444 __ 52 _ 76 _ 78 __ 206 ____ 650

BKViking ______________72 _ 92 _ 94 __ 258 __100_ 60 _ 18^ __ 178 __436 __ 36 _ 78 _ 86 __ 200 ____ 636

wxdude64 _ (-1%) _____69*_ 87*_ 97*_ 253 __ 97*_ 53*_ 24^__ 174 __427 __ 50 _ 48 _ 93*__ 191____ 618 

___ Consensus ________ 64 _ 86 _ 84 __ 234 __ 98 _ 60 _ 30^__ 188 __422 __ 42 _ 64 _ 78 __ 184 ____ 606

hudsonvalley21 _______ 68 _ 92 _ 76 __ 236 __ 90 _ 64 _ 42^__ 196 __432 __ 32 _ 64 _ 68 __ 164 ____ 596

so_whats_happening __ 64 _ 86 _ 84 __ 234 __ 95*_ 66 _ 12^__ 173 __407 ___20 _ 60 _ 82 __162 ____ 569

wxallannj ______________40 _ 62 _ 60 __ 162 ___ 96 _ 60 _ 54^__210 __372 __ 42 _ 54 _ 54 __ 150 ____ 522

Scotty Lightning ______ 68 _ 92 _ 94 __ 254 __ 62 _ 46 _ 06^__ 114 __368 __ 28 _ 64 _ 52 __ 144 ____ 512

___ Normal ____________ 48 _ 72 _ 74 __ 194 __ 72 _ 36 _ 36^__ 144 __338 __ 28 _ 84 _ 62 __ 174 ____ 512

Tom ___________________30 _ 50 _ 50 __ 130 __ 98 _ 12 _ 60^__ 170 __300 __ 52 _ 68 _ 44 __ 164 ____ 464

RJay __________________ 58 _ 82 _ 84 __ 224 __ 92 _ 56 _ 12^__ 160 __384 __ 08 _ 34 _ 12 __ 054 ____ 438

Roger Smith ___________ 12 _ 28 _ 14 __ 054 __ 38 _ 36 _ 30^__ 104 __158 ___98 _ 48 _ 52 __198 ____ 356

==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== [] ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====

swh ORD fcst -1 (late revision)

_______________________________________________________

Extreme forecast report

DCA_ Don Sutherland (+1.5) takes a win for an outcome of +2.6.

NYC_ Don Sutherland (+1.2) takes a win for an outcome of +1.4.

BOS_ wxdude64 (+1.2) takes a win for an outcome of +1.3.

ORD_ Did not qualify (-1.6). Fifth coldest forecast had high score. 

ATL_ RodneyS (+2.1) takes a win for an outcome of +3.2.

IAH_ Tom (-1.9) takes a win as outcome is -5.8.

DEN_ At -3.6 this is a win for Roger Smith (-3.5).

PHX_ At -0.8, win for DonSutherland1 (+0.1 coldest forecast) and also Normal.  

SEA_ At -1.9, this will be counted as a shared win for DonS (-1.6) and wxdude64 (-2.2) although a one point late penalty could be used to remove this result from the list of extreme forecasts. It counts as a loss for Roger Smith at -4.3. 

(four wins for DonS, two for wxdude64, and one for Tom, Roger Smith, RodneyS and Normal; and one loss for Roger Smith (too cold at SEA). )

Eight of nine locations qualify for an extreme forecast, four warmest and four coldest. 

---------------------------------------------------------

Forecasts for checking scores

Actual ________________+2.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 __-1.6 _+3.2 _ -5.8 ___ -3.6_ -0.8 _ -1.9

 

Don Sutherland 1 _____ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __-1.1 _ +1.8 __ 0.0 ___ -0.8 _+0.1 _ -1.6

BKViking ______________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ -1.4 _+1.2 _+0.6 ___ -0.4 _+0.3 _-1.2

wxdude64 _ (-1%) _____+1.1 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ -1.3 _+0.9 _+0.5 ___ -1.1 _ +1.8 _-2.2

Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ____0.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

hudsonvalley21 _______ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.1 __-1.9 _+1.4 _-0.5 ___ -0.2 _+1.0 _ -0.3

so_whats_happening __+0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.6 _+1.5 _ +1.0 ___+0.4 _+1.2 _ -1.0

___ Consensus ________ +0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.3 _+1.2 _+0.2 ___-0.7 _+1.0 _-0.8

RodneyS ______________+0.7 _+0.3 _+0.7 __-0.9 _+2.1 _ -0.7 ___ -1.2 _+0.4 _ -0.8

RJay __________________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __-1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+2.5 _+2.5

___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0

wxallannj _______________-0.4 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -1.2 _ +1.2 _ -1.6 ___ -0.7 _+1.5 _ +0.4

Tom ____________________-0.9 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 __ -1.5 _ -1.2 _ -1.9 ___ -1.2 _ +0.8 _+0.9

Roger Smith ____________-1.8 _-2.2 _ -3.0 __ -4.5 __0.0 _ +0.2 ___-3.5 _+1.8 _-4.3

________________________________________________________________________

After the discussion posted in January on max 60 scoring, I wanted to go over how the IAH scores were generated ...

scoring boost for IAH (-5.8) _ note scores must be at least the progression level, can only be adjusted for spread up from that level.

Forecaster ___ fcst __ raw score __ prog score __ linear ____ recalc ____ gain over raw

Tom __________-1.9 ____ 30 _______ 60 ____________ 60 _______ 60 ______ 30

wxallannj _____ -1.6 ____ 24 _______ 54 ____________ 51 _______ 54 ______ 30

RodneyS ______ -0.7 ____ 07 ______ 48 ____________ 39 _______ 48 ______ 41

hudsonv21 ____ -0.5 ____ 05 ______ 42 ____________ 36 _______ 42 ______ 37

DonS, norm ____ 0.0 ____ 00 ______  36 ____________ 26 _______ 36 ______ 36

R Smith, con ___+0.2 ____-02 _____ 30 _____________23 _______ 30 ______ 30

wxdude64 _____+0.5 ____-05 _____ 24 _____________18 ________24 ______ 24

BKViking _______+0.6 ____-06 _____ 18 _____________16 ________ 18 ______ 18

RJay, swh ______ +1.0 ____-12 _____ 12 _____________ 09 _______ 12 ______ 12

Scotty L ________+1.5 ____-22 _____ 00 _____________00 _______ 06 ______ 06

(scores are recalc up if either raw or linear scores are higher than levels. Scotty L to 06 as prog level unused and prog differential smaller than either raw or linear drop. This will be the format for any other recalc situations from max 60, for example, if RodneyS had predicted -1.5 his raw score would be 22 (not sufficient) but his linear score 49 and that would have replaced 48. If hudsonvalley21 had predicted -1.4 as well as the above, then his raw score would be 20 and his linear score 48 (replacing 42). ... the use of zero for minimum score will be applied only when the forecast at end of progression is further out of step than the parameters, otherwise it will go to the range 01-06. Eleven scoring levels are required for eleven forecasters, ten spaces between levels means progression is by 6 pt units). Note also for practical purposes raw scores below zero are zero when they occur in a non-boost situation. This was factored into "gain over raw score" above, 00 was used not the negative raw scores that generate the linear progression for fairness. 

 

[Roger Smith]

________________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-Feb 2022) __________________

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL

wxdude64 ______________ 127 _145 _189 __ 461 __159 _153_ 88 __ 400 __861 __126 _132 _ 181 __ 439 ____1300

so_whats_happening ____116 _130 _152 __ 398 __165 _148 _ 68 __ 381 __779 __ 108 _150 _182 __ 440 ____1219

wxallannj ________________ 94 _108 _126 __ 328 __148 _146 _122__ 416 __744 __140 _142 _146 __ 428 ____1172

hudsonvalley21 __________104 _122 _126 __ 352 __154 _128 _ 80 __ 362 __714 __130 _156 _156 __ 442 ____1156

____ Consensus __________100 _114 _130 __ 344 __150 _132 _ 74 __ 356 __700 __136 _152 _160 __ 448 ____1148

DonSutherland1 _________ 108 _120 _146 __ 374 __154 _106 _ 66 __ 326 __700 __138 _158 _130 __ 426 ____1126

BKViking _________________ 92 _106 _128 __326 __140 _130 _ 42 __ 312 __638 __134 _166 _156 __ 456 ____1094

RodneyS _________________ 84 _ 80 _110 __ 274 __108 _142 _ 88 __ 338 __612 __138 _160 _172 __ 470 ____1082

_____ Normal _____________ 90 _104 _124 __318 __ 80 _ 130 _116 __ 326 __ 644 __112 _166 _126 __404 ____1048

Tom ______________________70 _ 76 _ 92 __ 238 __144 _ 96 _158 __ 398 __ 636 __146 _164 _ 90 __ 400 ____1036

Scotty Lightning _________ 90 _104 _134 __328 __ 62 _110 _ 56 __ 228 __ 556 __ 102 _156 _ 126 __ 384 ____940

RJay _____________________ 80 _ 94 _114 __ 288 __130 _130 _ 32 __ 292 __ 580 __ 92 _ 102 _ 76 __ 270 ____ 850

Roger Smith ______________48 _ 58 _ 54 __ 160 __ 66 _ 106 _ 60 __ 232 __ 392 __ 152 _118 _130 __ 400 ____ 792

Stormchaser Chuck (1/2) _ 92 _ 92 _ 80 __ 264 __ 58 _ 86 _ 80 __ 224 __ 488 ___ 94 _ 68 _ 24 __ 186 ____ 674

===========================================

Best Forecasts _ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with two others. 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan

so_whats_happening ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0

wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0

___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

DonSutherland1 __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ Feb

BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith ______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred once for SEA in Feb.)

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them)

So far, 13 of 18 forecasts qualify, 4 warmest and 9 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, 

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _ _TOTAL

DonSutherland1 __________ --- _ 4-0*_ ___ ____4-0 (3.5 - 0)

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ ___ ____4-0 (3.5 - 0)

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ ___ ___ 2-0

Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ ___ ____ 2-1

RodneyS __________________ --- _ 1-0 _ ___ ___ 1-0

so_whats_happening _____ 1-0 _ --- _ ___ ____ 1-0

____ Normal _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ ___ ____ 1-0

Roger Smith ______________ --- _ 1- 1 _ ___ ____ 1- 1

hudsonvalley21 ___________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0

RJay ______________________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0

Scotty Lightning __________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0

wxallannj __________________--- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0

BKViking __________________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0

===============================

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons contest __ winter 2021-22 portion _ Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022

 

FORECASTER _________________ TOTAL _________ Points

Don Sutherland 1 _______________1623 ___________ 10

RodneyS _______________________1600 ____________ 7 

wxallannj _______________________1572 ___________ 6

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 1540 ___________ 5

 

wxdude64 _____________________ 1535 ___________ 4 

__ Consensus __________________ 1513 ___________ 3.5

so_whats_happening ___________1499 ___________ 3

BKViking _______________________1467 ___________ 2

RJay ___________________________1351 ___________ 1

__ Normal ______________________1173 ___________ 1

Tom ___________________________ 1309 ___________ 1

Scotty Lightning _______________ 1138 ___________ 1

Roger Smith ____________________1043 ___________ 1

 

Stormchaser Chuck _____________ 674 (1/3) ______ 0

Deformation Zone _______________430 (1/3) ______ 0

============================================

Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. 

This year, if Consensus or Normal score more than one, they get the middle value of the range, in this case, Consensus scores 3.5. 

December scoring was rather low especially below third place, compared to Jan and Feb, so the totals have tended to mirror December's scoring.