Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Looks like it mixes for a bit after it fills in. yep the low never transfers on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Looks like it mixes for a bit after it fills in. not sure why it is showing that mix. No signs of mixing on the sounding at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: not sure why it is showing that mix. No signs of mixing on the sounding at that point. Maybe the rates will be heavy enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 13" through hr 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Bottom line is, even with all this fretting about dry slotting, this run still puts down roughly a foot in the metro. Yes, it’s closer to 18” in Youngstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Would be very satisfied and we could still get higher if that low is 50 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Would be very satisfied and we could still get higher if that low is 50 miles east. It does look like the 12z was slightly east of the 06z with the deform band placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On another forum there are some surprises being reported down south with snow where not really forecasted by models, etc. Anything can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Yinz are going to drive yourselves nuts clicking on hourly increments of hourly models for the 8 hours, and checking where the pretty colors line up. I think E to W across central AGC will be the difference between 8 and 12 because of dry slot duration. And N to S along that axis will add or subtract ~2” from that range. Beaver /Lawrence/Butler certainly have a shot to pop a 15” total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Would be very satisfied and we could still get higher if that low is 50 miles east. Very possible. Watch the HRRR from hr 14-23. It starts west, tries to transfer to the east, and then goes back west. IF it doesnt go back west. We might get the death band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Burghblizz said: Yinz are going to drive yourselves nuts clicking on hourly increments of hourly models for the 8 hours, and checking where the pretty colors line up. I think E to W across central AGC will be the difference between 8 and 12 because of dry slot duration. And N to S along that axis will add or subtract ~2” from that range. Beaver /Lawrence/Butler certainly have a shot to pop a 15” total. Clicking the hourly increments is what i live for lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Very possible. Watch the HRRR from hr 14-23. It starts west, tries to transfer to the east, and then goes back west. IF it doesnt go back west. We might get the death band we are just going to have to watch where it pivots. December of last year we were close to being dry slotted but it pivoted just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 And yeah, looking at it more the axis on this run was absolutely 25 or so miles further east. One more tick like that and we will also be looking at 15 inches possibly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Yinz are going to drive yourselves nuts clicking on hourly increments of hourly models for the 8 hours, and checking where the pretty colors line up. I think E to W across central AGC will be the difference between 8 and 12 because of dry slot duration. And N to S along that axis will add or subtract ~2” from that range. Beaver /Lawrence/Butler certainly have a shot to pop a 15” total. As a weather nerd it's not too often we get a chance at a foot so when it happens o become obsessed. I'll probably go hit some golf balls at the dome and then come home and get ready to enjoy whatever falls while watching the greatest upset in the history of the NFL wildcard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: As a weather nerd it's not too often we get a chance at a foot so when it happens o become obsessed. I'll probably go hit some golf balls at the dome and then come home and get ready to enjoy whatever falls while watching the greatest upset in the history of the NFL wildcard. Thing is, the models suggest we could already have warning-level snow on the ground when Ben lines up in the victory formation and takes a knee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Thing is, the models suggest we could already have warning-level snow on the ground when Ben lines up in the victory formation and takes a knee. That’s the plan! (but I plan on a fun night regardless) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: That’s the plan! (but I plan on a fun night regardless) Wait...the Steelers play tonight? Something exists outside of tracking this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 how long have we been tracking this storm? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: As a weather nerd it's not too often we get a chance at a foot so when it happens o become obsessed. I'll probably go hit some golf balls at the dome and then come home and get ready to enjoy whatever falls while watching the greatest upset in the history of the NFL wildcard. For steeler fans, a power outage might be better. They have no shot lol. And no, this isn't negativity, I am not a steeler fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: For steeler fans, a power outage might be better. They have no shot lol. And no, this isn't negativity, I am not a steeler fan. I’m supposed to work tomorrow but not going to sleep much tonight so I could get behind the power outage idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Thing is, the models suggest we could already have warning-level snow on the ground when Ben lines up in the victory formation and takes a knee. Yeah, some of the heaviest snow looks to fall before 1am, then go to bed and don't fret the slot and wake up a few hours later and watch radar fill in, that might be my plan lol. Being east of the city my yard probably needs more of an adjustment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just for fun I clicked through to end of Euro, and it has a very similar setup next weekend, shortwave diving down with another coming in behind that could phase partially... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: For steeler fans, a power outage might be better. They have no shot lol. And no, this isn't negativity, I am not a steeler fan. I agree and I'm not a huge fan but I still root for the improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 @MillvilleWx I saw you offer in the Central PA forum, but us over here in the Steel City would appreciate your thoughts on our chances for 12+" Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah, some of the heaviest snow looks to fall before 1am, then go to bed and don't fret the slot and wake up a few hours later and watch radar fill in, that might be my plan lol. Being east of the city my yard probably needs more of an adjustment. That’s my plan too. Sleep during dry slot :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: For steeler fans, a power outage might be better. They have no shot lol. And no, this isn't negativity, I am not a steeler fan. Maybe the Chiefs all wake up with COVID today? So it's not a Zero chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Just for fun I clicked through to end of Euro, and it has a very similar setup next weekend, shortwave diving down with another coming in behind that could phase partially... Yeah, jog that thing a bit west and we’re in business. It’s at least interesting at this point. The 6z GFS has a parade of potential winter greatness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Yeah, jog that thing a bit west and we’re in business. It’s at least interesting at this point. The 6z GFS has a parade of potential winter greatness. NAM hires does not dry slot us at all, which is a solid trend as the NAM has been one of the most aggressive models in slotting us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: And no, this isn't negativity, I am not a steeler fan. Okay, we’ve heard enough from you, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: NAM hires does not dry slot us at all, which is a solid trend as the NAM has been one of the most aggressive models in slotting us. The regular NAM was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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