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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. 

Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. 

Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. 

Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative.

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9 hours ago, rockchalk83 said:

The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. 

Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. 

Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. 

Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative.

That western Kansas band is nightmare fuel. A 5-10 mile wide band got hammered. I think one location for 27 inches, which is almost a state record. Outside of that bad, got substantially less. 

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9 hours ago, rockchalk83 said:

The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. 

Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. 

Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. 

Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative.

Yeah, looks like some chances for flurries/snow showers wed night/thurs and then maybe a couple of bigger storms the first week of Feb, location uncertain at this time though. After that, things get kind of questionable as the ensembles vary on what happens next.

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Feels like it's been forever since I've been on here. Beyond boring pattern here in ICT lately. At least western ks was able to get some excitement in spots as mentioned above. However, it looks like there is finally something meaningful to watch over the next week. Most models showing at least some type of storm system crossing the southern plains as talked about above. I like that this is backed up by what looks to be the AO dipping to negative or at least neutral around this time. Along with a pattern change from northwest to southwest flow. Details will come, but I think someone on this board gets some meaningful winter precip a week or so from now. Here's to hoping! Regardless of moisture type, the drought in the southern plains continues to expand north and east so I'll take any meaningful moisture we can get!

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SGF: 

Quote
Beyond Monday, much uncertainty exists with sensible weather and
potential impacts. Ensembles show considerable spreads in both
temperatures and precipitation amounts, thus confidence is very
low beyond Monday. Overall signals though do indicate a more
active period with the potential for some impactful weather,
However details are very much up in the air. As an example of the
spread can be seen in NBM temperature ranges that by Wednesday
have a 20 degree range for highs (37 to 57). GEFS plumes of QPF
also showing a large spread in solutions.

 

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1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said:

I knew not to expect much to begin with but I'm thinking tonight's system is gonna be a bust for E OK and W AR. Too much dry air.

Weren't flurries just expected? Dusting at most?

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