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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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Wound up with just under 4" here in Monett... temps never did get above freezing, but did get to 31. Models were just off enough to keep us under that magic number. 

Looks like the pattern flips cold again -- hope we get a few more clippers that sneak up on us in the next couple of weeks. There seem to be some signals for that. 

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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Wound up with just under 4" here in Monett... temps never did get above freezing, but did get to 31. Models were just off enough to keep us under that magic number. 

Looks like the pattern flips cold again -- hope we get a few more clippers that sneak up on us in the next couple of weeks. There seem to be some signals for that. 

-EPO looks to persist. In time, it may shift more to the NW, which would cause the eastern trough to retrograde back west. Tough to time any individual systems that may form though.

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Since there’s nothing much to talk about take a look at hr 84 of the 18z NAM.   Significant snow moving into Western KS and the OK panhandle. 

EDIT: No other models show this.  CMC has a minor something.  Other models are zilch.  

Not much model support, I think the 12z GFS individual ensemble members had 1-2 members that had something. Going to be tough for the models to key in on anything with the way the flow is. 

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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

NAM and RGEM are a little further north and west with some snow late Wednesday, along with some freezing rain and sleet. Amounts are light... but something to track. The GFS and EURO don't develop this until further SE. 

The last 3-4 runs of the GFS (including 12z) have the NW trend too.  Still looks to be very light amounts but still something to watch.  Sounds like the cold air behind the front on Thursday will be bigger story.  
 

QPF on the GFS/RGEM is less than 1/10 inch.  NAM is about 1/10.  

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Definitely going to have to watch N AR and S MO Wed night for a quick burst of wintry weather. Decent 850mb frontogenic forcing is going to try to force some mixed precip and a band of snowfall somewhere in that area. 

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Wednesday
 NWS now has Snow Wednesday perhaps?
A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 2pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Wind chill values as low as 19. North wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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The timing of the system on the 24-25th is interesting on the GFS. There's a system opening up and lifting out of the SW as energy digs into the backside. If there's a phase, there would be a much larger storm. 

EDIT: And the 12z Euro must have read my post........

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23 hours ago, JoMo said:

The timing of the system on the 24-25th is interesting on the GFS. There's a system opening up and lifting out of the SW as energy digs into the backside. If there's a phase, there would be a much larger storm. 

EDIT: And the 12z Euro must have read my post........

Can you educate me (us) on what’s missing for the 24th storm?  The wave digs deep into Baja and ejects east nicely but seems to be too open.   Do we just need it to be more closed off, negative tilt, etc?    
 

I also see the northern wave of energy that looks to phase as it moves into the northeast.  Does that need to happen faster? 
 

Thanks for teaching us, Yoda! 

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5 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

Can you educate me (us) on what’s missing for the 24th storm?  The wave digs deep into Baja and ejects east nicely but seems to be too open.   Do we just need it to be more closed off, negative tilt, etc?    
 

I also see the northern wave of energy that looks to phase as it moves into the northeast.  Does that need to happen faster? 
 

Thanks for teaching us, Yoda! 

Overall, just poor timing and energy in the northern stream kind of squashing everything. If you view the 500 MB vorticity image on the 18z GFS at 96 hours (18z Mon) you can see the closed system across the Texas Panhandle. You can also see another piece of energy across SW Montana. If we wanted a bigger storm, we'd want to see that piece of energy over Montana phase into the back of the system in the Texas PH. It doesn't. Also the northern stream kind of shreds the system. It's all about having the correct timing and pieces in place. 

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6 hours ago, NWAflizzard said:

Its been hard watching these storms look like they may come together over our area but then wait until they cross into Tennessee and the southeast to blow up.  We have had some decent snows this winter but it just feels like we had the potential for so much more so far.

Unfortunately, that's pretty typical of La Nina. Every now and then one will come together far enough west though.

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