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Some random thoughts for winter -

- The strongest land falling hurricanes on the Gulf Coast tend to precede incredible cold waves. Not always. Not in the same location or same month. But they do appear pretty frequently: 1932, 1935, 1947, 1961, 1969, 2004, 2017, 2018, 2020 all come to mind.

- Cold ENSO Junes with staggering Western heat is not common. Like...at all. It's vanishingly rare actually. But it shows up in 1961 (a year a with 932 mb hurricane to hit the Gulf v. 929 this year).

- In La Nina years since 1950, April NAO patterns correlate to December NAO patterns around ~0.25 (r-squared). The correlation is positive, so like last year, the very negative April favors a -NAO in December.

- Years with similar levels of warming in Jan-Aug in Nino 4 - La Nina, El Nino - whatever situation you have - tend to be fairly warm in the winter. Not always - but very few exceptions either.

I am expecting a major cold wave in the East this December. But I don't think it will last the entire month, and I don't think the month will finish super cold overall.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love it...cherish the days when the sun sets as I leave work.

Understood but SAD is real for some.  Since  my schedule opened up I don’t experience the discomfort as much since it’s light when I get up and I’m not indoors as much during the day.

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Any of you see this? Paul Pastelok interview (lead long-range guy at Accuweather) on winter 2021-22. He does say the Accuweather winter outlook isn't done yet. Will be out 9/29. But still interesting to see what he says. He seems to like at least 2013-14 and 2020-21 as analogs. I do like 2020-21 but 2013-14 has fallen off a bit for me as an analog.

https://cheddar.com/media/will-this-winter-be-the-season-of-shivers

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11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Any of you see this? Paul Pastelok interview (lead long-range guy at Accuweather) on winter 2021-22. He does say the Accuweather winter outlook isn't done yet. Will be out 9/29. But still interesting to see what he says. He seems to like at least 2013-14 and 2020-21 as analogs. I do like 2020-21 but 2013-14 has fallen off a bit for me as an analog.

https://cheddar.com/media/will-this-winter-be-the-season-of-shivers

I think the moral of the story is that this winter should be serviceable in the east.

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6 hours ago, weathafella said:

Perhaps.  I think there’s a wide variety of potential on both sides-more so vs most preseasons.   So while consensus suggests serviceable there is ratter potential-but there’s also epic potential.

I 100% agree with you on the epic potential, though I dont think 1995-1996 is the ceiling. I think the ceiling nov-mid Jan 1995-1996, with a transition to a late Jan to late Feb redux 2014-2015, then a transition to March 2018. The closer we get to winter, the better the signals get. I’m going to hold up on my winter forecast right now, but right now I am leaning towards going big. From what I have read the early signs are favorable for North Atlantic blocking, and a La Niña+ North Atlantic blocking pattern makes me lean towards a similar winter to last year being the floor. Last year the pacific was absolute garbage, the polar vortex didn’t cooperate at all, and there was a massive trough in the west. On top of that with individual storms everything that could go wrong did go wrong. 

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14 hours ago, George001 said:

I 100% agree with you on the epic potential, though I dont think 1995-1996 is the ceiling. I think the ceiling nov-mid Jan 1995-1996, with a transition to a late Jan to late Feb redux 2014-2015, then a transition to March 2018. The closer we get to winter, the better the signals get. I’m going to hold up on my winter forecast right now, but right now I am leaning towards going big. From what I have read the early signs are favorable for North Atlantic blocking, and a La Niña+ North Atlantic blocking pattern makes me lean towards a similar winter to last year being the floor. Last year the pacific was absolute garbage, the polar vortex didn’t cooperate at all, and there was a massive trough in the west. On top of that with individual storms everything that could go wrong did go wrong. 

Just so I can properly prepare are you going  under or over 300 inches of snow??...

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On 9/20/2021 at 8:06 PM, raindancewx said:

Any of you see this? Paul Pastelok interview (lead long-range guy at Accuweather) on winter 2021-22. He does say the Accuweather winter outlook isn't done yet. Will be out 9/29. But still interesting to see what he says. He seems to like at least 2013-14 and 2020-21 as analogs. I do like 2020-21 but 2013-14 has fallen off a bit for me as an analog.

https://cheddar.com/media/will-this-winter-be-the-season-of-shivers

Seems  very generic..... 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think so.....climo is established not by coincidence. Having that forecast be a "cop out" implies that you should be forecasting extremes, which is generally ill advised at extended leads.

I guess what I’m saying is that there seems to be potential for an extreme year but to me not enough evidence to call it. 

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Just so I can properly prepare are you going  under or over 300 inches of snow??...

Maybe in the Berkshires, but the Boston area the ceiling is probably around 150 inches is what I am thinking now. Depending on how the pattern evolves over the next couple of months, that number could increase.

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34 minutes ago, George001 said:

Maybe in the Berkshires, but the Boston area the ceiling is probably around 150 inches is what I am thinking now. Depending on how the pattern evolves over the next couple of months, that number could increase.

You can always increase it…..

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

Maybe in the Berkshires, but the Boston area the ceiling is probably around 150 inches is what I am thinking now. Depending on how the pattern evolves over the next couple of months, that number could increase.

Thanks, based on your estimates for Boston and the Berkshires I think it is safe for me to assume around 200 inches for the Merrimack valley area ..just curious are you related to JB????....

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This is from my winter outlook draft. Key word is draft. This is not necessarily representative of what I'll settle on by 10/10 when I finish up.

If you're wondering if it is possible to get two severely cold, Plains centered, February cold outbreaks in a row, the answer is yes, and it's not actually that uncommon. The second year outbreak tends to be weaker though. I used 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 as the match for last's year outbreak. Tentative idea is a more extreme version of Feb 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019 - i.e. similar spatial placement but much warmer in the south since you have strong long-term correlations to SE warmth in winter after -PDO Summers.

Image

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11 hours ago, George001 said:

Maybe in the Berkshires, but the Boston area the ceiling is probably around 150 inches is what I am thinking now. Depending on how the pattern evolves over the next couple of months, that number could increase.

Lol no way. Boston area snow lovers would be happy with a 70-80” inch season

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9 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Lol no way. Boston area snow lovers would be happy with a 70-80” inch season

150"+ in Boston would be pretty epic. Anything 100"+ in, as well as north and west of the major northeast cities, is kind of crushing and not something that these locations have seen in a very, very long time now.

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36 minutes ago, ThundaBOOMA said:

150"+ in Boston would be pretty epic. Anything 100"+ in, as well as north and west of the major northeast cities, is kind of crushing and not something that these locations have seen in a very, very long time now.

Well Logan airport right on the water measured 110 inches in the winter of 2014-15.

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2 minutes ago, ThundaBOOMA said:

I meant a more widespread area of those kind of departures from average.

Most of sne had huge departures and all of Boston metro had >100.   Even the cape got buried.  It was a perfectly timed pattern with storms. Ironically in mid January BOS was way below normal for the season.  So imagine how epic it was from the 1/23 storm through February when >100 fell in many areas.

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