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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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Posted on NWS discussion page.
.CLIMATE...
La Nina looks like it will continue for the winter.
Just ran some numbers and found that...

Out of the last 41 winter seasons `80-81 thru `20-`21:
- 16 have been La Nina during the DJF period (meteorological
  winter).

In these 16 seasons, the State College Co-Op location (PSU`s
Walker Building) snowfall has been:
- Above normal (GT +1 standard deviation) for only 2 seasons
  (`83-`84 and `95-`96). 1995-1996 had nearly 100" of snow,
- 9 seasons were near normal (median of 38.8" over the 41
  seasons), and
- 5 were below normal (LT -1 standard deviation).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
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FWIW (and that's not a lot), if one looks at @paweathers 6z GFS run, it would likely give many snow weenies some morning wood....

Not a lock and not likely to work out as depicted, but takeaway verbatim would be several chances coming up in early december with vorts passing thru every few days.  Nice early winter start IMO.  Ens guidance not as robust for clipper as Op closes off and digs a bit while Ens stays open (which would argue for a norther correction).  Beyond that....I just like the look and will keep an eye (or both) on next week while freeezin arse off in treestand in search of venison.  

Not going to be on much over the next week, but I'll be looking from afar....with that said, despite this shitstorm we still are working through, we all still have a bunch to be thankful for.  Focus on what you are fortunate to have, and worry much less about what you don't.  There is always someone who would gladly trade places with you.

Happy and healthy Thanksgiving to all.

Nut

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

Sunday first snowfall?

The first two 12Z's are not overly enthusiastic for Sunday.   NAM does not go that far but is not looking amped.  Icon has a coastal spin up and steal the show.   Icon does portray a choo choo train of snow TV events.  Of most interest to me is the extraordinarily cold air just to the North on the Icon.  If something bubbled up and pulled that down, game on.   As is the air is moderately below normal. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie has an impressive system come together.  Just a bit too late for us . Jersey north through SNE with a nice early season snowfall.  My bar is a period of light snow or snow showers to kick the year off .

 

500hv.conus.png

 

Euro more focused on a N Gulf low but the ground truth weather is the same here.

image.png.709631f7c4d8412d463d5bbdb26e1771.png

 

 

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