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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it. 

This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of snow over a large part of PA. The Euro has also occasionally had wound up coastal runs that had interior PA snow. It’s definitely a timeframe with potential with what looks to be a pretty significant amplification of the pattern and favorable trending of pretty much all the major teleconnections going into next week (NAO/AO going negative and nice Greenland block, EPO/PNA going positive). Big takeaway regardless of the eventual evolution of the features that may or may not deliver a coastal is the Thanksgiving holiday and the couple days either side look like they could be pretty cold. Some of you guys might even have to turn the AC off haha. 
 

I’m not sure if a straight up winter pattern sticks quite yet. Kinda looking more into the start of December or so for the possibility of that. The early stratwarm events and Nina ENSO state are lending support to what has seemed to be a general theme of a quick start and cold December in most prognosticators winter forecasts. Lining up the teleconnections and keeping them in the direction they appear to be heading next week will def go a long way to giving the east a cold pattern right off the bat kicking off meteorological winter. The return of significant blocking in the NAO/AO realm really saved us last winter against a pattern on the Pac/western US side that was rarely favorable. So one thing I’m looking for as a key to success of consistent cold winter weather this winter is having the favorable Pacific/Western US pattern as I wouldn’t trust depending on seeing the kind of long lasting anomalous -NAO we saw last year. 

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45 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it. 

This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of snow over a large part of PA. The Euro has also occasionally had wound up coastal runs that had interior PA snow. It’s definitely a timeframe with potential with what looks to be a pretty significant amplification of the pattern and favorable trending of pretty much all the major teleconnections going into next week (NAO/AO going negative and nice Greenland block, EPO/PNA going positive). Big takeaway regardless of the eventual evolution of the features that may or may not deliver a coastal is the Thanksgiving holiday and the couple days either side look like they could be pretty cold. Some of you guys might even have to turn the AC off haha. 
 

I’m not sure if a straight up winter pattern sticks quite yet. Kinda looking more into the start of December or so for the possibility of that. The early stratwarm events and Nina ENSO state are lending support to what has seemed to be a general theme of a quick start and cold December in most prognosticators winter forecasts. Lining up the teleconnections and keeping them in the direction they appear to be heading next week will def go a long way to giving the east a cold pattern right off the bat kicking off meteorological winter. The return of significant blocking in the NAO/AO realm really saved us last winter against a pattern on the Pac/western US side that was rarely favorable. So one thing I’m looking for as a key to success of consistent cold winter weather this winter is having the favorable Pacific/Western US pattern as I wouldn’t trust depending on seeing the kind of long lasting anomalous -NAO we saw last year. 

I liked the look at the end of the 10 day Euro Op. run today.

Low pressure developing over the south central states. High Pressure building in to our north and northwest. I would have liked  to see what day 11 and 12 looked like.

I think the pattern will give us opportunities to score snow early over the next few weeks.

75FFBC65-505B-4385-A9DD-D602E43C7E64.png

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44 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Haha I was gonna post that CNN already has a hype article on this possibility but you beat me to it. 

This was the timeframe that the one GFS run a few days ago had a monster with like 20-30”+ of snow over a large part of PA. The Euro has also occasionally had wound up coastal runs that had interior PA snow. It’s definitely a timeframe with potential with what looks to be a pretty significant amplification of the pattern and favorable trending of pretty much all the major teleconnections going into next week (NAO/AO going negative and nice Greenland block, EPO/PNA going positive). Big takeaway regardless of the eventual evolution of the features that may or may not deliver a coastal is the Thanksgiving holiday and the couple days either side look like they could be pretty cold. Some of you guys might even have to turn the AC off haha. 
 

I’m not sure if a straight up winter pattern sticks quite yet. Kinda looking more into the start of December or so for the possibility of that. The early stratwarm events and Nina ENSO state are lending support to what has seemed to be a general theme of a quick start and cold December in most prognosticators winter forecasts. Lining up the teleconnections and keeping them in the direction they appear to be heading next week will def go a long way to giving the east a cold pattern right off the bat kicking off meteorological winter. The return of significant blocking in the NAO/AO realm really saved us last winter against a pattern on the Pac/western US side that was rarely favorable. So one thing I’m looking for as a key to success of consistent cold winter weather this winter is having the favorable Pacific/Western US pattern as I wouldn’t trust depending on seeing the kind of long lasting anomalous -NAO we saw last year. 

I should have said MagLosatoa 2021 storm as I now remember you did throw out that GFS earlier.  Ha. 

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Yesterday's 12z Euro was real pretty at h5 for sure but the dreaded bit more progressive solutions are starting to rear their heads as far as the early week system. New England favored probably.....Still too early though . I'm thinking the follow up energy after the neg nao is established better and possible more traditional 50/50 sets up Thanksgiving weekend .....is our bread .

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19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I liked the look at the end of the 10 day Euro Op. run today.

Low pressure developing over the south central states. High Pressure building in to our north and northwest. I would have liked  to see what day 11 and 12 looked like.

I think the pattern will give us opportunities to score snow early over the next few weeks.

75FFBC65-505B-4385-A9DD-D602E43C7E64.png

It's close at h5 verbatim ^

 

Look 36 hours before . The Early week bomb becomes our 50/50 and the neg nao blows up ...and I count 3 legit  pieces of  energy flying around.  Looks intriguing :popcorn:

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7798400.png

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thick clouds and a mild 36 here. 

Low here was 28, rather cloudy and 43 here now. I was about to post that it's going to have a really hard time getting anywhere close to 60 today, but my temp just spiked from 39 to 43 in a matter of a few minutes despite the cloudy skies. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Low here was 28, rather cloudy and 43 here now. I was about to post that it's going to have a really hard time getting anywhere close to 60 today, but my temp just spiked from 39 to 43 in a matter of a few minutes despite the cloudy skies. 

Its coming pal....KPIT is searchin for sunscreen.  :sizzle:

image.thumb.png.a03b3fc9ec4dd4b5a3ee216c1f2cd71e.png

 

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48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Low here was 28, rather cloudy and 43 here now. I was about to post that it's going to have a really hard time getting anywhere close to 60 today, but my temp just spiked from 39 to 43 in a matter of a few minutes despite the cloudy skies. 

Hey Pal, the HRRR say's it is coming.  70's tomorrow as well. 

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1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

has anyone been out lately? It kind of has that snowstorm feel. Maybe its just me dreaming ;)

I think it even looks like an impending snowstorm...the sky has that look I remember as a child, impatiently waiting for the first flakes to start flying. 

Wait...I still do that today...

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Low this morning was 28.6.  39 here now with a dense overcast.  There's been no sun yet today.  I don't know about reaching 60.  

If there is a simple way to underachieve, its keeping cloud cover east of the mtns. in late fall especially.  I'm gonna hope for a bust, but the winds SHOULD win out eventually. 

 

Me hopes not.

namconus_z700_vort_neus_9.png

 

 

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