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Post-Tropical Ida (Cat 4 hurricane @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 40 mph, 998 mb, 28 mph NE) - possible area flood impact, tornadoes, and severe weather


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Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 291157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Special Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in 
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please 
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, 
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation. 
 Persons located within these areas should take all necessary 
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the 
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow 
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 89.6 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday afternoon.  A northeastward turn is
forecast by Monday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Ida
will make landfall along the coast of southeastern Louisiana
within the hurricane warning area late this morning or early this
afternoon.  Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions
of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft 
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 
km/h) with higher gusts.  Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4 
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some 
additional strengthening is forecast, and Ida is expected to be an 
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the 
Louisiana coast.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).  An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East 
near Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind 
of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust to 113 mph (181 km/h).  Another 
NOAA elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a 
sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h). 

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA 
reconnaissance aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida 
moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next 
few hours. 

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning by later this morning with
tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning.
These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday.  Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track
across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through
Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley: 3 to 6 inches with
isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine
flooding.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday from
southeast Louisiana across southeast  Mississippi and southwest
Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle.

SURF:  Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

 

093339_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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We also have this from NHC -

Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Ida, located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico approaching the 
coast of Louisiana, on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the 
central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Depression Eleven, 
located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Delmarva 
Peninsula is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
over the warm Gulf Stream waters.  Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for some slow development over the next few days as this 
system drifts southeastward and then eastward, moving away from the 
east coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa 
by Tuesday.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form toward the end of the week while the system moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Berg

Will need to watch if that holds and somehow interacts with the remnants of Ida, perhaps in a similar fashion as the ULL a week ago interacted with Henri.

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Quote
938 
WTNT64 KNHC 291355
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
900 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... 
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN 
LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, 
recently reported a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 116 mph (187 km/h). Another elevated NOAA C-MAN station at 
Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass recently reported a 
sustained wind of 97 mph (156 km/h) and a gust to 121 mph (194 
km/h). 

A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Pilottown, 
Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) 
and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). 


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 89.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (150 mph, 929 mb, 13 mph NW) - possible area flood impact

NHC 11 am update (slows to 13 mph NW, pressure 933, winds steady at 150 mph)

Quote
469 
WTNT64 KNHC 291557
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... 
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF  
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,  
recently reported a sustained wind of 89 mph (143 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a 
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at Lakefront Airport in New 
Orleans. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana, 
recently reported a water level of 6.0 feet above mean higher high 
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yatcht 
Club, Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet 
above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of 
inundation in that area. 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (150 mph, 933 mb, 13 mph NW) - possible area flood impact

Landfall @ 12:55 pm EDT -

Quote
000
WTNT64 KNHC 291653
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR 
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made 
landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port 
Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC).  Data from an Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that 
Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150 
mph (240 km/h).  The latest minimum central pressure estimated from 
reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a 
gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New 
Orleans. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana, 
recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean higher high 
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, 
Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.5 feet above mean 
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that 
area. 


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (Cat 4, Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 150 mph, 930 mb, 13 mph NW) - possible area flood impact
  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (Cat 4, Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 140 mph, 937 mb, 11 mph NW) - possible area flood impact

NHC 4 pm EDT  Update to Advisory -

Quote
000
WTNT64 KNHC 291956
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREME WINDS FROM IDA SPREADING FARTHER INLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
HOURS...

About one hour ago, the South Lafourche Leonard Miller Jr airport 
in Galliano (KGAO) reported a peak gust of 98 mph (158 km/h). More 
recently, a research gauge near the airport reported sustained 
winds of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust to 110 mph (178 km/h).

A Weatherflow station near Dulac just reported sustained winds of 
89 mph (143 km/h) and a gust to 138 mph (222 km/h).

Another Weatherflow station in Jefferson Parrish recently reported 
a gust to 79 mph (128 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 90.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Brown

WPC D3 -

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (Cat 4, Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 130 mph, 938 mb, 10 mph NW) - possible area flood impact
45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ida almost stalled and now appears to be drifting due north 

 

When it first made landfall, it looked like it was rolling like a bowling bowl almost due W or WNW but then it looked like it hit a "wall" and is drifting now more to the NW again.  It's been 4 hours since landfall and it is still a minimal Cat 4 @ 130 mph.

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NHC 5 pm Advisory (still Cat 4, but minimal, slowed to 10 mph and near steady at 938 mb) -

Quote
622 
WTNT34 KNHC 292051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 90.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning along the coast of Louisiana from Morgan
City to Intracoastal City has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning from Cameron to Intracoastal City
Louisiana has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning west of Morgan City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 90.6 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
tonight.  Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  Ida is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.  Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,
however Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight 
and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). A Weatherflow station near Dulac just reported sustained 
winds of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a gust to 135 mph (217 km/h).  A 
Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station at the South 
Lafourche airport recently reported a sustained wind of 91 mph (146 
km/h) and wind gust of 122 mph (196 km/h). A sustained wind of 51 
mph (81 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported 
at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...5-8 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as 
it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana through this evening.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm
conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the 
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower 
Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday.  Total rainfall 
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern 
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life- 
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river 
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across 
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, 
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches 
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday 
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians 
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, 
Tuesday into Wednesday. 

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding 
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from 
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. 

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle.  A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF:  Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through early Monday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (Cat 4 @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 125 mph, 941 mb, 10 mph NW) - possible area flood impact

NHC 7 pm EDT update (weakened to a Cat 3 125 mph, 941 mb, 10 mph NW) -

Quote
000
WTNT64 KNHC 292257
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
600 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA PASSING JUST EAST OF MATHEWS LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station at the South 
Lafourche airport recently reported a sustained wind of 79 mph (125 
km/h) and a wind gust of 103 mph (165 km/h).

The New Orleans Lakefront Airport reported a sustained wind of 66 
mph (106 km/h) with a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).

Also within the last hour, a Weatherflow site on the Pontchartrain 
Causeway reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 81 mph (130 km/h).

An observation in Lockport recently reported a minimum pressure of 
941 mb (27.79 inches) inside the eye of Ida.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 90.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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57 minutes ago, Phil Connors said:

pre climate change this would have only been a tropical depression. When will we learn?

Really? Are you serious? Major hurricanes have been occurring since well before fossil fuels were being burned. 

This isn't the thread for climate change discussion. Especially a post this ludicrous. 

  • Weenie 1
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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (Cat 4 @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 120 mph, 944 mb, 10 mph NW) - possible area flood impact

NHC 8pm Intermediary Advisory (continues to weaken and down to 120 mph & 944 mb, forward motion unchanged) -

Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 292354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near
latitude 29.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Ida is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the north is
expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
tonight.  Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts.  Ida is a dangerous 
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.  Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,
however, Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight
and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles 
(240 km). A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 83 
mph (133 km/h) was recently observed at New Orleans International 
Airport.  A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust of 85 mph 
(137 km/h) was recently reported at Frenier Landing, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).  
A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station 
located northeast of Raceland, Louisiana, recently reported a 
minimum pressure of 945 mb (27.91).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as
it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana through this 
evening.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm
conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday.  Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle.  A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF:  Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through early Monday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (Cat 4 @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 115 mph, 947 mb, 9 mph NW) - possible area flood impact

NHC 9 pm EDT update (continues to weaken with sustained @115 mph, pressure 947 mb, and slowing to 9 mph) -

Quote
000
WTNT64 KNHC 300055
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
800 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA'S EYE PASSING JUST WEST OF NEW ORLEANS...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH 
FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

A Weatherflow observations on Pontchartrain Causeway recently 
reported a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust of 89 
mph (142 km/h).

An observation at the Gulfport Marina in Mississippi recently 
reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h).

Another observation in Shell Beach, Louisiana, reported a sustained 
wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (120 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 90.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (Cat 4 @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 75 mph, 972 mb, 9 mph N) - possible area flood impact

NWS 2 am EDT update (has weakened to a Cat 1  at 75 mph, 972 mb, and moving N at 9 mph) -

Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 300550
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 90.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF GREENSBURG LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located 
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and satellite data near latitude 
30.6 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is moving toward the north 
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to 
continue today.  A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin 
by tonight and continue on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana 
early this morning and move into southwestern Mississippi later 
this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over central and 
northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and move across 
the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during 
the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical storm 
later this morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  During the past hour, a sustained wind of 57 mph 
(92 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) were measured by a 
Weatherflow station in Mandeville, Louisiana. Along the Gulf coast, 
a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, 
Mississippi, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) 
and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to 
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be 
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding 
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and 
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to 
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather 
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves 
farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few 
hours.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next couple of 
hours.  Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over 
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through this morning.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley today.  Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible 
across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through 
today. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban 
flooding and significant river flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast today and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes will be most likely through this morning over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle.  A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama later today.

SURF:  Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates are being discontinued after the 
100 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Hurricane Ida (Cat 4 @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 60 mph, 990 mb, 8 mph N) - possible area flood impact

NWS 5 am EDT Advisory (downgraded to a TS, 60 mph, 990 mb, 8 mph) -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA NOW A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 90.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NNE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Morgan City to
Grand Isle, Louisiana.

The Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued
west of Grand Isle, Louisiana.

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from Grand Isle to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
*Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was 
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, satellite data, and surface 
observations near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is 
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general 
motion is forecast to continue today.  A faster northeastward motion 
is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over 
southeastern Louisiana early this morning and move into southwestern 
Mississippi later this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over 
central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and 
move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression by 
this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km), 
mainly southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 32 mph (51 km/h) 
and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) were recently observed at the airport 
in McComb, Mississippi. Along the Gulf coast, a Weatherflow station 
in Gulfport, Mississippi, recently measured a sustained wind of 46 
mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pointe a la Hache, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne..4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Bay St. Louis, LA to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Pointe a la Hache, LA... 2-4 ft
Morgan City, LA to Grand Isle, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves
farther inland over southwestern Mississippi during the next few
hours.

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland over
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through this morning.

RAINFALL:  Through Tuesday morning, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 with localized higher amounts possible
across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with life threatening flash
flooding and significant riverine flooding continuing farther
inland.

Ida is expected to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is possible from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama through Wednesday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight, mainly
across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western
Florida Panhandle.

SURF:  Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

With all the power in the New Orleans metro area out, KLIX is down.

031947_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind1.png

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Ida (Cat 4 hurricane @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 60 mph, 990 mb, 8 mph N) - possible area flood impact
  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Ida (Cat 4 hurricane @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 45 mph, 993 mb, 8 mph N) - possible area flood impact

NHC 8 am EDT Update (now down to 45 mph, slowed to 8 mph, pressure gradually rising and at 993) -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS 
OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHERN 
ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 90.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
*Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was 
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, satellite data, and surface 
observations near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is 
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general 
motion is forecast to continue today.  A faster northeastward motion 
is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over 
southwestern Mississippi this morning. Ida is then forecast to move 
over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and 
tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression this 
afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km),
mainly southeast of the center over water. A coastal marine 
observing site at Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported 
sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).
A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently measured at Biloxi, 
Mississippi.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pointe a la Hache, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Bay St. Louis, LA to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Pointe a la Hache, LA...2-4 ft
Morgan City, LA to Grand Isle, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of 
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama through this 
morning or early afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Through Tuesday morning, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 with localized higher amounts possible
across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with life threatening flash
flooding and significant riverine flooding continuing farther
inland.

Ida is expected to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is possible from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama through Wednesday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight, mainly
across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western
Florida Panhandle.

SURF:  Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf 
coast through today.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

The SE ridge needs to shunt it up to the cold front in order for it to get sucked onto the highway to here. Otherwise it is crawling along at 8 mph and just pouring rain on those folks.

nws-current-surface-800am-radsfcus_exp_new-08302021.gif

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p120i.gif

 

Interesting that WPC has the axis of heavy rain further south than Mt. Holly's briefing package. Regardless, 3-5" region wide is going to cause both flash flooding and river flooding with how wet August has been for most of the area. Most of the region is running 150% - 200%+ above normal for the month.

 

full.php?day=30&month=08&year=2021&time_

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18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

p120i.gif

 

Interesting that WPC has the axis of heavy rain further south than Mt. Holly's briefing package. Regardless, 3-5" region wide is going to cause both flash flooding and river flooding with how wet August has been for most of the area. Most of the region is running 150% - 200%+ above normal for the month.

 

full.php?day=30&month=08&year=2021&time_

I already told my supervisor at work that if this happens Wednesday into Thursday that I'll be working from home on Thursday. No way I'm driving to SNJ and back amidst all of that.

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6 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I guess the only positive is Ida will be zipping along at a good clip. But then again, so were Floyd and Isaias. We do tropical systems interacting with cold fronts well around here. :raining:

Yeah but the downside to that is almost all of the rain falls in like a 6-9 hour period. This is the latest nam and the vast majority of it falls in a 6 hour period. 

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Post-Tropical Ida (Cat 4 hurricane @ Landfall @12:55pm EDT, 40 mph, 998 mb, 28 mph NE) - possible area flood impact, tornadoes, and severe weather

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