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Post-tropical Henri - 8/21 - 8/24 (Landfall 8/22 @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 25 mph, E 14 mph, 1007 mb)


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NHC 8pm Advisory -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 202346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI TURNS NORTHWARD...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 
INVESTIGATING THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 73.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point
* Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East
Rockaway Inlet
* North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing
* Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New
York, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri.  Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is
now moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A continued 
forward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early 
Sunday.  On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall 
in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or 
so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday 
and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long 
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Sunday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over
Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could
result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (70 mph, N 7 mph, 994 mb)

Meanwhile the FV-3(I believe it is taking over for the NAM soon) slams into NYC after being at the end of LI at 12z. Seems like the mesos are intent on the storm getting captured but the globals aren't biting yet. Think it comes down to how strong it gets the next 12-18 hours.

 

fv3-hires_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Meanwhile the FV-3(I believe it is taking over for the NAM soon) slams into NYC after being at the end of LI at 12z. Seems like the mesos are intent on the storm getting captured but the globals aren't biting yet. Think it comes down to how strong it gets the next 12-18 hours.

 

fv3-hires_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

It's a shame we are 24 hours out from it and the models are all over the place.  The shear had been keeping it from moving much but the visible looks like it is trying to stack and it is getting into a more favorable area.

henri-shear-wg8shr-1050pm-08202021.GIF

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11 pm Advisory.  Cone (with landfall) about the same but possibly a tiny tick west. Speed has picked up a little...

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 210259
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between
Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island
and Martha's Vineyard.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in
effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet,
New Jersey, including New York City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri.  Additional watches or
warnings may be required on Saturday Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northward to 
north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a 
turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday 
night.  On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and 
Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday
and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards 
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft 
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY 
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft 
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, 
NY...3-5 ft 
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft 
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, 
NY...2-4 ft 
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm 
conditions expected by Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions are 
possible in the hurricane watch area late Saturday night or on 
Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area late Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (70 mph, N 9 mph, 994 mb)

OMG both the 18z and 0z GFS were showing what appears to be some TC running right into LA right at the end of the runs.  Yes I know but.... :lmao:

0z GFS seems steady but I noticed a trend of a slight swinging out to the east and then recurving back around to the west before doing a landfall.  And am seeing that loop-de-loop/stall around SE NY/NE PA before heading back east once on land.

Am adding the TC into LA too for posterity.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_fh6-72.gif

gfs_0z_mslp_pcpn_us_fh360-360.gif

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NHC 5 am Advisory (has weakened a bit, picked up speed and now moving to the NNE) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 210853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES 
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND 
FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED 
STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... 


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 73.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch east of Westport, Massachusetts has been 
discontinued, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening 
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, 
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction 
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a 
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas 
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from 
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local 
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.2 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A 
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a 
turn toward the north-northwest expected late today or tonight.  On 
the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long
Island or southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and 
Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near 
hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or
southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical
conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New 
England. 

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

 

092545_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (70 mph, NNE 12 mph, 996 mb)
  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (70 mph, NNE 12 mph, 993 mb)

NHC intermediate Advisory (storm still headed to the NNE @12 mph but has strengthend to 993 mb and does look a bit more stacked on vis) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 211148
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING HENRI...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING 
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES 
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- 
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or 
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be 
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward
to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward
the north-northwest expected by tonight.  On the forecast track, 
Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern
New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Henri is 
expected to become a hurricane later today and be at or near 
hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern 
New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air 
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical
conditions expected by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Almost all the model runs so far (0z & 6z) have shifted back to the east. The ensembles seem a tick east vs the operational but the range is pretty narrow on where the track is going to go, unless it does a "S word" special (left hook) at the last minute. :lol:

08L_tracks_06z-08212021.png

08L_gefs_06z-08212021.png

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The models that were further west yesterday had Henri much stronger than it is currently. It's clear that it's lack of rapid strengthening which was forecasted to occur overnight never happened and with a weaker system the storm shifted east. It honestly doesn't even look that great this morning. Should still see some showers/period of rain but the flood threat seems pretty minimal now in these parts despite the watch. 

 

Edit: 06z icon and nam but show flooding rains for se pa but I wont be surprised if that area ticks north with time due to the further east track. I think it ends up coming it at RI. 

 

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49 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

The models that were further west yesterday had Henri much stronger than it is currently. It's clear that it's lack of rapid strengthening which was forecasted to occur overnight never happened and with a weaker system the storm shifted east. It honestly doesn't even look that great this morning. Should still see some showers/period of rain but the flood threat seems pretty minimal now in these parts despite the watch. 

 

 

 

Last night it had weakened to about 996/997 but as of the last report, it was down to 993 so it did strengthen a bit and at least on visible, it seems to be stacking a bit better with the naked swirl tucked under the mid levels a bit better and the shear that was keeping it from moving north has started to shift away, allowing it to pick up some speed.  But it looks like some dry air got ingested into the lower level circulation so it's trying to form an eye somehow with that going on.

There's a recon in the storm right now that is still finding the 993.

recon_AF304-1008A-HENRI.png

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Post-tropical Henri - 8/21 - 8/24 (Landfall 8/22 @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 25 mph, E 14 mph, 1007 mb)

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