Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,895
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Classbravo
    Newest Member
    Classbravo
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

That's insane! Yes, I know is wasn't a tornado but it sure looks like one with how those trees are sheared off. I probably lost a half dozen trees from last June's derecho but all of them were still attached to their root ball. Incredible damage for such a localized area. 

Doors and windows are open, got down to 62F overnight. 68F/DP 59F.

I guess if you think of the the wind mechanics and dynamics - I can see where briefly sustained strong winds over a short time frame might cause a tree with a large canopy like that, to rock back and forth, breaking the feeder/surface roots in the process, and finally toppling over with root mass intact and now exposed.

But in this case (and many others), the tree just snapped, as if smacked by the rapid onset of a very strong, concentrated, and directed force of wind. :o 

It's like something you see happen with major hurricanes at a landfall.  The trees might not get chance to rock and uproot/topple.  The bark gets stripped, the branches get defoliated as they are ripped off, and the tree trunk eventually snaps.

I remember the pics out of the FL panhandle near where Hurricane Michael made landfall as a CAT 5 back in 2018.  You had trees along the highways looking like this -

I4QK4CSXIMI6TKUDKBHQQ27V2Y.jpg

Anyway, the 63 was my low and it's currently partly cloudy and a confortable 76 with dp 59.  Really nice out!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chilling on the porch :oldman: and up comes the biggest freaking bee I ever did see. This thing was terrifying like 3" body at least. All escape routes cutoff! Pick up the only weapon available, a huge battle axe...err umm broom. Holding it out in a defense posture so the dang thing keeps it's distance and flies away, but no. The bastard determines the games afoot and comes closer zooming right and left, obviously trying to calculate the correct time to speed forward for the kill! But no after several sweeps side to side it determines now is not the time for the kamikaze attack and slowly turns and flies off, not unlike a small drone. 

First thoughts were I spotted my first cicada killer. Unfortunately the solid stripes on the body didn't match the irregular ones of that species. Orangish yellow black and white stripes both common hornets and...gasp murder hornets have :yikes:

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Chilling on the porch :oldman: and up comes the biggest freaking bee I ever did see. This thing was terrifying like 3" body at least. All escape routes cutoff! Pick up the only weapon available, a huge battle axe...err umm broom. Holding it out in a defense posture so the dang thing keeps it's distance and flies away, but no. The bastard determines the games afoot and comes closer zooming right and left, obviously trying to calculate the correct time to speed forward for the kill! But no after several sweeps side to side it determines now is not the time for the kamikaze attack and slowly turns and flies off, not unlike a small drone. 

First thoughts were I spotted my first cicada killer. Unfortunately the solid stripes on the body didn't match the irregular ones of that species. Orangish yellow black and white stripes both common hornets and...gasp murder hornets have :yikes:

 

LOL  I think I saw one of those yesterday when I was out on the front of the house near my car.  First thing that came to mind based on the size was cicada killer. But I wasn't sure because it was too busy following me and I had no weapon like my spiked swatter or a broom. :lol:  I tried to wait for it to land when I got a little distance away, in order to see the front of it better, and it definitely wasn't a murder hornet or a bald-faced hornet (I have had to deal with the large bald-faced ones before).  But it was pretty big, but somewhat long and slender, and I believe the cicada killers nest in the ground, so they will hang around the ground like mine did.

Currently just hit 80 here and dp at 59.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

LOL  I think I saw one of those yesterday when I was out on the front of the house near my car.  First thing that came to mind based on the size was cicada killer. But I wasn't sure because it was too busy following me and I had no weapon like my spiked swatter or a broom. :lol:  I tried to wait for it to land when I got a little distance away, in order to see the front of it better, and it definitely wasn't a murder hornet or a bald-faced hornet (I have had to deal with the large bald-faced ones before).  But it was pretty big, but somewhat long and slender, and I believe the cicada killers nest in the ground, so they will hang around the ground like mine did.

Currently just hit 80 here and dp at 59.

It was BIG. Like I want a SAM missile battery to prevent further incursions. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Will it ever rain again? Just concerned about the local sweet corn otherwise I'd love a drought continuation.

 

Plenty of rain come December, January and Feb…book it!  :raining:

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My low this morning was a warmer 66. It's currently sunny and clear and 77 with dp slowly creeping up, but reasonable at 62.  Today will probably be about the last before the humidity starts to reappear.  Am also watching the disturbance down near FL that may become a TD in the next few days depending on the sheer.  If it does ever become a TS, it would be "Fred".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

*I am posting this as advice as we head closer to winter and in general. I posted this all in another board (NYC-centric) and wanted to share here too*

This is why using pre-1980 analogs simply do not work anymore in the warmer climate we now have. First of all, you have to take into account most NOAA/NCEP reanalysis data compiles anomalies based off certain climate eras, most notably being 1981-2010. So, here I will show you a very simple graph demonstrating the increase in temperature at the KJFK location since 1950:

1990438539_KLGAAnnualMaxTempGraph.png.d511d172452f11eebaa6633f7c9b8d84.png

 

So, obviously even a 2-3 degree increase will skew anomaly results dramatically. I went through Quasi-Biennial Oscillation data and pulled out all the winter years that featured moderate to significant averaged -QBO values (magnitudes of -10.00 or greater). I sorted them by 1950-1990 and 1991-2020. There were 10 cases I pulled out for the earlier time step and 7 for the more recent one. *Disclaimer* -> I am aware that synoptic and global atmospheric conditions are more than just dependent on the QBO. However, it has been postulated that -QBOs typically feature/favor lower averaged 500hPA heights over the United States and higher averaged 500hPa heights over the higher latitudes. Below you'll see the resultant maps:

oHopSi5VAa.png.7bb03d1206a9dcf404f01de83c9bf095.png

fV9Ob5tNLO.png.1c12240f7a5a2c36b628ab45de776a7b.png

 

My first thought when comparing these maps was the obvious smearing of much lower heights all across the board in the 1950-1990 time frame. Why is this? Because of a changing climate. You CAN NOT compare early early years in available data sets to current 1981-2010 climate averages. You will skew everything towards lower heights/colder averages. It's as simple as that. Also, it would be hard to dismiss there are *some* similarities to the two. Noticeably the lower averaged heights in China and Europe. However, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish whether or not the placement or trends of higher heights is by chance or reason. In the 1950-1990 map, the usual '-QBOs create higher heights in the high latitudes and colder weather in the mid-latitudes' notion could be supported by the data (however, perhaps caused by the skewing therefore not supporting it). In the 1991-2020 map, it is very hard to pick out any lower heights/colder areas in North America. Regardless of it all, if anything this exercise goes to show that analogs from before 1980 (that might be generous, maybe even 1990) should not be used or compiled into modern era anomaly maps/charts/graphs to avoid unnecessary skewing. I know lots of y'all know this, however if you go around on twitter or other boards and come across this... please ignore whoever posted it.

  • Thanks 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Newman said:

*I am posting this as advice as we head closer to winter and in general. I posted this all in another board (NYC-centric) and wanted to share here too*

This is why using pre-1980 analogs simply do not work anymore in the warmer climate we now have. First of all, you have to take into account most NOAA/NCEP reanalysis data compiles anomalies based off certain climate eras, most notably being 1981-2010. So, here I will show you a very simple graph demonstrating the increase in temperature at the KJFK location since 1950:

1990438539_KLGAAnnualMaxTempGraph.png.d511d172452f11eebaa6633f7c9b8d84.png

 

So, obviously even a 2-3 degree increase will skew anomaly results dramatically. I went through Quasi-Biennial Oscillation data and pulled out all the winter years that featured moderate to significant averaged -QBO values (magnitudes of -10.00 or greater). I sorted them by 1950-1990 and 1991-2020. There were 10 cases I pulled out for the earlier time step and 7 for the more recent one. *Disclaimer* -> I am aware that synoptic and global atmospheric conditions are more than just dependent on the QBO. However, it has been postulated that -QBOs typically feature/favor lower averaged 500hPA heights over the United States and higher averaged 500hPa heights over the higher latitudes. Below you'll see the resultant maps:

oHopSi5VAa.png.7bb03d1206a9dcf404f01de83c9bf095.png

fV9Ob5tNLO.png.1c12240f7a5a2c36b628ab45de776a7b.png

 

My first thought when comparing these maps was the obvious smearing of much lower heights all across the board in the 1950-1990 time frame. Why is this? Because of a changing climate. You CAN NOT compare early early years in available data sets to current 1981-2010 climate averages. You will skew everything towards lower heights/colder averages. It's as simple as that. Also, it would be hard to dismiss there are *some* similarities to the two. Noticeably the lower averaged heights in China and Europe. However, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish whether or not the placement or trends of higher heights is by chance or reason. In the 1950-1990 map, the usual '-QBOs create higher heights in the high latitudes and colder weather in the mid-latitudes' notion could be supported by the data (however, perhaps caused by the skewing therefore not supporting it). In the 1991-2020 map, it is very hard to pick out any lower heights/colder areas in North America. Regardless of it all, if anything this exercise goes to show that analogs from before 1980 (that might be generous, maybe even 1990) should not be used or compiled into modern era anomaly maps/charts/graphs to avoid unnecessary skewing. I know lots of y'all know this, however if you go around on twitter or other boards and come across this... please ignore whoever posted it.

Of course KLGA suffers from the same problematic heat island issues of most major airports in the US.....which always is a cause for pause - although the post obs adjustments to historical obs to "correct" the old warm bias is prevalent.....but are these adjustments correct? Are they adjusting to help support the story? All issues for those way beyond my pay grade.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FINALLY finished smoking/roasting that pork shoulder, took 15 hours. Way longer than I had thought it would take, but omg it's good. Anyway, it's noticeably warm out right now. Not looking forward to heating up again over the next few days, but at least I'll be int he office come Monday instead of out in the field.

image.png.000008de407f1389a6081b2e77c91726.png

I'm testing chrome in dark mode now. Kinda like it, kinda still getting used to it...

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My low so far this morning had been 70 and just as the temp was slowly starting to creep up a bit, in came a little pop up shower that was much appreciated.  It wasn't really expected given the warm front had already passed through here and formed a line that barreled through Jersey.

Currently getting some light rain (0.03" so far) and 69, with dp 67.

radar14-07252021.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Newman said:

*I am posting this as advice as we head closer to winter and in general. I posted this all in another board (NYC-centric) and wanted to share here too*

This is why using pre-1980 analogs simply do not work anymore in the warmer climate we now have. First of all, you have to take into account most NOAA/NCEP reanalysis data compiles anomalies based off certain climate eras, most notably being 1981-2010. So, here I will show you a very simple graph demonstrating the increase in temperature at the KJFK location since 1950:

1990438539_KLGAAnnualMaxTempGraph.png.d511d172452f11eebaa6633f7c9b8d84.png

 

So, obviously even a 2-3 degree increase will skew anomaly results dramatically. I went through Quasi-Biennial Oscillation data and pulled out all the winter years that featured moderate to significant averaged -QBO values (magnitudes of -10.00 or greater). I sorted them by 1950-1990 and 1991-2020. There were 10 cases I pulled out for the earlier time step and 7 for the more recent one. *Disclaimer* -> I am aware that synoptic and global atmospheric conditions are more than just dependent on the QBO. However, it has been postulated that -QBOs typically feature/favor lower averaged 500hPA heights over the United States and higher averaged 500hPa heights over the higher latitudes. Below you'll see the resultant maps:

oHopSi5VAa.png.7bb03d1206a9dcf404f01de83c9bf095.png

fV9Ob5tNLO.png.1c12240f7a5a2c36b628ab45de776a7b.png

 

My first thought when comparing these maps was the obvious smearing of much lower heights all across the board in the 1950-1990 time frame. Why is this? Because of a changing climate. You CAN NOT compare early early years in available data sets to current 1981-2010 climate averages. You will skew everything towards lower heights/colder averages. It's as simple as that. Also, it would be hard to dismiss there are *some* similarities to the two. Noticeably the lower averaged heights in China and Europe. However, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish whether or not the placement or trends of higher heights is by chance or reason. In the 1950-1990 map, the usual '-QBOs create higher heights in the high latitudes and colder weather in the mid-latitudes' notion could be supported by the data (however, perhaps caused by the skewing therefore not supporting it). In the 1991-2020 map, it is very hard to pick out any lower heights/colder areas in North America. Regardless of it all, if anything this exercise goes to show that analogs from before 1980 (that might be generous, maybe even 1990) should not be used or compiled into modern era anomaly maps/charts/graphs to avoid unnecessary skewing. I know lots of y'all know this, however if you go around on twitter or other boards and come across this... please ignore whoever posted it.

As an anecdotal observation, and obviously not a solid prediction for some future extreme event given the issues in the arctic region that can move the PV into odd locations, but KPHL has not recorded a below 0F temp since January 19, 1994 (which was a -5 during an arctic outbreak that impacted the midwest to the east coast).

For us gardeners, it makes a difference in terms of the average of the yearly lowest min temps (over some "x" period of time) with respect to plant hardiness for temperate plants, and what might be planted that could survive (and thrive) in this area. And those values are part of what gets factored into the USDA hardiness zones.  The last closest-to-0 temp more recently, was a +2 on February 20, 2015.

Of course that is the "airport" temperature.  But there has definitely been an upward shift in temps - and moreso seen in the lows in winter.  In summer, the average night lows have also slowly edged up as well, but regarding the highs, it appears that will depend on the antecedent precipitation and ground moisture, which usually precludes our getting the occasional triple digit temps.  In fact, believe it or not, the last triple digit temp at KPHL was almost 10 years ago - a 101 on July 07, 2012.  Going into a summer with drought conditions definitely improves the chance of triple digits, but the general climatology here doesn't get us to that point with any consistent frequency when compared to other parts of the country, and proximity to the ocean is probably a big reason why.

And as a sidenote - yesterday afternoon, I was watching a seabreeze front come all the way inland, cut across Jersey, hop over the river, and slam right into NE Philly. :D

radar10-07242021.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...