Northof78

Possible Major Winter Storm/Coastal 3/6 - 3/8

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35 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

models will flip and flop, and could be a flop, but give me fresh cold air, Neg NAO, and some juiced disturbances in March, and I’ll take my chances for something good...

I wouldn't totally give up on next weekends possible east coast storm - there is a storm offshore and a few times this season already after first showing potential the models lose the storm only to go back to previous more promising solutions within a few days of the event - if you look closely at the 500mb vorticity - notice anything familiar preventing this storm from coming more north and closer to the coast ???

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png500hv.conus.png

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EPS is coming back closer but long ways to go with GEPS/GEFS nil so far, as well as the NAEFS.  What is becoming somewhat evident is a northwest flow reinforcing cold front that may have a clipper like low attached and a bit of light snow for the forum, mainly north of LI/80. Far distant i time but not complete closure. I'm more interested in the northwest flow reinforcing clipper potential while EPS has a close call large-strong ocean storm for the shoreline only. 

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19 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I guess it's just a different world there. I'm only 45 miles by way of the crow north of NYC and at elevation of  620 feet, most of Orange County is 500 to 1000 feet above sea level except those towns right on the river, and I had 50 inches of snow March 2, 2018 through April 2, 2018. The first three weeks of March is just a continuation of winter here in most years. Very different climates in this sub forum.

it's also all this damned urbanization.  Hopefully the green movement gets rid of the concrete.

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18 hours ago, Snowzone said:

I'm about 15 miles NW of NYC at an elevation of 255 feet above sea level and received a total of 31 inches of snow from March 2, 2018 - April 2, 2018

That April storm was my favorite, even though the late March event had more snow (the April storm was 6" pure snow while the late March storm was 8" slop changing to snow.)

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18 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Yep. I remember reading a memoir by a woman whose husband moved them all to Maine. She had to drive up with the kids in April from MD, and she rain into a snowstorm in ME; she writes that she didn't know it at the time, but April is still a winter month in upper ME. She left the guy. In NYC and points southeast, snows above 10 inches are not common in March. But then, they really weren't that common at any time in years past; someone posted here, an 8 inch storm in the mid-70's and the traffic report in the city, like 8 inches was a really big deal. Prior to 1978, it was!

also after 1983 8 inches was a big deal and until 1993

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51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and Para almost pulled it off

Euro OP made a significant  move west and stronger and more organized at 0Z compared to 12Z here - it just has to move about 200 - 250 miles west and this is a coastal storm - upper air dynamics has to change further in order to tuck the surface feature closer in  towards the coast instead of kicking it out to sea before it has a chance of gaining latitude.....12Z runs today are critical -at least hold steady or keep trending in the right direction-- seems like the 2 best models to trust in this situation IMO are the EURO suite - OP - EPS etc and the GFSv16 's..........

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png500hv.conus.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png500hv.conus.png

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the 12Z GFS16v surface feature is once again slightly west of where it was at 06Z BUT the interaction on the 500mb vorticity is not good enough yet....

prateptype_cat.conus.pngprateptype_cat.conus.png500hv.conus.png

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At this point, even as it is a week away, I believe there is only a low probability of an impactful snowfall (4" or more) in the general New York City area (NYC-JFK-LGA-EWR and suburbs).

First, there has been very little support among the ensemble members for such an event. Run-to-run continuity has been good. One would typically see a clustering of ensemble members. That there was a seemingly errant prior GFSv16 run does not give much confidence. The global models are also in good and continuing agreement right now.

Second, the AO is forecast to rise sharply (probably between +2.000 and +3.000) during this event. Interestingly enough, all 6 cases where storms brought 4" or more snow to NYC in the 3/1-15/1950-2020 period with an AO of +2.000 or above have occurred since 2009. However, the forecast 500 mb pattern resembles none of those cases.

Third, there is some uncertainty concerning the timing of any phasing/partial phasing. However, if there were meaningful potential of favorable timing, one should start seeing it on individual ensemble members. Support on such members has been very limited (first point).

The timeframe involved is really the only significant factor arguing for possible changes. But all things considered above, a suppressed solution seems to be the most likely outcome.

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At this point, even as it is a week away, I believe there is only a low probability of an impactful snowfall (4" or more) in the general New York City area (NYC-JFK-LGA-EWR and suburbs).

First, there has been very little support among the ensemble members for such an event. Run-to-run continuity has been good. One would typically see a clustering of ensemble members. That there was a seemingly errant prior GFSv16 run does not give much confidence. The global models are also in good and continuing agreement right now.

Second, the AO is forecast to rise sharply (probably between +2.000 and +3.000) during this event. Interestingly enough, all 6 cases where storms brought 4" or more snow to NYC in the 3/1-15/1950-2020 period with an AO of +2.000 or above have occurred since 2009. However, the forecast 500 mb pattern resembles none of those cases.

Third, there is some uncertainty concerning the timing of any phasing/partial phasing. However, if there were meaningful potential of favorable timing, one should start seeing it on individual ensemble members. Support on such members has been very limited (first point).

The timeframe involved is really the only significant factor arguing for possible changes. But all things considered above, a suppressed solution seems to be the most likely outcome.

Any idea when NYC will have their opportunity to get the 1.4 inches of snow they need to reach 40 inches for the season ?

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5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Any idea when NYC will have their opportunity to get the 1.4 inches of snow they need to reach 40 inches for the season ?

Best guess: second half of March, but no guarantees.

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1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

So, do we still have anything with this or should we move on and look at any possible threats after next week?

IMO, we should move on. The guidance suggests little has changed. The storm will be suppressed.

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, we should move on. The guidance suggests little has changed. The storm will be suppressed.

I agree.  Have looked and looked and thru the 14th, think there is little to pique my interest.  I'm turning to the long rangers hereon, for a look at MJO and potential 15th onward?  It seems the jet is depressed a bit after the 13th, and whiles AO and NAO are positive, timing could be everything as as the mid south gets wet again.   I haven't quite given up on Sunday (late?) rom the northwest flow, (light event) but for now, no modeling support, so it's best to move on, I think. 

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On 3/1/2021 at 11:36 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Best guess: second half of March, but no guarantees.

March 20-23 if past history is to be any guide (and it should be, as storms seem to cluster around specific dates.)

 

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