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2021-2022 ENSO


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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would suggest looking at there snowfall totals from my main analogs, but as a guess, near normal temps and slightly above average snowfall.

I would take 4-6 inch snow all winter, which is our average 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take a look at 2017-2018, 2000-2001 and 2005-2006.

Jan 2018 was real cold here. Highs in teens a few days. Dec 2000 had two ice storms. 2006 in February had two winter storms. Dec and January was mild then

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In terms of snowfall totals, it will probably be closer to 2011-2012 through much of SNE and the mid atl. 1995-1996 was so highly anomalous.

enso only has a 20% impact on our weather, nao blocking is far more important.  2010-11 was another even stronger la nina with a lot of snow.  There are other examples like 1955-56 and 2017-18

 

 

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Last year, the Fall had some resemblance to how February played out. Will be interesting to see how if that repeats this year. These are both my normal scale - +7 for deep red, -7 for deep purple, in increments of two degrees. Cold on the West Coast in February is conceptually similar to what I had in my winter outlook. It's also similar to Februaries +1 year after similar levels of cold to February 2020 (think 1936, etc).

Image

Image

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La Nina warming (weakening) has stopped for now. If we switch back to cooling for December, that will be another feather in the cap for the 2011 comparison below the surface. 

Image

I'm not sure where people get this image, but I saw Larry Cosgrove quote it, so might as well show it here:

Screenshot-2021-11-22-5-19-43-PM

ONI weeklies at the surface are a bit more cold than I would have guessed. Month to date, still no comparison to last year at the surface. Keep in mind, on the monthly data, last year finished 25.28C at the surface in Nino 3.4

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 06OCT2021     21.0 0.2     24.7-0.3     26.1-0.6     28.0-0.7
 13OCT2021     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.7     26.0-0.8     28.1-0.5
 20OCT2021     20.3-0.7     24.2-0.8     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.6
 27OCT2021     20.6-0.6     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.5
 03NOV2021     20.6-0.8     24.4-0.7     25.8-1.0     28.0-0.7
 10NOV2021     20.9-0.7     24.5-0.6     26.0-0.8     28.0-0.7
 17NOV2021     20.8-1.0     24.0-1.1     25.7-1.0     27.9-0.7
 07OCT2020     20.1-0.7     24.1-0.9     25.8-0.9     27.9-0.7
 14OCT2020     20.5-0.4     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     27.8-0.8
 21OCT2020     20.5-0.6     24.2-0.9     25.5-1.3     27.8-0.8
 28OCT2020     20.3-0.9     23.8-1.3     25.0-1.7     28.0-0.7
 04NOV2020     20.5-0.9     24.0-1.1     25.3-1.5     27.9-0.8
 11NOV2020     21.1-0.5     24.2-0.9     25.7-1.0     28.1-0.6
 18NOV2020     21.4-0.5     24.1-1.0     25.6-1.1     27.9-0.7

Image

Image

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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

La Nina warming (weakening) has stopped for now. If we switch back to cooling for December, that will be another feather in the cap for the 2011 comparison below the surface. 

Image

I'm not sure where people get this image, but I saw Larry Cosgrove quote it, so might as well show it here:

Screenshot-2021-11-22-5-19-43-PM

ONI weeklies at the surface are a bit more colder than I would have guessed. Month to date, still no comparison to last year at the surface. Keep in mind, on the monthly data, last year finished 25.28C at the surface in Nino 3.4

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 06OCT2021     21.0 0.2     24.7-0.3     26.1-0.6     28.0-0.7
 13OCT2021     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.7     26.0-0.8     28.1-0.5
 20OCT2021     20.3-0.7     24.2-0.8     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.6
 27OCT2021     20.6-0.6     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.5
 03NOV2021     20.6-0.8     24.4-0.7     25.8-1.0     28.0-0.7
 10NOV2021     20.9-0.7     24.5-0.6     26.0-0.8     28.0-0.7
 17NOV2021     20.8-1.0     24.0-1.1     25.7-1.0     27.9-0.7
 07OCT2020     20.1-0.7     24.1-0.9     25.8-0.9     27.9-0.7
 14OCT2020     20.5-0.4     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     27.8-0.8
 21OCT2020     20.5-0.6     24.2-0.9     25.5-1.3     27.8-0.8
 28OCT2020     20.3-0.9     23.8-1.3     25.0-1.7     28.0-0.7
 04NOV2020     20.5-0.9     24.0-1.1     25.3-1.5     27.9-0.8
 11NOV2020     21.1-0.5     24.2-0.9     25.7-1.0     28.1-0.6
 18NOV2020     21.4-0.5     24.1-1.0     25.6-1.1     27.9-0.7

Image

Image

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assorted-plots

This is where you get that second picture

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CFS has the wettest look for California I've seen it show since January 2017 at least. For anyone who saw my outlook, I included 2001-02 in it as an analog. It's not a great analog in a lot of ways. But it has a big wet West December with similar warmth to 12/2020 overall, which is not super common as a look in cold ENSO years. 

Image

In October, when the subsurface was cooling for most of the month, it was wet in the West too. The CFS also seems to be rapidly trending toward a +WPO look, which is great for me, but a major warm signal for most of you. My sense for December when I did my forecast was November would have a +WPO look and flood Canada with warm air, nullifying the effect of the later blocking in December to some extent. The WPO didn't verify that way for November, but most of Canada is very warm month to date, so not sure it matters too much. Alaska actually has been cold this month, so any storms coming into the West from that region with a +WPO look could be cold/powerful in December.

Screenshot-2021-11-23-5-21-15-PM

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+AAM, these are Earth's rotation, associated with +ENSO. I always like to monitor AAM events, because they are associated with gravity waves, rotation differences, etc.. in theory. This state is usually more associated with +ENSO, and I think it's correlated to the subsurface warming. I wonder if we will get a 2nd +push under 165W in about ~14 days. 

https://ibb.co/5Bpwvrt

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've been hearing for two months about how this la nina is about to take off, blah, blah, blah.

It's a very well coupled weak event that has a chance to become moderate. That's all it is and all it was ever going to be in terms of ONI.

Ray, happy Thanksgiving. Since it's a weak niña coupled, do you think the niña being more east based currently with the -qbo could allow the mjo to propagate to other phases other than phases(4-6) for winter? Just curious 

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5 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Ray, happy Thanksgiving. Since it's a weak niña coupled, do you think the niña being more east based currently with the -qbo could allow the mjo to propagate to other phases other than phases(4-6) for winter? Just curious 

I mean, it's still basin wide....I don't think it's a huge deal, but if it keeps trending that way, it could help in the back half of winter by coupling a more favorable PAC with any sort of SSW.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, it's still basin wide....I don't think it's a huge deal, but if it keeps trending that way, it could help in the back half of winter by coupling a more favorable PAC with any sort of SSW.

This may not mean anything, but it looked interesting in region 1+2.

Screenshot_20211125-201629_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Remarkable dryness often shows up nationally in the biggest -PDO years:

Image

SOI crash ties in well with the GFS / Euro showing storms down here again in early December. We've already "beaten" 2017-18 which went 96 days starting 10/5 with no measurable rain or snow here.

Image

The CFS has completely backed off the wetness for California. I always thought the +6 inches was overdone, but I suspect it's gone a bit too hard the other way now - I was thinking near average for California in December based on my analogs with 2001 in there as the wet bounding outcome. More importantly, it's very warm in the East, unlike November. I saw a lot of people use 2000 and 2010 as analogs - those December look pretty wrong again, at least right now. Most of my analogs had the East get pretty cold, at least in comparison to early November, in the second half of the month, before warming in December. So that's all on track for me. November is going to feature a -WPO look on net, that was my issue this month, if it is flips back to neutral/positive like the CFS has, then it's going to be very warm. This La Nina still just isn't that impressive at the surface. You can see we're struggling to stay below 26.0C, and that's the warmest possible bound for a La Nina.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03NOV2021     20.6-0.8     24.4-0.7     25.8-1.0     28.0-0.7
 10NOV2021     20.9-0.7     24.5-0.6     26.0-0.8     28.0-0.7
 17NOV2021     20.8-1.0     24.0-1.1     25.7-1.0     27.9-0.7
 24NOV2021     21.0-1.0     24.3-0.8     26.0-0.7     27.9-0.7
 04NOV2020     20.5-0.9     24.0-1.1     25.3-1.5     27.9-0.8
 11NOV2020     21.1-0.5     24.2-0.9     25.7-1.0     28.1-0.6
 18NOV2020     21.4-0.5     24.1-1.0     25.6-1.1     27.9-0.7
 25NOV2020     21.4-0.7     23.9-1.2     25.4-1.3     27.8-0.8

MJO progression is also behaving according to my forecast from 10/10.  I had it waking up from incoherence as the La Nina weakened in late Fall. It's supposed to spend a fair amount of time in Phase 7 in December. I had a rotation in phase 5-8 (probably late) month, but it looks like that will happen early month. Current plot is roughly phase 5 12/1 and then phase 7 a week later.

ImageScreenshot-2021-11-21-7-07-52-PM

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 As shown above, the latest weekly Nino 3.4 warmed 0.3 C and is back up to -0.7 C. This means the chance at this La Niña ending up peaking as only weak (under -1.0) on an ONI (trimonthly max) basis has increased somewhat. I have been expecting a moderate peak (-1.0 to -1.4 based on 3 months of weeklies averaged out) but this new warming this late in autumn tells me it may not get there. In order to get a -1.0 or colder peak, the weeklies usually have to peak ~-1.2 to -1.3 or colder. The significance of that for SE/Mid Atlantic winters is that mild winters due to SE ridge domination have a good bit higher chance when La Niña is moderate or strong per analogs. But having only a weak La Niña would mean analogs that are closely balanced between AN, NN, and BN. Actually, after weak to moderate El Niño, your next best shot at a genuinely cold SE winter is weak La Niña. So, as one in the SE who prefers BN winters, I’m hoping it stays weak.

Kudos would be due for @40/70 Benchmark if it peaks as only weak.

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36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As shown above, the latest weekly Nino 3.4 warmed 0.3 C and is back up to -0.7 C. This means the chance at this La Niña ending up peaking as only weak (under -1.0) on an ONI (trimonthly max) basis has increased somewhat. I have been expecting a moderate peak (-1.0 to -1.4 based on 3 months of weeklies averaged out) but this new warming this late in autumn tells me it may not get there. In order to get a -1.0 or colder peak, the weeklies usually have to peak ~-1.2 to -1.3 or colder. The significance of that for SE/Mid Atlantic winters is that mild winters due to SE ridge domination have a good bit higher chance when La Niña is moderate or strong per analogs. But having only a weak La Niña would mean analogs that are closely balanced between AN, NN, and BN. Actually, after weak to moderate El Niño, your next best shot at a genuinely cold SE winter is weak La Niña. So, as one in the SE who prefers BN winters, I’m hoping it stays weak.

Kudos would be due for @40/70 Benchmark if it peaks as only weak.

Thanks Larry, but I was not alone by a long shot...many others, including @raindancewx never thought this event was that impressive at the surface. It is very well coupled with atmosphere, though. 

We will see...it still has a shot to sneak into moderate...it will be close, which was my thought all along (-.09 to -1.1 NDJ peak ONI).

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40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We will see what actually verifies in December. Not really into grading my outlooks based upon CFS progs, but rather reality verification. I had normal to slightly below in Dec, so CFS comes in about +2. Recent long range guidance has been running warm around here of late.

 

It's +2...Celsius. More like +4 Fahrenheit. When December is warm in the East in the past 20 years, it tends to be very warm...about +4. I would call 15 of the past 20 Decembers warm for the Northeast. Would only call 2017 cold in the past ten years though, despite every pattern you can imagine - super El Nino, La Ninas, weaker El Ninos, Neutrals, very +/- PDO states, brief periods of -AMO conditions, +PNA/-PNA, -AO/-NAO like last year, etc etc.

+4 in December would be a top 20 warm December for Boston in the past 100 years, if it verified verbatim.

Screenshot-2021-11-29-9-40-41-PM

Screenshot-2021-11-29-9-46-25-PM

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