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John1122

February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

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5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Thinking this is west TN and middle continues its streak of Nada.

Well in most cases, when Dallas gets snow, normally that comes right up through even middle Tennessee, I believe middle Tennessee will not be shut out of this event, just may not be all snow, may be lots of ice to deal with, I’m by no means a meteorologist but I have lived in the mid south all my life and more times than not, when it hits Dallas, it normally moves right through the mid south into middle Tennessee, now there are occasions that this has not happened but this is a very cold airmass, we are not dealing with marginal cold here.

 

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Thinking this is west TN and middle continues its streak of Nada.

Do you have anything positive to say? Always doom and gloom man


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Do you have anything positive to say? Always doom and gloom man


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If this made me as miserable as it seems to make him I would put it down for a while.


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Been a longtime lurker and member (under another name but couldn’t remember my password and for some reason could never get the email to reset so created another account) Just wanted to say thanks for the posts that include Mississippi in the discussions. I’ve learned a lot from everyone here just not enough to comment! LOL Will post observations though.

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If this made me as miserable as it seems to make him I would put it down for a while.


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Been a tough year for Nashville/Mid TN for sure but have two chances (obviously our best in the two years I’ve been in Nashville) to cash in this week. Really good opportunities for something to happen. If models are showing me half decent chances tomorrow I’m going to start getting pretty excited.


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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Now Tellicowx may say that this includes sleet and he is right, but let's just enjoy the pretty colors for now. 

Even the minuscule pretty gray burying knox county! 

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1 hour ago, Blue Moon said:

True, I understand. This is mostly an East Tennessee board it seems

Nope.  We just follow each threat.  Been middle and west for several days.  Totally fine with that BTW.

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The 12z CMC/RGEM is developing a low which takes the low road Tuesday.  Modeling seems to be split between sending some energy up the west slopes of the Apps and then developing a lee side low or hybrid Miller A OR just going with a Miller A.  Some fairly different solutions out there right now regarding Tuesday.  ICON/CMC camp vs GFS.

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1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

 We can make a new one or we can integrate into the thread westtnwx made.  I’m flexible either way.  If westtnwx doesn’t respond by lunch then we can make a new thread though.

I went ahead and edited the existing thread, if someone wants to make a new one I'm totally fine with that. Looking forward to the discussion either way.

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7 minutes ago, WestTennWX said:

I went ahead and edited the existing thread, if someone wants to make a new one I'm totally fine with that. Looking forward to the discussion either way.

Thanks, I’m cool with the existing thread for now.  If we get to Sunday and things are looking great then we may want to make a new thread just for historical reference since a lot of people like to go back through our winter storm threads for data, learning material, etc.  

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33 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If you liked that gray, you'll surely like the National Blend of Models:

ODKFg8a.png

Thanks for all you do brotha, and I really appreciate you sharing all these maps with us!  It doesn’t go unnoticed or unappreciated I assure you!

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38 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If you liked that gray, you'll surely like the National Blend of Models:

ODKFg8a.png

Could you post that for on down in Mississippi?

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Just now, Blue Moon said:

Hope that's a good event for y'all down there.

Looks to be mostly freezing rain for my side of the State. Not looking forward to that! 

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For eastern folks, I do have at least give mild attention to this 12z CMC look for Tuesday.  The slp(as is) is likely too weak.  However, if that strengthens even a little...that is not benign for the eastern valley IMHO.  That is different from what we have seen recently.  Modeling has trending towards this inland runner during the past few runs.  The para has a similar look but runs a shadow up through the eastern valley which is no good.  If the CMC consolidates, that is good.  Might just be a hiccup, but the RGEM was pretty much there as well at 84.

1055539838_ScreenShot2021-02-12at12_22_39PM.png.8afc09c66fc5f54dea703b6e40411c48.png

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I was thinking that as much as we like to give modeling a hard time(me included), they have been remarkably steady for this.  Obviously, I am hoping for a shift for MBY....but they aren't moving much.  The CMC is the first hiccup which I have seen.

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Trying to keep up.... hasn’t mods vs reality been to far NW this year? Seems like I remember this and I believe I read on here that someone felt the same way.


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The 18z RGEM is tracking an areas of weak slp from the Panhandle of FL through the Carolina Piedmont with seemingly little energy transfer.  Back side of the slp switches to light snow in ETN.  It is on the eastern envelope of storm tracks not implausible.  The EPS at 12z moved several of its slp member tracks into the same vicinity as the RGEM.

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Not calling for a storm IMBY yet, but I think the jury is still out on how this SLP system develops on Tuesday.  Here are the comparison runs for the 12z EPS 90 and 96 time frames compared to 6z.  Notice the shift south and east.  New is on the left.  There has been a trend towards moving this area of weak slp to our SE and reducing or eliminating energy coming west of the Apps.  May or may not hold, but that is the trend on some modeling.  Notice that at 6z many SLPs went through E TN and into WVA.  At 12z, many went from central Georgia and into the Carolina Piedmont.

81186466_ScreenShot2021-02-12at4_43_58PM.png.d5299e5654b886933cb17be35d9959b5.png

237761863_ScreenShot2021-02-12at4_44_09PM.png.6ec1ee3765ba3972b24f7ec50b25645e.png

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