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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.


John1122
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1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

To say this would not be catastrophic and dangerous with that much ice and cold temps to me is an understatement.

Will depend on precip amounts.  The orientation of that axis and slow movement of the front could be a problem.  But definitely don't want to lose power and then have record cold.  The CMC does not push as much cold eastward FWIW.  Stalls the boundary which is why it is bad in terms of zr.

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The 12z GFS not any better over middle TN.  Looks like the 12z suite really wants to stall the boundary right at the Plateau or Apps - take your pick.  Looks like modeling is wanting to come out of phase 7 on the MJO into the COD with phase 8 as a background state.  Certainly looks like what we are seeing on modeling right now.  

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Holston has to be thinking right now...might be time to schedule a trip to Kingsport and the EB.  

Yeah for sure. Although I remember a few ice storms right on the Holston River in west Kingsport.  I’m hugging the 0z para Euro right now (posted on the SE forum in the mid - long term disco) 

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12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is crazy, man.  I am just looking at who doesn't have ice so I can show up unannounced like Cousin Eddie.  

I don't know, Carver's; looking at that map we may be in he best spot possible! ;) Is that area of less zr from Johnson City to near Wytheville caused by the warm air taking longer to be scoured out after being trapped by the front or are the Apps wringing out moisture? Or the TEC dome?  Oh and be sure to get yourself something REAL nice! 

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

People better stock up on beer and cigs, cause the police ain’t bringing em. 

Holston, in case you didn't hear that full story, that was an actual announcement made on the radio (WQUT) several times during the Blizzard of 93! I'm honored that Stovepipe keeps it alive in his signature! :D

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If the upcoming potential ice storm does happen, it reminds me a lot of the storm we had back in Feb 2015, at least IMBY. We had ice and snow, followed by very cold weather and it hung around for awhile. Now the one being modeled on the CMC is much worse. Also, I had an ice, wolverine claw form over several days next to my house back then.

 

Ice Claw.jpg

Ice Claw 2.jpg

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