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January 7 - 8 ULL potential


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21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Tough call for MRX with narrow window between heavy snow or nothing.  The graphic reflects it pretty well saying basically zero to several inches possible. 

Could be anything from nothing, to lollipops, do a full fledged winter storm.  Tough call.  Glad I don't have to make it!!!!

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Haven't been watching today as closely as others, has the system trended north or south?  Lots of times bowling ball lows tend to jog north at the last minute.  Just seems like right now modeling is generally spitting out all kinds of solutions in the general vicinity of western NC,  M TN,  and E TN.

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Haven't been watching today as closely as others, has the system trended north or south?  Lots of times bowling ball lows tend to jog north at the last minute.  Just seems like right now modeling is generally spitting out all kinds of solutions in the general vicinity of western NC,  M TN,  and E TN.

Slightly south and east vs yesterday. But I think it is just model bounce due to the nature of the system being much more unpredictable than a normal system. 

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31 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks pretty on NT Microphysics GOES 16 imagery:

giphy.gif

 

I am a fan of the low level NE flow evident over WV and KY

It’s always good to have a NE flow when your looking for snow! At least it seems to be.

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13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro:

omm6l3c.png

 

How it gets there:

giphy.gif

Looks very similar to 3km NAM.  Concerned about the hrrr coming in so snowless for East TN but it’s prone to random runs like that. 
 

I think at 12z this morning we should get better model agreement. 

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There's a "pivot zone" that has been showing up on models. Some put it over NE TN (Euro, NAM 3km, WRF-ARW to an extent), some put it over the central plateau (GFS para), some put it over the Knox - Hamblen area (NAM 12km, WRF-ARW2 to an extent), some have it over NW NC (RAP). I don't know exactly how to describe it, but where ever that occurs, that's the area that gets hit the hardest. 

 

Using the Euro to show this, just because it was easier to make and mark up gifs with it:

Here is the 500mb circulation, notice a lil lobe of vorticity kinda sort schamybe does the fujiwara dance with the main lobe:

giphy.gif

That might be helping pull some dynamics up the eastern valley to intersect with deepish moisture:

giphy.gif

 

Even at 850mb there is a little bit of vorticity that wobbles on the run over the eastern valley:

giphy.gif

 

So you get this:

giphy.gif

 

850 flow turns Northerly too, so Johnson City/ Elizabethton, Erwin...and... dare I say it...Flag Pond would probably keep snowing with upslope. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

There's a "pivot zone" that has been showing up on models. Some put it over NE TN (Euro, NAM 3km, WRF-ARW to an extent), some put it over the central plateau (GFS para), some put it over the Knox - Hamblen area (NAM 12km, WRF-ARW2 to an extent), some have it over NW NC (RAP). I don't know exactly how to describe it, but where ever that occurs, that's the area that gets hit the hardest. 

 

Using the Euro to show this, just because it was easier to make and mark up gifs with it:

Here is the 500mb circulation, notice a lil lobe of vorticity kinda sort schamybe does the fujiwara dance with the main lobe:

giphy.gif

That might be helping pull some dynamics up the eastern valley to intersect with deepish moisture:

giphy.gif

 

Even at 850mb there is a little bit of vorticity that wobbles on the run over the eastern valley:

giphy.gif

 

So you get this:

giphy.gif

 

850 flow turns Northerly too, so Johnson City/ Elizabethton, Erwin...and... dare I say it...Flag Pond would probably keep snowing with upslope. 

 

Yeah the 3km 06z is a beautiful example of this. Looks like a bowling ball of heavy precip just rotating over portions of Eastern and NE TN.  Most models do have that and the EURO has consistently shown it.  
hopefully we can get the hrrr back on board

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so the HRRR ticked north which its not even in its wheelhouse yet.

12km NAM came in really bullish

and the 3km is now much less bullish haha 

 

I feel like all this flipping around is just indicative of the mesoscale nature of this one.  We may never get a uniform solution across models until right at game time tonight. It really feels like we are tracking individual supercells on the long range hrrr and 3km nam with how much they are jumping haha.

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