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josh_4184

2020-2021 LES Thread

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8 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Lake effect is always weird in terms of measurement.  Very high winds can cut down on the fluff factor, as can a low DGZ causing more plate-dominant snow.  Think you'd need 25:1 ratio at least to get three feet out of any model output.  Lake effect is always better than 10:1, but you need temps in the mid 20s and wind under 15 mph to get the crazy 20:1 ratio dendrite-dominant feather-fluff.  Even then it doesn't really feel like as much as the official measurement because when it gets deeper than 6" it settles fast under it's own weight even within 6-12 hours of falling.

You just described LES fairly well.  The fluff factor is something most people outside the lakes don't really comprehend.  The nearly 80" I average in a normal year here is not like Iowa getting 80" in a year.  Look at WeatherBo.  He gets 200"+ but depth never gets anywhere near that.

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28 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

You just described LES fairly well.  The fluff factor is something most people outside the lakes don't really comprehend.  The nearly 80" I average in a normal year here is not like Iowa getting 80" in a year.  Look at WeatherBo.  He gets 200"+ but depth never gets anywhere near that.

Agreed. Most LES accumulation never even  comes close to snowpack depth. I average 150-175" a year and usually only for about 1/3  of winter do I 30"+ depth, my area usually runs between 12-24 average depth. With that being said, depending on 850 flow(NW or WNW for my area)  and being able to lock in for a day or so I have seen 2-3' easily in my area over a couple day period now that doesn't mean I will have a 3' snow pack due to compression but it will still be fairly deep especially with the 10" of glacier I have now. When snowmobiling around my area it was  not uncommon to find areas near my house of chest deep snow untouched especially in wind/sun protected areas  With the lakes as wide open as they are for this time of year with the cold coming in it will pile up, but the extreme cold and small flake size will cut back accumulation. 

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17 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Agreed. Most LES accumulation never even  comes close to snowpack depth. I average 150-175" a year and usually only for about 1/3  of winter do I 30"+ depth, my area usually runs between 12-24 average depth. With that being said, depending on 850 flow(NW or WNW for my area)  and being able to lock in for a day or so I have seen 2-3' easily in my area over a couple day period now that doesn't mean I will have a 3' snow pack due to compression but it will still be fairly deep especially with the 10" of glacier I have now. When snowmobiling around my area it was  not uncommon to find areas near my house of chest deep snow untouched especially in wind/sun protected areas  With the lakes as wide open as they are for this time of year with the cold coming in it will pile up, but the extreme cold and small flake size will cut back accumulation. 

Lake effect snow off of Erie is the wettest of the great lakes. Our ratios are usually 1:15 to 1:20. I think it has to do with being the southern most lake and higher lake temps on average for events. A lot has to do with the flow of the wind. NW wind is usually higher ratio snow due to colder conditions. I get hit with W/SW wind which is usually not as cold resulting in lower ratios.

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake effect snow off of Erie is the wettest of the great lakes. Our ratios are usually 1:15 to 1:20. I think it has to do with being the southern most lake and higher lake temps on average for events. A lot has to do with the flow of the wind. NW wind is usually higher ratio snow due to colder conditions. I get hit with W/SW wind which is usually not as cold resulting in lower ratios.

Yea for my area earlier in the season for LES it tends to be more moisture rich with ratios around 15-1, as winter progresses and the lakes cool and the colder air comes it the snow tends to be more powdering like talcum powder. Doesn't accumulate as well and is a biT*& to see when driving in stronger bands.  Of course a lot of this depends on the how cold the 850s are, how much RH, and if the snow is in the cloud layer or pushed to the deck creating much smaller dendrites. 

With that being said I am looking forward to our best setup of the year for decent LES.

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4 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

If only the GFS would verify.  Nearly 3' IMBY.  However the Euro says no way.  Give me less than 12".  Either way, definitely looking to double my YTD snowfall and maybe more.

 

3 hours ago, frostfern said:

Lake effect is always weird in terms of measurement.  Very high winds can cut down on the fluff factor, as can a low DGZ causing more plate-dominant snow.  Think you'd need 25:1 ratio at least to get three feet out of any model output.  Lake effect is always better than 10:1, but you need temps in the mid 20s and wind under 15 mph to get the crazy 20:1 ratio dendrite-dominant feather-fluff.  Even then it doesn't really feel like as much as the official measurement because when it gets deeper than 6" it settles fast under it's own weight even within 6-12 hours of falling.

From GRR:

High confidence in Arctic air outbreak Sunday through at least
the middle part of the following week, but the daily details are
still unclear. Still some suggestion of a synoptic system possibly
developing along the baroclinic zone to our south Saturday
night/Sunday which may lead to some some synoptic snows followed
by lake effect with several more inches possible. However the
latest ECMWF now has quite a bit of sfc ridging moving in early
next week which could limit the lake effect potential. If that
did occur though, winds would be lighter and wind chills would
not be as brutal than if strong westerly flow persists as
suggested by the GFS. Other complicating factor farther out in
terms of daily specifics and additional snow amounts is whether
or not any clipper systems will be dropping in from the northwest.

How's the lake effect snow totals looking like for sunday and monday? NWS mentioned above that it could be limited. I am in kzoo

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21 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake effect snow off of Erie is the wettest of the great lakes. Our ratios are usually 1:15 to 1:20. I think it has to do with being the southern most lake and higher lake temps on average for events. A lot has to do with the flow of the wind. NW wind is usually higher ratio snow due to colder conditions. I get hit with W/SW wind which is usually not as cold resulting in lower ratios.

Snow from a single dominant band may have updrafts strong enough to cause significant riming of flakes.  Places in northern and western Michigan don't get those kinds of bands most of the time.  It's typically persistent light snows from weaker bands with some orographic enhancement added in the slightly higher areas up north. 

Also, immediate GRR area gets a lot of nickle-and-dime 2-3" snowfalls that add up to more when measured over days than if the same liquid were to fall in a single 24 hour period.  The relationship between depth and liquid content isn't linear.  Seems more logorithmic to me with fluffy snow as the bottom layers compress under the weight of new snow added on top, especially when you get over 6".  This biases smaller snowfalls to higher ratios than big ones.

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Watches in place for first event

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 9 inches or more in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  during the heaviest lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday
  could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing
  and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday.

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Watches in place for first event

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 9 inches or more in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  during the heaviest lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday
  could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing
  and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday.

I do find it interesting how much earlier NWS Buffalo hoists headlines then APX. Also it does seem odd how they use both Lake Effect Snow warnings and Winter Storm warnings for the same weather events:. Most of Michigan NWS's switched over 100 percent to Winter Weather and Storm warnings for all snow events synoptic or LES.

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29 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

I do find it interesting how much earlier NWS Buffalo hoists headlines then APX. Also it does seem odd how they use both Lake Effect Snow warnings and Winter Storm warnings for the same weather events:. Most of Michigan NWS's switched over 100 percent to Winter Weather and Storm warnings for all snow events synoptic or LES.

I really wish they would seperate Lake effect snow watches/warnings from winter storm watches/warnings. They are inherently quite different, especially around here with one place getting a few feet while others get a few inches. I don't understand why they changed something that was working. The 1st event starts Friday Night, so figured all watches should be up by now.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I really wish they would seperate Lake effect snow watches/warnings from winter storm watches/warnings. They are inherently quite different, especially around here with one place getting a few feet while others get a few inches. I don't understand why they changed something that was working. The 1st event starts Friday Night, so figured all watches should be up by now.

I think the whole idea was to have consistency for headlines for people wouldn't get confused, a lot of people travel don't even know what LES is let alone a warning. However it seems that NWS BUF hasn't fully adopted it and doesn't do any favors by picking which headline they use for LES depending on the forecaster it seems.

With that being said GRR seems pretty bullish on the LES chances which is fairly rare it seems for them. A poster eelier was posting a previous AFD from them stating LES would be cut back due to riding. Today they say:


--Lengthy cold snap, coldest yet this winter--

The cold Arctic air mass is expected to impact the Great Lakes
Region through the end of next week. High temps will be mostly in
the teens with lows in the single digits or below zero and wind
chills often below zero. It`s been quite a while since we`ve had
a lengthy stay of air this cold and winter has been fairly
tranquil so far, so definitely a big change. Ice on area rivers
and lakes will continue to grow... see hydro section below.

--Snow piles up over the next week--

Westerly flow lake effect snows are likely to persist into Friday
night and Saturday with additional accumulations near and west of
131. Then we get another Arctic front coming through on Saturday
which may produce a widespread/areawide 1-2" snowfall, followed by
additional lake effect yet again in wrn sections Saturday night.

After that, the thing to watch will be a clipper system sliding
through southern sections Sunday night and perhaps even another
synoptic snow event for Monday night. Some locations over wrn Lwr
MI could easily end up with two feet or more of new snow by this
time next week.

 

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1 minute ago, josh_4184 said:

Lake Michigan still wide open for business very little ice if any pretty rare this time of year.

a1.21033.1848.LakeMichigan.143.250m.jpg

Lake Erie being wide open in February is extremely rare. Only a little bit of ice near Cleveland. Should have about 2 weeks or so of open waters as that cold air means business.

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake Erie being wide open in February is extremely rare. Only a little bit of ice near Cleveland. Should have about 2 weeks or so of open waters as that cold air means business.

NWL: Lake Mich usually take a while to freeze compared to shallow Erie but to not have Green bay covered with ice this late in the season is pretty crazy. Areas downwind of Ontario are going to get hammered. 

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2 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

NWL: Lake Mich usually take a while to freeze compared to shallow Erie but to not have Green bay covered with ice this late in the season is pretty crazy. Areas downwind of Ontario are going to get hammered. 

Yeah Erie is at 33 degrees still some places are still at 38 degrees. Very rare. I think 2 weeks from now we will be looking at 80% ice on Erie.

image.png.ebc78c1d67d0165380bbaab237a3dd50.png

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2 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Lake Michigan still wide open for business very little ice if any pretty rare this time of year.

a1.21033.1848.LakeMichigan.143.250m.jpg

Was that Satellite pic from today? Looking closely I can see our lake, Higgins looks mostly open unless there hasn’t been any snow since it actually locked up a few days ago which now that I think about it is probably the case. Crazy Green Bay is still open that much also, with the wind direction expected to be mostly from the west this weekend north west lower around Petoskey and Harbor Springs should get hit pretty hard. We actually have to drive from Higgins to Harbor Springs Friday morning, that drive might be a little rough.

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1 hour ago, slow poke said:

Was that Satellite pic from today? Looking closely I can see our lake, Higgins looks mostly open unless there hasn’t been any snow since it actually locked up a few days ago which now that I think about it is probably the case. Crazy Green Bay is still open that much also, with the wind direction expected to be mostly from the west this weekend north west lower around Petoskey and Harbor Springs should get hit pretty hard. We actually have to drive from Higgins to Harbor Springs Friday morning, that drive might be a little rough.

Lakes are completely open for business.

image.png.7fd963fd41bafb94dc681f099d7f1d47.png

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lakes are completely open for business.

image.png.7fd963fd41bafb94dc681f099d7f1d47.png

Sorry Buffalo, was referring to Higgins lake, it’s a inland lake in northern lower MI. 

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Just now, slow poke said:

Sorry Buffalo, was referring to Higgins lake, it’s a inland lake in northern lower MI. 

Np, but yes that picture was taken today. Should have some epic snowmobile conditions next 2 weeks up in Michigan!

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Np, but yes that picture was taken today. Should have some epic snowmobile conditions next 2 weeks up in Michigan!

I’m sure you’re area will get some serious snow in the next couple weeks with the lake open and all this cold air coming in. Area’s to our west and east have really done well in the snow department lately compared to Michigan. I can’t remember the last time MI has had weather worthy enough for someone for the weather channel to visit for. Hopefully that will change and winter can finish up strong in its final 5 weeks or so.

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3 minutes ago, slow poke said:

I’m sure you’re area will get some serious snow in the next couple weeks with the lake open and all this cold air coming in. Area’s to our west and east have really done well in the snow department lately compared to Michigan. I can’t remember the last time MI has had weather worthy enough for someone for the weather channel to visit for. Hopefully that will change and winter can finish up strong in its final 5 weeks or so.

Places in New York have been getting insane snowfall totals from synoptic systems. We've only had 2 LES events total here in WNY on the year. One in Dec and one In January. Binghamton had an event where places got 40-45" and then this last storm places in central NY got 30". We've been in the synoptic desert here in WNY. Central/Eastern NY is where its at this winter.

image.png.b5bdf13221d58fe958444e1783112dbb.png

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4 minutes ago, slow poke said:

I’m sure you’re area will get some serious snow in the next couple weeks with the lake open and all this cold air coming in. Area’s to our west and east have really done well in the snow department lately compared to Michigan. I can’t remember the last time MI has had weather worthy enough for someone for the weather channel to visit for. Hopefully that will change and winter can finish up strong in its final 5 weeks or so.

One of The Weather Channel guys wasn't Detroit for the February 9, 2018 snowstorm. Friend of mine who works downtown saw him while they were doing one of their segments. I honestly don't even know what channel The Weather Channel is on my cable network lol.

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3 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Holy shit.

I was going post yesterday, but forgot to do it, that I haven't heard a peep out of Will or bo lately. I figured that GFS clown would get a rise out of them.

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10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

One of The Weather Channel guys wasn't Detroit for the February 9, 2018 snowstorm. Friend of mine who works downtown saw him while they were doing one of their segments. I honestly don't even know what channel The Weather Channel is on my cable network lol.

Didn’t know that, I must have missed it. Different strokes for different Folks I guess, I enjoy the weather channel, always have. I don’t watch any news so what little TV I do catch is TWC and a movie or Discovery channel in the evening. I enjoy weather no matter where it’s at, our weather in Michigan is so boring and Stagnant most of the time I need to get my exciting weather fix somewhere, can’t look out my window at feet of snow like Chicago or New York people can.

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1 hour ago, slow poke said:

Didn’t know that, I must have missed it. Different strokes for different Folks I guess, I enjoy the weather channel, always have. I don’t watch any news so what little TV I do catch is TWC and a movie or Discovery channel in the evening. I enjoy weather no matter where it’s at, our weather in Michigan is so boring and Stagnant most of the time I need to get my exciting weather fix somewhere, can’t look out my window at feet of snow like Chicago or New York people can.

TWC should have been here Nov 11 last year.. That was a historic storm for its time of year (8-12" Detroit area, up to 18" in the thumb after les).

Definitely different strokes for different folks. When the weather is boring my weather fix is looking at old stats/weather data, trying to find pictures, news articles, etc. I would consider Michigan one of the least "stagnant" areas of weather because it's usually active. Not necessarily big storms but unsettled weather in the Great Lakes is far more common than elsewhere. The zzzz stretch that encompassed much of January was quite rare. As for deep snow? it's going to vary on year.  in the past 20 years, 9 winters saw deeper snow in Detroit than Chicago with 8 winters Chicago seeing deeper (3 were a tie). 10 winters Detroit saw deeper than NYC and 10 NYC saw deeper. As you would expect, Detroit saw the most days with snow on the ground, followed by Chicago, then new york. The takeaway is ALL 3 of those places (and im sure many more) have seen far more frequent double digit snow depth the past few decades than climatology would suggest. The only thing that sucks more than crappy winters is crappy winters after you've been spoiled. 

 

What's really funny is that with an active pattern going forward it is absolutely attainable for Detroit to finish above avg snow :lol:

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“We`re likely looking at a quarter to half inch per hour type snow west of US-131. Over the course of a couple of days, it`ll add up to close to a foot in some locations, perhaps more in others. As is usually the case with lake effect, substantially less snow...4 to 6 inches...is expected east of US-131 through the weekend.”

-GRR

Looks like I gotta go to the up north house this weekend. Family has a beautiful place on the Pere Marquette between Ludington and Baldwin. Should b buried. 

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