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18Z GFS is just chock full of snow chances but not too terribly cold but definitely cold enough for snow, oh and quite a few chances for a WNW-NW wind flow regime so LE chances are looking better and better.  For instance after Sundays debacle, our LE chances ramp up day after day so we'll see what happens!

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7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

18Z GFS is just chock full of snow chances but not too terribly cold but definitely cold enough for snow, oh and quite a few chances for a WNW-NW wind flow regime so LE chances are looking better and better.  For instance after Sundays debacle, our LE chances ramp up day after day so we'll see what happens!

Canadian's been showing that too. The models from across the big pond to the east don't agree.

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Sunday will bring the next opportunity for wintry weather. A
trailing southern stream upper wave sharpens northeast into the
upper Ohio Valley/eastern Great Lakes as it phases with a shallow
longwave Northern Stream trough. The resulting low pressure system
will bring a weak warm front across the area. There is model
discrepancy with regards to the track of the system and how much
isentropic upglide occurs, as the newest model guidance has
temperatures aloft trending towards warmer, more marginal values.
Areas on the higher terrain in the Southern Tier could see some
freezing rain or a wintery mix early Sunday morning, before the
secondary cold front moves in from the west and brings a changeover
to mostly snow. As the upper level low passes over the associated
surface low, it will become vertically stacked and weaken, causing
precip to become more spotty through the day and into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lingering snow showers will be possible as the area of low pressure
and trough continue to slowly track east. Temperatures will be
marginal in the mid to low 30s on Monday, some rain mixing in with
any snow is not out of the question. Any precip that does fall
should be light across the area.

From Tuesday onward is where some of the spread in the model
guidance begins to become more noticeable. A deepening longwave
trough and sfc wave drop southeast and bring a cold front across the
Great Lakes for Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest model guidance has
noticeable discrepancies with the timing and intensity of this
feature, with the GFS and Canadian predicting a much more
progressive system. However, most guidance follows the sfc low with
some form of lake effect that could linger all the way through
Wednesday morning. Went with chance POPs for the WNY area for
Tuesday and tapered off to slight chance POPs through Wednesday
morning.

Model guidance diverges further going into Thursday and Friday, as
an upper level closed low potentially forms near the Oklahoma
panhandle and tracks Northeast. This feature looks to stay south of
the area for now, but will need to keep an eye on the track as newer
data comes in.

Temperatures during the Monday through Thursday period should
generally be in the mid to upper 30s for the lower elevations, and
in the low to mid 30s for the higher elevations.
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